Kawakami: Yes, the Warriors could still add some big names — but there are issues

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Just about everybody else has done something, but so far not the Warriors, who are either very content, strategically quite patient, just a bit stuck, or parts of all three.

The scorecard, though, is undeniable: In the first days of this player-movement cycle, 28 other teams (including everybody else in the Western Conference) have made at least one roster move or signing, and most have been far more active than that. For instance, the Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, and Phoenix Suns are all in double digits in the comings-and-goings count.

But nothing yet for the Warriors, whose singular mark on the transom is the loss of beloved veteran Kevon Looney to the New Orleans Pelicans. There’s only one other team without a listed signing or trade through Wednesday evening — the Indiana Pacers, who made it to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, horrifically watched Tyrese Haliburton go down with an Achilles tear, and just Tuesday stunningly lost Myles Turner to a deal with the Milwaukee Bucks. We’ll go ahead and say that the Pacers have been in their own kind of whirlwind.

So the Warriors are the only silent team. For now. And even though the Warriors signaled last week that their payroll and roster situation basically removed them from realistic chances at the biggest kinds of deals this cycle, it’s understandable if their large fan base is getting more than a little antsy. Mike Dunleavy pulled a magic trick in February by acquiring Jimmy Butler. And now Warriors fans want more conjuring, of course.

By the way, I haven’t heard much from the Warriors’ brass through this period — they usually shut pretty tight when they’re in the middle of it — but what I have heard is that things are calm, and there is a strong belief in Dunleavy’s plotting and execution.

And yes, there are still ways for the Warriors to set off fireworks. Any team run by Dunleavy, who turned Klay Thompson’s free-agent departure last summer into three solid players coming back to the Warriors, and owned by Joe Lacob, who through the years has been intent on chasing almost every star available and several that weren’t, is always a threat to do extremely aggressive things.

What if you realized — as I’m sure the Warriors do — that there’s a highly unlikely but not impossible way to add LeBron James, Damian Lillard, and Al Horford, while also keeping Jonathan Kuminga? It certainly won’t all happen. Maybe none of it will. But each addition is allowable — albeit with specific CBA restrictions.

And going through each leg of this imaginary superfecta, I think, is a good way to explore the dynamics of why the Warriors’ offseason has been so quiet and what’s likeliest in the coming days — the things they want to do, the things they can do, the things they can’t and couldn’t, and the things they’re better off avoiding.

I’ve got to admit that while I was running through the Warriors’ options, I kept coming across separate ways for the Warriors to end up with these Elder Millennial stars and figured, hey, why not plop them all together and see what it looks like?

That’s how I got to this version of the Golden Oldies Warriors. Stephen Curry, LeBron, Draymond Green, Butler, Lillard, and Horford. Whew! Again: It won’t happen just like this. The Warriors are already old — Curry is 37, and Draymond and Butler are 35. Getting older would speed up the decline of the Curry era, not slow it down. And Lillard likely won’t even play again until the 2026-27 season, when he’ll be 35. So why would the Warriors want to get much, much older? Generally, they wouldn’t.

But Lillard is already available after he was waived and stretched by the Bucks on Tuesday, just a few months after his own terrible Achilles injury. LeBron may or may not be available after he opted into the last year of his deal with the Lakers and had his agent send out a passive-aggressive statement about the situation. Horford is somebody the Warriors reportedly have focused on and presumably is deciding among several similar offers. And Kuminga is in limbo because he and the Warriors haven’t agreed to a new deal, no other team has bid enough to get his attention, and his restricted free-agent status pretty much gums up everything.

Out of this group, I think Kuminga is the likeliest to be with the Warriors at the start of next season, Horford is next, and many things would have to happen before LeBron or Lillard are seriously in the Warriors’ target view.

Let’s go through each situation one by one.

Now that Deandre Ayton has reportedly agreed to a multiyear deal with the Lakers, who were even more desperate for a center than the Warriors, the Horford market might’ve clarified. I doubt that the Warriors are the only team still left in there, but they might be the most motivated.

However, there are solid reasons why this hasn’t happened already, and a big one could be tied to the Kuminga negotiations. The Warriors’ biggest available salary slot is the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception (TMPLE), but if they use it, they’ll hard cap their payroll at the second apron. They’re still a chunk away from the $207.8 million line, but if Kuminga receives a big offer sheet from another team, matching it likely would be illegal, because it would put the Warriors over the line. Which would mean the Warriors would lose Kuminga for nothing.

Dunleavy’s front office has been good at assessing the landscape — and multiple positional markets at a time — so I’m sure the Warriors want to time this all out. And that might mean saving the TPMLE until they know what’s happening with Kuminga or until they’ve decided they just have to move on.

But yes, the Warriors could really use Horford for this coming season. Plopping him — even at 39 — into the starting lineup alongside Curry, Draymond, Butler, and either Brandin Podziemski or Buddy Hield would not be a terrible situation for the Warriors.

It has to be tantalizing: Lillard coming back to the Bay Area on a two-year deal, rehabbing his leg at the Warriors’ facility, being around his former coach Terry Stotts, and looming as a possible playoff wild-card this season (if he’s ready) or, more likely, a monster backup to Curry in 2026-27.

After the release, Lillard is already guaranteed the remaining $113 million on his deal and presumably would be fine with a veteran-minimum contract if he chooses to sign with a team this season. Damian Lillard, even if he has to miss a year, at that kind of discount? Wow.

But that missing-a-year thing would not be a minor issue for the Warriors, who have carried 14 players on the roster (instead of the maximum 15) for most of the last two seasons to save luxury-tax dollars, and need viable bench players for the games that older stars are due to miss. Also, every dollar they’d pay Lillard would be multiplied by the tax formula, again, for someone who probably won’t play next season. That’s not ideal, even if you factor in two-way guys who could absorb some of those necessary minutes.

Now, if the Warriors could get under the luxury-tax line, that changes the dynamics. ESPN’s Marc Spears reported that the Warriors have contacted Lillard, and I imagine it might’ve been with that condition — if they can get under the tax line, they’d sure like to talk to him. But how would they do that? The quickest way would be to let Kuminga walk for nothing. And losing an asset for nothing is just not the Warriors’ style; they’re likely going to either bring Kuminga back on a short-term deal or get another player back in a trade for him. Either way, they’ll probably stay in the tax … which would make a luxury stashing of Lillard very pricey.

You can’t deny the Warriors’ continued interest in uniting Curry with LeBron. They talked about it in July 2016 immediately after losing to the Cavaliers in the Finals (and ended up signing Kevin Durant — not a terrible one-two list!), and just over a year ago the Warriors seriously chased a trade for LeBron. The Lakers shrugged and said it was up to LeBron, who didn’t want to do it then.

Would LeBron embrace it this time, after winning a gold medal with Curry and Steve Kerr last summer? You never know with LBJ, who might just be putting pressure on the Lakers for more roster upgrades or might actually be looking to go. I don’t know if I’d put the Warriors at the top of potential destinations if LeBron really starts to push the get-me-outta-here alarm, but they’re on the list for sure.

On the Warriors’ side, though, there’s a complication. Back in ’24, they had Klay’s and Chris Paul’s expiring contracts to facilitate any trade for LeBron’s max salary, and they had Andrew Wiggins’ value to add. They later used most of that flexibility and value to get Butler and were extremely happy with the results.

The only practical way they could match LeBron’s salary in a trade now is if they send out Butler, which I am quite sure the Warriors do not want to do. I’m not saying they don’t think LeBron, even at 40, is better than Butler. But the Warriors’ leaders love how Butler fit in with Curry and Draymond and played for Kerr, and they’ve got Butler signed for two more seasons. Plus, because Butler is signed for one more year than LeBron and isn’t as valuable, I think the Lakers would want something more. I don’t know that the Warriors would be ready to do that.

I don’t think a LeBron trade is imminent, anyway. If it does happen, I don’t think it’ll be to the Warriors. But as the season goes on and LBJ gets closer to unrestricted free agency, I’d wonder about this some more.

Yes, this will get resolved. At some point. Right?

Here’s my guess at one potential thorny issue: The Warriors might need to toss in one or two future first-round picks to get a multi-team sign-and-trade past the finish line, and I think they’re understandably resistant to that idea.

It’s not just about protecting themselves down the line, though Dunleavy absolutely has to do that. The Warriors don’t want to become the Suns — stuck without enough talent on the roster and without the future picks to try to get great young talent. If the Warriors give up picks beyond Curry’s time with the team, any one of them could end up as a top-five selection.

But also, these future picks should be saved for a truly momentous deal, the way Dunleavy held back this year’s first-rounder, then used it in the Butler trade.

What if Giannis Antetokounmpo becomes available in the next year or so? The Warriors don’t have nearly as much to trade as, say, Houston, but what if Giannis, a long-time Curry admirer, just wants to get to the Bay Area? If that happens, the Warriors’ best trade pieces would be their future first-round picks. That is, presuming they haven’t already coughed them up for marginal gains before they knew what else might be coming down the pike.