Mike Ege

At this week’s meeting, the Board of Supervisors is poised to pass housing legislation that likely won’t amount to a great deal of new housing. That includes an upzoning plan that was introduced by Supervisor Rafael Mandelman, but <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/fourplexpalooza-continues-supes-wrestle-with-westside-development/">picked apart in committee</a>. Supervisors will also examine how, or if, Laguna Honda Hospital can get back on its feet. (As always, wonks looking for the full kit and caboodle can check out the <a href="https://sfbos.org/sites/default/files/bag061422_agenda.pdf">complete agenda</a>.)

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At this week’s meeting, the Board of Supervisors is poised to pass housing legislation that likely won’t amount to a great deal of new housing. That includes an upzoning plan that was introduced by Supervisor Rafael Mandelman, but <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/fourplexpalooza-continues-supes-wrestle-with-westside-development/">picked apart in committee</a>. Supervisors will also examine how, or if, Laguna Honda Hospital can get back on its feet. (As always, wonks looking for the full kit and caboodle can check out the <a href="https://sfbos.org/sites/default/files/bag061422_agenda.pdf">complete agenda</a>.)

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-so-much-for-housing">So Much for Housing</h2>

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<h2 id="h-so-much-for-housing">So Much for Housing</h2>

When Mandelman introduced legislation last year to <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/a-fourplex-on-each-lot-in-debate-over-upzoning-sfs-westside-one-proposal-emerges-as-the-strongest/">legalize denser housing</a> in districts zoned for single-family homes, there was some optimism among housing advocates. Since that time, the legislation has endured the political equivalent of development hell, with multiple amendments in committee and at the Planning Commission. The result premieres tomorrow, for better or worse.&nbsp;

When Mandelman introduced legislation last year to <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/a-fourplex-on-each-lot-in-debate-over-upzoning-sfs-westside-one-proposal-emerges-as-the-strongest/">legalize denser housing</a> in districts zoned for single-family homes, there was some optimism among housing advocates. Since that time, the legislation has endured the political equivalent of development hell, with multiple amendments in committee and at the Planning Commission. The result premieres tomorrow, for better or worse.&nbsp;

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Over time, supervisors offered amendments aimed at creating varying levels of affordability requirements; these evolved into making new units developed under the ordinance subject to rent control and other potentially onerous restrictions.</li></ul>

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<ul><li>Over time, supervisors offered amendments aimed at creating varying levels of affordability requirements; these evolved into making new units developed under the ordinance subject to rent control and other potentially onerous restrictions.</li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The Planning Commission suggested amendments which are, at best, a mixed blessing for the original goals of the ordinance. The current version will allow duplexes in districts zoned for single-family housing, but in doing so also exempt San Francisco from state laws that expedite approval for such projects. That means a return to the discretionary permitting model favored by NIMBYs.</li></ul>

<ul><li>The Planning Commission suggested amendments which are, at best, a mixed blessing for the original goals of the ordinance. The current version will allow duplexes in districts zoned for single-family housing, but in doing so also exempt San Francisco from state laws that expedite approval for such projects. That means a return to the discretionary permitting model favored by NIMBYs.</li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Also on tap tomorrow is legislation from District 3 Supervisor Aaron Peskin that would essentially ban certain kinds of efficiency studio apartment projects in the Tenderloin and Chinatown. It’s been paired politically with the upzoning legislation, so both are expected to pass.</li></ul>

<ul><li>Also on tap tomorrow is legislation from District 3 Supervisor Aaron Peskin that would essentially ban certain kinds of efficiency studio apartment projects in the Tenderloin and Chinatown. It’s been paired politically with the upzoning legislation, so both are expected to pass.</li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The two bills are the latest round in the city&#8217;s <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/city-hall/housing-shell-game-supes-latest-actions-set-to-slow-new-housing-as-state-mandate-looms/">housing policy shell game</a> that housing advocates, including Mayor London Breed and state legislators like State Senator Scott Wiener, say supervisors have been playing against their wishes and those of the public.&nbsp;</li></ul>

<ul><li>The two bills are the latest round in the city's <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/city-hall/housing-shell-game-supes-latest-actions-set-to-slow-new-housing-as-state-mandate-looms/">housing policy shell game</a> that housing advocates, including Mayor London Breed and state legislators like State Senator Scott Wiener, say supervisors have been playing against their wishes and those of the public.&nbsp;</li></ul>

<ul><li>The two bills are the latest round in the city&#8217;s <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/city-hall/housing-shell-game-supes-latest-actions-set-to-slow-new-housing-as-state-mandate-looms/">housing policy shell game</a> that housing advocates, including Mayor London Breed and state legislators like State Senator Scott Wiener, say supervisors have been playing against their wishes and those of the public.&nbsp;</li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Another showdown over the future of housing in the city is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/rent-control-on-new-units-sped-up-construction-and-new-housing-governance-at-city-hall-promised-by-supes-in-raft-of-fall-ballot-measures/">coming to the November ballot</a>. The mayor and a coalition of housing advocates are gathering support for Affordable Homes Now, which seeks to expedite many affordable and market-rate housing projects. </li></ul>

<ul><li>Another showdown over the future of housing in the city is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/rent-control-on-new-units-sped-up-construction-and-new-housing-governance-at-city-hall-promised-by-supes-in-raft-of-fall-ballot-measures/">coming to the November ballot</a>. The mayor and a coalition of housing advocates are gathering support for Affordable Homes Now, which seeks to expedite many affordable and market-rate housing projects. </li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>District 1 Supervisor Connie Chan has fielded a rival measure with more stringent affordability requirements. Meanwhile, Peskin has proffered a measure that would expand rent control to certain types of new housing, and District 5 Supervisor Dean Preston has a measure that would spin off and reorganize the Mayor’s Office of Housing.</li></ul>

<ul><li>District 1 Supervisor Connie Chan has fielded a rival measure with more stringent affordability requirements. Meanwhile, Peskin has proffered a measure that would expand rent control to certain types of new housing, and District 5 Supervisor Dean Preston has a measure that would spin off and reorganize the Mayor’s Office of Housing.</li></ul>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-saving-laguna-honda-again">Saving Laguna Honda, Again</h2>

<h2 id="h-saving-laguna-honda-again">Saving Laguna Honda, Again</h2>

Tuesday’s Board meeting will also feature a special hearing at 3:00 p.m. on the fate of Laguna Honda Hospital, which faces closure and the eviction of its patients after <a href="https://sfstandard.com/public-health/the-last-alms-house-laguna-honda-faces-daunting-overhaul-to-satisfy-federal-regulators/">months of escalating federal warnings</a> over conditions at the facility.

Tuesday’s Board meeting will also feature a special hearing at 3:00 p.m. on the fate of Laguna Honda Hospital, which faces closure and the eviction of its patients after <a href="https://sfstandard.com/public-health/the-last-alms-house-laguna-honda-faces-daunting-overhaul-to-satisfy-federal-regulators/">months of escalating federal warnings</a> over conditions at the facility.

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Laguna Honda currently houses about 700 patients receiving different kinds of long-term care, from rehabilitation to hospice care. It’s the kind of facility that most other cities have given up on. The hospital has been in operation in one form or another for over 150 years.&nbsp;</li></ul>

<ul><li>Laguna Honda currently houses about 700 patients receiving different kinds of long-term care, from rehabilitation to hospice care. It’s the kind of facility that most other cities have given up on. The hospital has been in operation in one form or another for over 150 years.&nbsp;</li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Federal regulators had issued a number of warnings to the facility over deficits in sanitation, patient monitoring, administration and other issues. These culminated in a decision by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to terminate Laguna Honda’s participation in its programs, which provides up to two-thirds of the hospital’s budget. A closure notice was issued in May, and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/public-health/laguna-honda-hospital-patients-hit-with-mass-eviction-notices-as-city-fights-to-avert-closure/">patients are in danger of eviction</a>. </li></ul>

<ul><li>Federal regulators had issued a number of warnings to the facility over deficits in sanitation, patient monitoring, administration and other issues. These culminated in a decision by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to terminate Laguna Honda’s participation in its programs, which provides up to two-thirds of the hospital’s budget. A closure notice was issued in May, and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/public-health/laguna-honda-hospital-patients-hit-with-mass-eviction-notices-as-city-fights-to-avert-closure/">patients are in danger of eviction</a>. </li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>In 1999, the last time the facility fell under federal scrutiny, 73% of San Francisco <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Laguna-Honda-launches-campaign-for-bond-measure-3068420.php">voters approved a $300 million bond</a> to rebuild the hospital.</li></ul>

<ul><li>In 1999, the last time the facility fell under federal scrutiny, 73% of San Francisco <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Laguna-Honda-launches-campaign-for-bond-measure-3068420.php">voters approved a $300 million bond</a> to rebuild the hospital.</li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The hearing will review Laguna Honda’s plans for recertification, and interim plans for closure and shifting of patients. There will be a presentation by the Department of Public Health, and very likely commentary by supervisors and members of the public on the future of the hospital.&nbsp;</li></ul>

<ul><li>The hearing will review Laguna Honda’s plans for recertification, and interim plans for closure and shifting of patients. There will be a presentation by the Department of Public Health, and very likely commentary by supervisors and members of the public on the future of the hospital.&nbsp;</li></ul>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-budget-process-goes-smoothly-for-now">Budget Process Goes Smoothly—For Now</h2>

<h2 id="h-budget-process-goes-smoothly-for-now">Budget Process Goes Smoothly—For Now</h2>

Supervisors will also likely approve interim budget and salary ordinances so that the city can keep operating while they review the main budget. The interim ordinances were passed out of a special Budget and Appropriations Committee meeting last Friday with recommendation.&nbsp;

Supervisors will also likely approve interim budget and salary ordinances so that the city can keep operating while they review the main budget. The interim ordinances were passed out of a special Budget and Appropriations Committee meeting last Friday with recommendation.&nbsp;

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>On June 1, <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/city-hall/explainer-how-sf-hammers-out-its-27-8-billion-two-year-budget/">Mayor Breed submitted a new budget of $27.8 billion</a> for the next two years. It includes funding for new police officers, new shelter resources, economic help for small businesses and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/city-hall/budget/police-city-workers-small-businesses-get-a-boost-in-breeds-14b-budget-proposal/">across the board pay raises for city workers</a>. </li></ul>

<ul><li>On June 1, <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/city-hall/explainer-how-sf-hammers-out-its-27-8-billion-two-year-budget/">Mayor Breed submitted a new budget of $27.8 billion</a> for the next two years. It includes funding for new police officers, new shelter resources, economic help for small businesses and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/city-hall/budget/police-city-workers-small-businesses-get-a-boost-in-breeds-14b-budget-proposal/">across the board pay raises for city workers</a>. </li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The Supervisors’ budget review process continues at Budget and Appropriations Committee meetings this Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, where budget proposal presentations will be made by each city department. </li></ul>

<ul><li>The Supervisors’ budget review process continues at Budget and Appropriations Committee meetings this Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, where budget proposal presentations will be made by each city department. </li></ul>

<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Of special note, the Department of Public Works will be among presentations on Wednesday; the Department of Homelessness and Supportive Housing will present on Thursday; and the Police Department on Friday.</li></ul>

<ul><li>Of special note, the Department of Public Works will be among presentations on Wednesday; the Department of Homelessness and Supportive Housing will present on Thursday; and the Police Department on Friday.</li></ul>

Supervisors preview: It takes a Potemkin Village

Sarah Wright

With the clock ticking on a state mandate to allow the creation of 82,000 more housing units over the next decade in a city that desperately needs them, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, rather than finding new ways to build housing, continues to make moves that discourage new construction.

With the clock ticking on a state mandate to allow the creation of 82,000 more housing units over the next decade in a city that desperately needs them, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, rather than finding new ways to build housing, continues to make moves that discourage new construction.

The latest escapade involves a bill to allow fourplexes to be built on all residential lots, an effort prompted by a new state law that outlaws single-family zoning. The board’s Land Use and Transportation Committee will take up the bill again Monday after punting on the issue earlier this month, but there’s little hope that the end result will be more housing.

The latest escapade involves a bill to allow fourplexes to be built on all residential lots, an effort prompted by a new state law that outlaws single-family zoning. The board’s Land Use and Transportation Committee will take up the bill again Monday after punting on the issue earlier this month, but there’s little hope that the end result will be more housing.

That’s because the debate has not centered on how to encourage people to build fourplexes, but rather on what kinds of affordability and rent-control requirements should apply if these units do indeed get built. Such mandates, included in competing fourplex proposals, are all but certain to make any such developments economically infeasible, developers and economists say.

That’s because the debate has not centered on how to encourage people to build fourplexes, but rather on what kinds of affordability and rent-control requirements should apply if these units do indeed get built. Such mandates, included in competing fourplex proposals, are all but certain to make any such developments economically infeasible, developers and economists say.

“It’s absurd,” said Michael Harris, a local architect who is working with a family that is taking advantage of the new state law to build an in-law unit and expand a home on Seneca Avenue. Harris said that if his client had to comply with affordability requirements, the project would have been dead before it even began. “You know how much it costs to build in San Francisco? If the city wants affordable stuff, the city should pay for it.”

“It’s absurd,” said Michael Harris, a local architect who is working with a family that is taking advantage of the new state law to build an in-law unit and expand a home on Seneca Avenue. Harris said that if his client had to comply with affordability requirements, the project would have been dead before it even began. “You know how much it costs to build in San Francisco? If the city wants affordable stuff, the city should pay for it.”

Supervisor Aaron Peskin is also working to pair any fourplex bill with legislation that would restrict the development of some cheaper, dorm-like group housing projects in parts of the city—restrictions that would be illegal under state law unless they are accompanied by the loosening of zoning restrictions elsewhere (such as allowing fourplexes).&nbsp;

Supervisor Aaron Peskin is also working to pair any fourplex bill with legislation that would restrict the development of some cheaper, dorm-like group housing projects in parts of the city—restrictions that would be illegal under state law unless they are accompanied by the loosening of zoning restrictions elsewhere (such as allowing fourplexes).&nbsp;

The end result, according to advocates of more construction, is likely to be few, if any, fourplexes, fewer group housing projects and zero progress on the housing crisis.

The end result, according to advocates of more construction, is likely to be few, if any, fourplexes, fewer group housing projects and zero progress on the housing crisis.

The board has also yet to grapple with the next phase of the state-mandated effort—<a href="https://www.sfweekly.com/news/bay-area-takes-step-toward-major-housing-growth/">led by the city’s own state legislator, Sen. Scott Wiener</a>—to ease restrictive zoning and boost housing production: allowing taller buildings on major thoroughfares in the western part of the city and allowing more multi-family buildings near all transit corridors.

The board has also yet to grapple with the next phase of the state-mandated effort—<a href="https://www.sfweekly.com/news/bay-area-takes-step-toward-major-housing-growth/">led by the city’s own state legislator, Sen. Scott Wiener</a>—to ease restrictive zoning and boost housing production: allowing taller buildings on major thoroughfares in the western part of the city and allowing more multi-family buildings near all transit corridors.

Progressive supervisors maintain that they are working as hard as they can to get affordable housing built, pointing out that it&#8217;s that segment of the market where the city is failing to meet state mandates. They say efforts to promote the construction of housing at all affordability levels might increase the housing supply for wealthier households but do little to chip away at high costs for the city’s lower wage earners.

Progressive supervisors maintain that they are working as hard as they can to get affordable housing built, pointing out that it's that segment of the market where the city is failing to meet state mandates. They say efforts to promote the construction of housing at all affordability levels might increase the housing supply for wealthier households but do little to chip away at high costs for the city’s lower wage earners.

Progressive supervisors maintain that they are working as hard as they can to get affordable housing built, pointing out that it&#8217;s that segment of the market where the city is failing to meet state mandates. They say efforts to promote the construction of housing at all affordability levels might increase the housing supply for wealthier households but do little to chip away at high costs for the city’s lower wage earners.

Those were among the arguments that led the board earlier this year to vote down two large projects totaling over 800 units—nearly 140 of which would have been affordable—that were years in the making and had already been approved by the city’s Planning Commission.&nbsp;

Those were among the arguments that led the board earlier this year to vote down two large projects totaling over 800 units—nearly 140 of which would have been affordable—that were years in the making and had already been approved by the city’s Planning Commission.&nbsp;

Debate rages over market-rate housing&nbsp;

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-debate-rages-over-market-rate-housing">Debate rages over market-rate housing&nbsp;</h2>

<h2 id="h-debate-rages-over-market-rate-housing">Debate rages over market-rate housing&nbsp;</h2>

Housing advocates are livid over what they view as a pattern of smoke and mirrors where the board’s progressive wing shrouds anti-housing policy in language that looks and feels pro-housing or anti-gentrification but isn’t.&nbsp;

Housing advocates are livid over what they view as a pattern of smoke and mirrors where the board’s progressive wing shrouds anti-housing policy in language that looks and feels pro-housing or anti-gentrification but isn’t.&nbsp;

“The Board of Supervisors is a clown car that wants to do everything they can to make it harder to build housing here,” said Corey Smith, deputy director of the Housing Action Coalition. “Saying that you think the only thing we should be building is 100% affordable housing sounds pro-housing to some people, but people who are educated on the issue know that that means you don’t want any housing.”&nbsp;

“The Board of Supervisors is a clown car that wants to do everything they can to make it harder to build housing here,” said Corey Smith, deputy director of the Housing Action Coalition. “Saying that you think the only thing we should be building is 100% affordable housing sounds pro-housing to some people, but people who are educated on the issue know that that means you don’t want any housing.”&nbsp;

Progressive supervisors argue that pro-housing advocates are simply advancing the gentrification agenda of developers and downtown business interests while the city lags on building affordable housing.

Progressive supervisors argue that pro-housing advocates are simply advancing the gentrification agenda of developers and downtown business interests while the city lags on building affordable housing.

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Supervisor Dean Preston, a former tenant-rights lawyer who is vilified by YIMBYs as a housing obstructionist, argues that the YIMBYs are simply carrying the flag for developers and that more market-rate housing will do nothing to solve the affordability crisis.&nbsp;

Supervisor Dean Preston, a former tenant-rights lawyer who is vilified by YIMBYs as a housing obstructionist, argues that the YIMBYs are simply carrying the flag for developers and that more market-rate housing will do nothing to solve the affordability crisis.&nbsp;

“You’re effectively arguing for a trickle-down housing approach,” Preston said. “I think that’s a fairytale that makes sense for developer lobbyists to argue. But as a policymaker, that’s not a solution to affordability in San Francisco.”

“You’re effectively arguing for a trickle-down housing approach,” Preston said. “I think that’s a fairytale that makes sense for developer lobbyists to argue. But as a policymaker, that’s not a solution to affordability in San Francisco.”

Preston cites <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/San-Francisco-s-Proposition-I-tax-increase-on-15699780.php">Proposition I,</a> which he sponsored and which may raise as much as $176 million annually in revenue in its first three years, as an example of a sweeping policy that could actually make housing more affordable in the city. The tax, which was approved by voters in 2019, was sold as a pool of money to allow the city to buy housing units and manage them as part of a portfolio of affordable options.&nbsp;

Preston cites <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/San-Francisco-s-Proposition-I-tax-increase-on-15699780.php">Proposition I,</a> which he sponsored and which may raise as much as $176 million annually in revenue in its first three years, as an example of a sweeping policy that could actually make housing more affordable in the city. The tax, which was approved by voters in 2019, was sold as a pool of money to allow the city to buy housing units and manage them as part of a portfolio of affordable options.&nbsp;

Preston accused Mayor London Breed’s office of refusing to commit to use the funds for that purpose.&nbsp;

Preston accused Mayor London Breed’s office of refusing to commit to use the funds for that purpose.&nbsp;

“I think the board has taken the lead on fighting for affordable housing in particular and approving all kinds of housing,” Preston said. “The critics will attack nonstop and the mayor will accuse the board of being <a href="https://sfstandard.com/city-hall/breed-highlights-sfs-resilience-recovery-in-state-of-the-city-address/">obstructionist</a> over one CEQA appeal on one thing and say nothing about the thousands of units of housing both market-rate and affordable that the board approves without fanfare.”

“I think the board has taken the lead on fighting for affordable housing in particular and approving all kinds of housing,” Preston said. “The critics will attack nonstop and the mayor will accuse the board of being <a href="https://sfstandard.com/city-hall/breed-highlights-sfs-resilience-recovery-in-state-of-the-city-address/">obstructionist</a> over one CEQA appeal on one thing and say nothing about the thousands of units of housing both market-rate and affordable that the board approves without fanfare.”

One of Preston’s own constituents, UC Berkeley political science professor David Broockman, says the math belies those claims.&nbsp;

One of Preston’s own constituents, UC Berkeley political science professor David Broockman, says the math belies those claims.&nbsp;

In a <a href="https://nimby.report/preston">report</a> titled “Dean Preston’s Housing Graveyard,” compiled by Broockman, Vitor Bacetti and Alex Taylor, the researchers found that the supervisor has approved fewer than one home in his district per day since he took office. (Broockman made clear the report was a personal project and not part of his work at UC Berkeley.)

In a <a href="https://nimby.report/preston">report</a> titled “Dean Preston’s Housing Graveyard,” compiled by Broockman, Vitor Bacetti and Alex Taylor, the researchers found that the supervisor has approved fewer than one home in his district per day since he took office. (Broockman made clear the report was a personal project and not part of his work at UC Berkeley.)

Plummeting rents during the pandemic may be a signal&nbsp;

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Plummeting rents during the pandemic may be a signal&nbsp;</h2>

<h2>Plummeting rents during the pandemic may be a signal&nbsp;</h2>

A key tenet of progressive housing policy is that building more market-rate housing will have little or no impact on rents or prices, especially for the city’s lowest-income residents—and can result in gentrification that ultimately raises prices for everyone.&nbsp;

A key tenet of progressive housing policy is that building more market-rate housing will have little or no impact on rents or prices, especially for the city’s lowest-income residents—and can result in gentrification that ultimately raises prices for everyone.&nbsp;

But a <a href="https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/">research review</a> out of the UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies on this very question found that adding more market-rate housing does in fact drive down prices. Not only that, new market-rate housing has a healthy “filtering” effect as new residents move in and vacate their more affordable homes, said researcher Shane Phillips, a co-author of the review.

But a <a href="https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/">research review</a> out of the UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies on this very question found that adding more market-rate housing does in fact drive down prices. Not only that, new market-rate housing has a healthy “filtering” effect as new residents move in and vacate their more affordable homes, said researcher Shane Phillips, a co-author of the review.

He compares the housing market to the used car market—where prices skyrocketed due to&nbsp;temporary supply constraints during the pandemic—to illustrate just how big an effect even small changes in supply can have on prices.&nbsp;

He compares the housing market to the used car market—where prices skyrocketed due to&nbsp;temporary supply constraints during the pandemic—to illustrate just how big an effect even small changes in supply can have on prices.&nbsp;

The pandemic also provided what scientists call a “natural experiment” on the impact of changes in demand on housing rents. San Francisco lost 6.7% of its population during the first 15 months of the pandemic, <a href="https://sfstandard.com/community/san-francisco-pandemic-population-decline-census/">according to census data</a>. During that time, asking rents in San Francisco plunged by as much as 25%.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The pandemic also provided what scientists call a “natural experiment” on the impact of changes in demand on housing rents. San Francisco lost 6.7% of its population during the first 15 months of the pandemic, <a href="https://sfstandard.com/community/san-francisco-pandemic-population-decline-census/">according to census data</a>. During that time, asking rents in San Francisco plunged by as much as 25%.&nbsp;&nbsp;

That’s not to say that building more affordable housing isn’t needed, Phillips said, or that the history of racist zoning in San Francisco and across the country shouldn’t be a factor in development. But it isn’t a zero-sum game.&nbsp;

That’s not to say that building more affordable housing isn’t needed, Phillips said, or that the history of racist zoning in San Francisco and across the country shouldn’t be a factor in development. But it isn’t a zero-sum game.&nbsp;

“The reality is there is a ton of land we could be building housing on, and the idea that blocking market housing from being produced is somehow benefiting affordable housing is just wrong,” Phillips said.&nbsp;

“The reality is there is a ton of land we could be building housing on, and the idea that blocking market housing from being produced is somehow benefiting affordable housing is just wrong,” Phillips said.&nbsp;

To Supervisor Rafael Mandelman, it’s not an either-or. He wants to see the board approve more market-rate housing and the city get better at executing on affordable housing initiatives. He says it’s his job as a supervisor to figure out how to increase density in the city while preserving neighborhood character.&nbsp;

To Supervisor Rafael Mandelman, it’s not an either-or. He wants to see the board approve more market-rate housing and the city get better at executing on affordable housing initiatives. He says it’s his job as a supervisor to figure out how to increase density in the city while preserving neighborhood character.&nbsp;

“We’re not going to meet our RHNA goals relying entirely on public subsidies,” Mandelman said, referring to the Regional Housing Needs Assessment, the housing goal passed down from the state.

“We’re not going to meet our RHNA goals relying entirely on public subsidies,” Mandelman said, referring to the Regional Housing Needs Assessment, the housing goal passed down from the state.

Market-rate developments in San Francisco have to offer somewhere between 15% and 25% affordable units, or provide offsetting funding for affordable housing; thus, many involved in the field say that building more affordable housing actually requires building more market-rate housing, too.

Market-rate developments in San Francisco have to offer somewhere between 15% and 25% affordable units, or provide offsetting funding for affordable housing; thus, many involved in the field say that building more affordable housing actually requires building more market-rate housing, too.

Harris, who has been working as an architect for 40 years, said slapping affordability requirements on small-scale projects ensures they won’t pencil out.&nbsp;

Harris, who has been working as an architect for 40 years, said slapping affordability requirements on small-scale projects ensures they won’t pencil out.&nbsp;

“There’s no economy of scale for (affordability minimums on) a two-unit building,” Harris said. “There’s no way you’re going to make up on one what you’re going to lose on the other.”

“There’s no economy of scale for (affordability minimums on) a two-unit building,” Harris said. “There’s no way you’re going to make up on one what you’re going to lose on the other.”

Showdown looms over state mandates

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Showdown looms over state mandates</h2>

<h2>Showdown looms over state mandates</h2>

The board’s inaction on housing comes as big deadlines loom. Due in May 2023 is an updated “housing element” to the city’s general plan, which is required by the state. Crafted by the city’s planning department, it’s supposed to lay out how the city will manage its zoning and planning policies over the next eight years to assure sufficient housing.

The board’s inaction on housing comes as big deadlines loom. Due in May 2023 is an updated “housing element” to the city’s general plan, which is required by the state. Crafted by the city’s planning department, it’s supposed to lay out how the city will manage its zoning and planning policies over the next eight years to assure sufficient housing.

In a <a href="https://www.sfhousingelement.org/housing-element-2022-update-highlights">new draft</a> published March 25, the planning department recommends rezoning moves like removing density limits and increasing building height allowances in west side neighborhoods along key transit arteries—plus an effective fourplex bill—to get it done. The board now has little over a year to sign off on it.

In a <a href="https://www.sfhousingelement.org/housing-element-2022-update-highlights">new draft</a> published March 25, the planning department recommends rezoning moves like removing density limits and increasing building height allowances in west side neighborhoods along key transit arteries—plus an effective fourplex bill—to get it done. The board now has little over a year to sign off on it.

And the state has raised the stakes by a lot.&nbsp;

And the state has raised the stakes by a lot.&nbsp;

At the time of the last general plan in 2014, the state required the city to enable the construction of 28,869 units by the end of this year. Next year, that number shoots up to 82,000 by 2031.&nbsp;

At the time of the last general plan in 2014, the state required the city to enable the construction of 28,869 units by the end of this year. Next year, that number shoots up to 82,000 by 2031.&nbsp;

The state has also raised the <a href="https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-06/Consequences%20of%20Non-Compliance%20with%20Housing%20Laws.pdf">penalties</a> for not meeting those targets.

The state has also raised the <a href="https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-06/Consequences%20of%20Non-Compliance%20with%20Housing%20Laws.pdf">penalties</a> for not meeting those targets.

If San Francisco fails to allow the legally required housing, the state could cut funding for critical housing programs, freeze the city’s ability to issue permits and dole out financial penalties to the tune of up to $100,000 per month. The board’s recent action in rejecting a 495-unit apartment complex proposed for an empty lot on Stevenson Street is already <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/san-francisco-scrambles-to-prep-for-lawsuits-after-rejecting-800-new-housing-units/">under scrutiny by the state</a>.

If San Francisco fails to allow the legally required housing, the state could cut funding for critical housing programs, freeze the city’s ability to issue permits and dole out financial penalties to the tune of up to $100,000 per month. The board’s recent action in rejecting a 495-unit apartment complex proposed for an empty lot on Stevenson Street is already <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/san-francisco-scrambles-to-prep-for-lawsuits-after-rejecting-800-new-housing-units/">under scrutiny by the state</a>.

But even though the city has just a year to pass a long-term housing plan that will satisfy the state, the board appears to be moving in the other direction, as illustrated by the pairing of bills put forth earlier this year.&nbsp;

But even though the city has just a year to pass a long-term housing plan that will satisfy the state, the board appears to be moving in the other direction, as illustrated by the pairing of bills put forth earlier this year.&nbsp;

The first would create a “special use district” in Chinatown and the Tenderloin to prohibit some types of housing where common spaces and kitchens are shared among residents, proposed by Peskin. He says the two areas lack diverse housing options, and that the city’s west side should take on more of a responsibility for building dense housing.&nbsp;

The first would create a “special use district” in Chinatown and the Tenderloin to prohibit some types of housing where common spaces and kitchens are shared among residents, proposed by Peskin. He says the two areas lack diverse housing options, and that the city’s west side should take on more of a responsibility for building dense housing.&nbsp;

Peskin’s office declined multiple requests for comment for this story.&nbsp;

Peskin’s office declined multiple requests for comment for this story.&nbsp;

But under a <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200SB330">state law</a> passed in 2019, the bill could be considered a “downzone,” and under state law could be illegal if it’s not balanced by an equal and opposite “upzone.”&nbsp;

But under a <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200SB330">state law</a> passed in 2019, the bill could be considered a “downzone,” and under state law could be illegal if it’s not balanced by an equal and opposite “upzone.”&nbsp;

So to avoid any lawsuits, the city attorney’s office recommended Peskin pair it with a different piece of legislation also in the works.&nbsp;

So to avoid any lawsuits, the city attorney’s office recommended Peskin pair it with a different piece of legislation also in the works.&nbsp;

That’s Mandelman’s fourplex bill, which is coming back in front of the committee on Monday. It would allow up to four units on any lot currently zoned for single-family homes and up to six units on corner lots and is a way of creating <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/San-Francisco-may-embrace-fourplexes-while-16978947.php#:~:text=SB9%2C%20which%20took%20effect%20Jan,to%20get%20a%20building%20permit.">a specialized local version of</a> the new state law on limiting single-family zoning.&nbsp;&nbsp;

That’s Mandelman’s fourplex bill, which is coming back in front of the committee on Monday. It would allow up to four units on any lot currently zoned for single-family homes and up to six units on corner lots and is a way of creating <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/San-Francisco-may-embrace-fourplexes-while-16978947.php#:~:text=SB9%2C%20which%20took%20effect%20Jan,to%20get%20a%20building%20permit.">a specialized local version of</a> the new state law on limiting single-family zoning.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Most pro-housing groups, and even Breed, are lining up behind Mandelman’s fourplex proposal because it doesn’t have any affordability requirements, unlike the alternative fourplex bills proposed by Supervisors Gordon Mar and Ahsha Safaí. But even supporters are skeptical that much new housing will result.

Most pro-housing groups, and even Breed, are lining up behind Mandelman’s fourplex proposal because it doesn’t have any affordability requirements, unlike the alternative fourplex bills proposed by Supervisors Gordon Mar and Ahsha Safaí. But even supporters are skeptical that much new housing will result.

“I would like us to send out the most robust version of fourplex,” Mandelman said after the committee hearing in early March. “And I am a little concerned based on the conversation here that there is going to be tinkering. The question is, is there going to be watering down?”

“I would like us to send out the most robust version of fourplex,” Mandelman said after the committee hearing in early March. “And I am a little concerned based on the conversation here that there is going to be tinkering. The question is, is there going to be watering down?”

If the board’s recent history is a guide, the answer is likely to be yes.

If the board’s recent history is a guide, the answer is likely to be yes.

Disclosure: Michael Moritz, a venture capitalist who provided the financial backing to launch The Standard, donated $40,000 to YIMBY Action in 2020. Moritz is not involved in The Standard’s editorial decisions.

Disclosure: Michael Moritz, a venture capitalist who provided the financial backing to launch The Standard, donated $40,000 to YIMBY Action in 2020. Moritz is not involved in The Standard’s editorial decisions.

Housing shell game: Supes’ latest actions set to slow new housing as state mandates loom

Leo Cooperband

Josh Koehn

In the coming months, Mayor London Breed and other city officials are expected to announce the opening of Maceo May, a six-story, 105-unit <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/500-units-of-affordable-housing-san-francisco-delayed-silicon-valley-bank/">affordable housing development</a> specifically designed for formerly homeless veterans and families on Treasure Island.

In the coming months, Mayor London Breed and other city officials are expected to announce the opening of Maceo May, a six-story, 105-unit <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/500-units-of-affordable-housing-san-francisco-delayed-silicon-valley-bank/">affordable housing development</a> specifically designed for formerly homeless veterans and families on Treasure Island.

The project is one of many currently underway on the man-made island, which has essentially become a 400-acre construction zone. However, when it comes time for city officials to cut the ribbon on Maceo May, one notable group won’t be in attendance: the San Francisco Building and Construction Trades Council.&nbsp;

The project is one of many currently underway on the man-made island, which has essentially become a 400-acre construction zone. However, when it comes time for city officials to cut the ribbon on Maceo May, one notable group won’t be in attendance: the San Francisco Building and Construction Trades Council.&nbsp;

For years, the organization representing more than two dozen labor unions in San Francisco has been butting heads with Breed and other elected officials on how the city intends to meet its housing goals—and who should be doing that work. In the case of Maceo May, the Building Trades were essentially boxed out.

For years, the organization representing more than two dozen labor unions in San Francisco has been butting heads with Breed and other elected officials on how the city intends to meet its housing goals—and who should be doing that work. In the case of Maceo May, the Building Trades were essentially boxed out.

Mayor London Breed speaks at the Affordable Homes Now Rally in the Tenderloin neighborhood of San Francisco, Calif. on Thursday, June 16, 2022. | Eloïse Kelsey for The Standard

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/HousingRally_EloiseKelsey_SFS_0014-2500x1729.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-151617"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Members of the Carpenters Local Union 22 listen to Mayor London Breed speak at the Affordable Homes Now Rally in the Tenderloin on June 16, 2022. | Eloïse Kelsey for The Standard</figcaption></figure>

core/image

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/HousingRally_EloiseKelsey_SFS_0014-2500x1729.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-151617"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Members of the Carpenters Local Union 22 listen to Mayor London Breed speak at the Affordable Homes Now Rally in the Tenderloin on June 16, 2022. | Eloïse Kelsey for The Standard</figcaption></figure>

The project instead relied on a unionized group of carpenters working out of <a href="https://factoryos.com/">Factory_OS</a>, a modular construction plant on Mare Island in Vallejo. What the prefabricated homes may lack in flash, they make up for in efficiency. Supporters of the assembly-line style of production—which includes almost every aspect of a build-out, from the plumbing and electrical to the flooring—say it can radically reduce the cost and duration of construction.

The project instead relied on a unionized group of carpenters working out of <a href="https://factoryos.com/">Factory_OS</a>, a modular construction plant on Mare Island in Vallejo. What the prefabricated homes may lack in flash, they make up for in efficiency. Supporters of the assembly-line style of production—which includes almost every aspect of a build-out, from the plumbing and electrical to the flooring—say it can radically reduce the cost and duration of construction.

San Francisco has an ambitious <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/what-to-know-about-sfs-plan-to-create-82000-new-homes/">state mandate to build 82,000 units of housing by 2031</a>, and Breed and pro-housing advocates see modular construction as an important avenue in reaching that lofty goal. But a war being waged on two fronts—one between the Building Trades and a coalition of carpenters, and the other between the Building Trades and City Hall—is threatening to derail that progress, with disputes on multiple issues boiling over into strongly worded letters and multimillion-dollar fights at the ballot box.

San Francisco has an ambitious <a href="https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/what-to-know-about-sfs-plan-to-create-82000-new-homes/">state mandate to build 82,000 units of housing by 2031</a>, and Breed and pro-housing advocates see modular construction as an important avenue in reaching that lofty goal. But a war being waged on two fronts—one between the Building Trades and a coalition of carpenters, and the other between the Building Trades and City Hall—is threatening to derail that progress, with disputes on multiple issues boiling over into strongly worded letters and multimillion-dollar fights at the ballot box.

To understand why that matters and what comes next, it might help to recall an act of God that occurred a year and a half ago.

To understand why that matters and what comes next, it might help to recall an act of God that occurred a year and a half ago.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-monsoon-on-treasure-island">Monsoon on Treasure Island</h2>

<h2 id="h-monsoon-on-treasure-island">Monsoon on Treasure Island</h2>

In October 2021, a <a href="https://sfist.com/2021/10/24/strongest-storm-quarter-century-bomb-cylcone-northern-california-bay-area/">“bomb cyclone”</a> more powerful than any storm seen in the previous quarter-century drenched the Bay Area. An atmospheric river traversed across the Pacific Northwest, causing hundreds of millions of dollars of damage across the Left Coast.&nbsp;

In October 2021, a <a href="https://sfist.com/2021/10/24/strongest-storm-quarter-century-bomb-cylcone-northern-california-bay-area/">“bomb cyclone”</a> more powerful than any storm seen in the previous quarter-century drenched the Bay Area. An atmospheric river traversed across the Pacific Northwest, causing hundreds of millions of dollars of damage across the Left Coast.&nbsp;

Maceo May wasn’t spared. The storm’s heavy downpour and high-speed winds ravaged the development for one key reason: Maceo May didn’t come with a roof.&nbsp;

Maceo May wasn’t spared. The storm’s heavy downpour and high-speed winds ravaged the development for one key reason: Maceo May didn’t come with a roof.&nbsp;

The prefab project—built by members of the Northern California Carpenters Union at Factory_OS—was delivered topless to <a href="https://sfstandard.com/transportation/treasure-island-ferry-first-day-san-francisco/">Treasure Island</a>, with plans to complete roofing at a later stage in construction. Despite “round-the-clock staffing” to protect the project, city officials said the damage was substantial.&nbsp;

The prefab project—built by members of the Northern California Carpenters Union at Factory_OS—was delivered topless to <a href="https://sfstandard.com/transportation/treasure-island-ferry-first-day-san-francisco/">Treasure Island</a>, with plans to complete roofing at a later stage in construction. Despite “round-the-clock staffing” to protect the project, city officials said the damage was substantial.&nbsp;

“The project&#8217;s location on Treasure Island, in the middle of the Bay and subject to particularly high winds, led to extraordinary damages at this location,” Anne Stanley, a spokesperson for the Mayor’s Office of Housing and Community Development, said in an email. “Given that modular units are installed before the building’s finish materials or roof are built/installed, units are delivered covered in protective wrappings, but at least some of those wrappings had already been removed for installation.”

“The project's location on Treasure Island, in the middle of the Bay and subject to particularly high winds, led to extraordinary damages at this location,” Anne Stanley, a spokesperson for the Mayor’s Office of Housing and Community Development, said in an email. “Given that modular units are installed before the building’s finish materials or roof are built/installed, units are delivered covered in protective wrappings, but at least some of those wrappings had already been removed for installation.”

“The project&#8217;s location on Treasure Island, in the middle of the Bay and subject to particularly high winds, led to extraordinary damages at this location,” Anne Stanley, a spokesperson for the Mayor’s Office of Housing and Community Development, said in an email. “Given that modular units are installed before the building’s finish materials or roof are built/installed, units are delivered covered in protective wrappings, but at least some of those wrappings had already been removed for installation.”

core/video

<figure class="wp-block-video"><video autoplay loop muted poster="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/SFS_PROJECT_VERSION.00_03_34_23.Still001.jpg" src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/MaceoMay04192023_INLINE.mp4" playsinline></video><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The Maceo May modular housing development is seen on Treasure Island on April 18, 2023. | Paul Kuroda for The Standard</figcaption></figure>

The storm harmed nearly every aspect of Maceo May’s build-out, and the estimated cost to repair and complete the project ballooned by nearly $35 million, raising the total price tag to $110 million and delaying completion by more than six months.&nbsp;

The storm harmed nearly every aspect of Maceo May’s build-out, and the estimated cost to repair and complete the project ballooned by nearly $35 million, raising the total price tag to $110 million and delaying completion by more than six months.&nbsp;

The devastation was shocking, said Malcolm Yeung, the executive director of the Chinatown Community Development Center, which partnered with the nonprofit Swords to Plowshares to build Maceo May.

The devastation was shocking, said Malcolm Yeung, the executive director of the Chinatown Community Development Center, which partnered with the nonprofit Swords to Plowshares to build Maceo May.

“Did I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach when I heard the news? Yeah,” Yeung said. “Did my eyes pop out of my head? Yeah. I had to find them and put them back in my skull.”

“Did I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach when I heard the news? Yeah,” Yeung said. “Did my eyes pop out of my head? Yeah. I had to find them and put them back in my skull.”

San Francisco issued new loans to keep the project moving forward, but the extent of the damage and increase in costs have gone unreported until now. City officials expect all of Maceo May’s units to be leased by June.

San Francisco issued new loans to keep the project moving forward, but the extent of the damage and increase in costs have gone unreported until now. City officials expect all of Maceo May’s units to be leased by June.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-who-s-got-skill">Who’s Got Skill?</h2>

<h2 id="h-who-s-got-skill">Who’s Got Skill?</h2>

According to leaders of the local Building Trades, the mistakes made at Maceo May are just one example of a larger trend in which local construction jobs are being shipped out of San Francisco to less-skilled workers, resulting in mistakes and additional costs that aren’t accounted for in bids.&nbsp;

According to leaders of the local Building Trades, the mistakes made at Maceo May are just one example of a larger trend in which local construction jobs are being shipped out of San Francisco to less-skilled workers, resulting in mistakes and additional costs that aren’t accounted for in bids.&nbsp;

John Dryden, a carpenter and framer, works on corridor walls at the Factory_OS facility in Vallejo, Calif., on Friday, July 26, 2019. The company builds modular housing in the Bay Area. | Yalonda M. James/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/INLINED4_MaceoMay04072023-2500x1667.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-151173"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">John Dryden, a carpenter and framer, works on corridor walls at the Factory_OS facility in Vallejo on July 26, 2019. | Yalonda M. James/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>

Larry Mazzola, president of the Building Trades, has sent multiple letters to the mayor and supervisors calling out Factory_OS, accusing the city of using “smoke and mirrors” to avoid hiring properly skilled and trained San Franciscans and paying prevailing wages.

Larry Mazzola, president of the Building Trades, has sent multiple letters to the mayor and supervisors calling out Factory_OS, accusing the city of using “smoke and mirrors” to avoid hiring properly skilled and trained San Franciscans and paying prevailing wages.

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Supervisors preview: It takes a Potemkin Village

Housing shell game: Supes’ latest actions set to slow new housing as state mandates loom

Bomb cyclone adds $35M to housing project, exposes labor rifts

Two state bills could help chip away at San Francisco’s housing shortage—gradually

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