With just three weeks to go to the election, many San Franciscans are still scratching their heads over the seemingly convoluted system of ranked-choice voting for mayor. I don’t blame them — and I’m on the board of a nonprofit organization called Rank the Vote, which seeks to promote the use of ranked-choice voting nationally.
The truth is, the process can be confusing — just as a horserace between 13 thoroughbreds can be confusing. But voters can navigate this particular race by keeping some basic concepts in mind.
First, San Franciscans are being asked to rank a field of 13 mayoral candidates and are allowed up to 10 choices. Do you need to rank that many? No, you absolutely do not. But you likely do need to rank more than your favorite candidate if you want your ballot to truly count.
Here’s why. Ranked-choice voting works as a powerful system that narrows a crowded field of candidates through a series of computer-assisted instant runoffs. In the likely event that there is no majority winner after the first runoff, the least successful candidate is eliminated, and that person’s votes are reallocated based on the voters’ next choices.
If you don’t add a second choice, your vote has nowhere to go after your preferred candidate is eliminated in a run-off. In this year’s particularly competitive mayoral race, 11 candidates will likely be eliminated in order to arrive at two finalists and a majority result. For your vote to be counted in that final round, you need to have one of those final two candidates somewhere in your ranking.
By most accounts, London Breed, Daniel Lurie, and Mark Farrell (not necessarily in that order) are polling strongest, followed by Aaron Peskin and Ahsha Safaí. There are eight other candidates whom the polling doesn’t even track.
Here’s my suggestion: Rank as many candidates as you can of these top five. It’s important to know that your lower rankings cannot hurt your top one; you stay with your top choice provided that person is not eliminated. But if your candidate does get sent home, your vote switches to your next choice. You’re still in the race.
Here are some strategies for San Francisco voters of differing political stripes:
- You want anyone but Breed. Rank Lurie, Farrell, and Peskin in your preferred order, and you’re done. (This strategy also works for “Anyone but Peskin,” etc.)
- You favor reelecting Breed. Rank her first, and you’re probably OK stopping there. Based on polling, it’s extremely unlikely that she’ll be eliminated before the final round. But (never say never) you could rank two additional candidates (Lurie, Farrell, and/or Peskin) to be 100% sure. This will not hurt your first-choice vote for Breed.
- You lean conservative or moderate and don’t like Breed. Rank Lurie and Farrell as your top picks, in your preferred order. You’re done. According to polling, one of these two will go the distance, and the votes from the one who’s eliminated will benefit the other. (They are splitting the conservative non-Breed votes.)
- You are a staunch progressive. Maybe you rank Safaí and Peskin on top, in your preferred order. But you need a backup plan. Based on polling, both these candidates will likely be eliminated. For your third and fourth choices, rank two of the three leaders (Lurie, Farrell, and/or Breed) in your order of preference.
- You favor one or more of the eight lesser-known candidates. This may be a friend or relative, or maybe you like their views (or you’re just a proud contrarian). By all means, rank them first! But since your candidate will 100% be sent back to the barn, you absolutely need backups if you want to wager on a winner. Follow the above rules for your remaining rankings.
- The 13 choices aren’t enough, so you’re writing one in. First, book some time with your therapist. Then refer to Rule 5. You can introduce a new name to the process and have your vote counted.
Generally speaking, if you rank three of the four poll leaders (Farrell, Lurie, Peskin, and Breed) somewhere in your choices, you are going to have a vote that makes it to the final round. This rule also applies in the supervisor races: Ranking three of the four leaders (and others, if you like) will get your vote to the final runoff.
By most estimates, the leader in the first-round mayoral tally — most likely Farrell, Lurie, or Breed — will receive less than 30% of the vote. In other words, more than 70% of voters will have chosen someone else. As such, we should be thankful our system doesn’t crown the winner at that point.
I’ve been around long enough to remember the old system, in which the top two mayoral vote-getters in November would advance to a December runoff. Weary San Franciscans were expected to go to the polls again, and the city bore the exorbitant expense of another election.
Now we get it done with one powerful ballot. Use your power wisely.
John Palmer is a 34-year San Francisco resident and board chair of Rank the Vote, a nonprofit with a mission to promote the use of ranked-choice voting nationally.