California regulators say a San Francisco robotaxi service owned by General Motors covered up an accident involving one of its driverless cars, raising the specter they may add a fine to the recent&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/driverless-cars-cruise-california-robotaxis-8aa872f6b87bbff59e9c86471e87b0e7">the suspension of its California license</a>.

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California regulators say a San Francisco robotaxi service owned by General Motors covered up an accident involving one of its driverless cars, raising the specter they may add a fine to the recent&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/driverless-cars-cruise-california-robotaxis-8aa872f6b87bbff59e9c86471e87b0e7">the suspension of its California license</a>.

The potential penalty facing GM&#8217;s Cruise service could be around $1.5 million, based on documents filed late last week by the California Public Utilities Commission.

The potential penalty facing GM's Cruise service could be around $1.5 million, based on documents filed late last week by the California Public Utilities Commission.

The potential penalty facing GM&#8217;s Cruise service could be around $1.5 million, based on documents filed late last week by the California Public Utilities Commission.

The notice orders Cruise to appear at a Feb. 6 evidentiary hearing to determine whether the robotaxi service misled regulators about what happened after one of its driverless cars ran into a pedestrian who had already been struck by another vehicle driven by a human on the evening of Oct. 2 in San Francisco.

The notice orders Cruise to appear at a Feb. 6 evidentiary hearing to determine whether the robotaxi service misled regulators about what happened after one of its driverless cars ran into a pedestrian who had already been struck by another vehicle driven by a human on the evening of Oct. 2 in San Francisco.

READ MORE: <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/12/01/cruise-future-gm-pullback/">GM Is Pulling Away From Cruise. What Happens to the Robotaxi Company Now?</a>

GM is pulling away from Cruise. What happens to the robotaxi company now?

READ MORE: <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/12/01/cruise-future-gm-pullback/">GM Is Pulling Away From Cruise. What Happens to the Robotaxi Company Now?</a>

The February hearing comes just six months after <a href="https://apnews.com/article/robotaxis-cruise-waymo-san-francisco-artificial-intelligence-98f0dab03984bd71685b92c2ac7aad0c">the state Public Utilities Commission authorized Cruise&#8217;s robotaxi service</a> to begin charging passengers for around-the-clock rides throughout San Francisco despite strident objections from city officials who warned the driverless cars malfunctioned.

The February hearing comes just six months after <a href="https://apnews.com/article/robotaxis-cruise-waymo-san-francisco-artificial-intelligence-98f0dab03984bd71685b92c2ac7aad0c">the state Public Utilities Commission authorized Cruise's robotaxi service</a> to begin charging passengers for around-the-clock rides throughout San Francisco despite strident objections from city officials who warned the driverless cars malfunctioned.

The February hearing comes just six months after <a href="https://apnews.com/article/robotaxis-cruise-waymo-san-francisco-artificial-intelligence-98f0dab03984bd71685b92c2ac7aad0c">the state Public Utilities Commission authorized Cruise&#8217;s robotaxi service</a> to begin charging passengers for around-the-clock rides throughout San Francisco despite strident objections from city officials who warned the driverless cars malfunctioned.

Three weeks after Cruise&#8217;s Oct. 2 accident, the California Department of Motor Vehicles effectively shut down robotaxi service by suspending its license to operate in the state.

Three weeks after Cruise's Oct. 2 accident, the California Department of Motor Vehicles effectively shut down robotaxi service by suspending its license to operate in the state.

Three weeks after Cruise&#8217;s Oct. 2 accident, the California Department of Motor Vehicles effectively shut down robotaxi service by suspending its license to operate in the state.

The suspension was a major blow for Cruise and its corporate parent GM, which absorbed huge losses during the development of the driverless service that was supposed to generate $1 billion in revenue by 2025 as it expanded beyond San Francisco.

The suspension was a major blow for Cruise and its corporate parent GM, which absorbed huge losses during the development of the driverless service that was supposed to generate $1 billion in revenue by 2025 as it expanded beyond San Francisco.

After losing nearly $6 billion since the end of 2019, Cruise has shifted into reverse as it scrambles to control the fallout from the Oct. 2 accident that critically injured the run-over pedestrian and led to the recent resignation of CEO and co-founder Kyle Vogt.

After losing nearly $6 billion since the end of 2019, Cruise has shifted into reverse as it scrambles to control the fallout from the Oct. 2 accident that critically injured the run-over pedestrian and led to the recent resignation of CEO and co-founder Kyle Vogt.

“Cruise is committed to rebuilding trust with our regulators and will respond in a timely manner&#8221; to the Public Utilities Commission, the company said in a Monday statement. The San Francisco-based company has already hired an outside law firm to scrutinize its response to the Oct. 2 accident.

“Cruise is committed to rebuilding trust with our regulators and will respond in a timely manner" to the Public Utilities Commission, the company said in a Monday statement. The San Francisco-based company has already hired an outside law firm to scrutinize its response to the Oct. 2 accident.

“Cruise is committed to rebuilding trust with our regulators and will respond in a timely manner&#8221; to the Public Utilities Commission, the company said in a Monday statement. The San Francisco-based company has already hired an outside law firm to scrutinize its response to the Oct. 2 accident.

The most serious questions about the incident concern Cruise&#8217;s handling of a video showing a robotaxi named “Panini” dragging the pedestrian 20 feet before coming to a stop.

The most serious questions about the incident concern Cruise's handling of a video showing a robotaxi named “Panini” dragging the pedestrian 20 feet before coming to a stop.

The most serious questions about the incident concern Cruise&#8217;s handling of a video showing a robotaxi named “Panini” dragging the pedestrian 20 feet before coming to a stop.

In a Dec. 1 filing recounting how Cruise handled disclosures about the accident, the Public Utilities Commission asserted the company tried to conceal how its robotaxi reacted to the accident for more than two weeks.

In a Dec. 1 filing recounting how Cruise handled disclosures about the accident, the Public Utilities Commission asserted the company tried to conceal how its robotaxi reacted to the accident for more than two weeks.

Cruise didn&#8217;t provide the video footage until Oct. 19, according to the regulatory filing. The cover-up spanned 15 days, according to the PUC, exposing Cruise and GM to potential fines of $100,000 per day, or $1.5 million.

Cruise didn't provide the video footage until Oct. 19, according to the regulatory filing. The cover-up spanned 15 days, according to the PUC, exposing Cruise and GM to potential fines of $100,000 per day, or $1.5 million.

Cruise didn&#8217;t provide the video footage until Oct. 19, according to the regulatory filing. The cover-up spanned 15 days, according to the PUC, exposing Cruise and GM to potential fines of $100,000 per day, or $1.5 million.

Cruise faces $1.5M fine in alleged cover-up of San Francisco robotaxi collision

Joshua Bote

For much of Mary Barra’s term as chief executive officer of General Motors, she’s branded the stalwart automaker—in earnings calls, marketing and public appearances—as a player in the technology space.

For much of Mary Barra’s term as chief executive officer of General Motors, she’s branded the stalwart automaker—in earnings calls, marketing and public appearances—as a player in the technology space.

Core to GM’s transition was spending a pretty penny to snag Cruise in March 2016, which, at that point, was just a fledgling startup fresh out of the Y Combinator incubator.&nbsp;

Core to GM’s transition was spending a pretty penny to snag Cruise in March 2016, which, at that point, was just a fledgling startup fresh out of the Y Combinator incubator.&nbsp;

Seven years and a few billion dollars later, GM is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/11/29/cruise-to-substantially-lower-spending-following-san-francisco-crash-gm-tells-shareholders/">now making a U-turn</a> away from its large-scale investments in Cruise, begging the question of where exactly the company goes from here.

Cruise to &#8216;substantially lower spending&#8217; following San Francisco crash, GM tells shareholders

Seven years and a few billion dollars later, GM is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/11/29/cruise-to-substantially-lower-spending-following-san-francisco-crash-gm-tells-shareholders/">now making a U-turn</a> away from its large-scale investments in Cruise, begging the question of where exactly the company goes from here.

GM announced it would curtail spending on Cruise in the neighborhood of “hundreds of millions of dollars,” a drop-off that comes as little surprise to observers of the troubled driverless car startup. A string of snafus across San Francisco culminated in a frightening collision that led to a woman being severely injured—she is currently in stable condition—and federal and local probes into Cruise, which pulled its entire fleet from the road.

GM announced it would curtail spending on Cruise in the neighborhood of “hundreds of millions of dollars,” a drop-off that comes as little surprise to observers of the troubled driverless car startup. A string of snafus across San Francisco culminated in a frightening collision that led to a woman being severely injured—she is currently in stable condition—and federal and local probes into Cruise, which pulled its entire fleet from the road.

FILE - Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra speaks during the opening of contract talks with the United Auto Workers on July 16, 2019, in Detroit. Barra was the second highest paid woman CEO in a survey done by AP and Equilar. She received a base salary of $2.1 million, a $6.3 million performance-based bonus, $1.1 million in perks and $19.5 million in stock and option awards, for a total pay package of $29 million. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/AP23150532146502-scaled.jpg?w=2500" alt="A woman in a green jacket at a podium in front of a general motors sign." class="wp-image-168700"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">General Motors Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra speaks during the opening of contract talks with the United Auto Workers in Detroit. </figcaption></figure>

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/AP23150532146502-scaled.jpg?w=2500" alt="A woman in a green jacket at a podium in front of a general motors sign." class="wp-image-168700"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">General Motors Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra speaks during the opening of contract talks with the United Auto Workers in Detroit. </figcaption></figure>

“When something like this happens, it just kind of puts further doubt in the consumer mind around the longevity, the safety, the adoption,” said Nathan Shipley, an auto industry analyst and executive director at market research firm Circana. “From a business standpoint, you have to pull back and examine things.”

“When something like this happens, it just kind of puts further doubt in the consumer mind around the longevity, the safety, the adoption,” said Nathan Shipley, an auto industry analyst and executive director at market research firm Circana. “From a business standpoint, you have to pull back and examine things.”

This week’s announcement serves not just as a blow to Cruise’s declining fortunes, but also as a major setback to General Motors, which, until recently, bet big on Cruise as a key part of the company’s future. 

This week’s announcement serves not just as a blow to Cruise’s declining fortunes, but also as a major setback to General Motors, which, until recently, bet big on Cruise as a key part of the company’s future.

“Once we have taken steps to improve our safety culture and rebuild trust, our strategy is to relaunch in one city and prove our performance there before expanding,” a Cruise spokesperson told The Standard.

“Once we have taken steps to improve our safety culture and rebuild trust, our strategy is to relaunch in one city and prove our performance there before expanding,” a Cruise spokesperson told The Standard.

Auto industry analysts and technology experts who spoke to The Standard say the companies will likely have to go back to basics and rethink previously optimistic projections.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Auto industry analysts and technology experts who spoke to The Standard say the companies will likely have to go back to basics and rethink previously optimistic projections.&nbsp;&nbsp;

For Cruise, that means a leaner team with a greater focus on sustainable scaling and safety; for GM, that means focusing efforts away from a self-driving, electricity-fueled future to deal with the gas-powered, human-controlled present.

For Cruise, that means a leaner team with a greater focus on sustainable scaling and safety; for GM, that means focusing efforts away from a self-driving, electricity-fueled future to deal with the gas-powered, human-controlled present.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-they-just-had-to-go-full-throttle">‘They Just Had To Go Full Throttle’</h2>

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<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-they-just-had-to-go-full-throttle">‘They Just Had To Go Full Throttle’</h2>

While other carmakers not named Tesla have largely held off on introducing self-driving technology, acknowledging the risks of introducing largely unvetted technology to the masses, Barra and then-Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt made their ambitions clear for Cruise over the past few years.

While other carmakers not named Tesla have largely held off on introducing self-driving technology, acknowledging the risks of introducing largely unvetted technology to the masses, Barra and then-Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt made their ambitions clear for Cruise over the past few years.

“For the past five years I’ve covered GM, they’ve always been the technology-forward car maker,” said Gadjo Sevilla, a senior analyst for the connectivity and technology industries at Insider Intelligence. “They would have a bigger presence at a technology show than they would at a car show because that&#8217;s really their brand.”

“For the past five years I’ve covered GM, they’ve always been the technology-forward car maker,” said Gadjo Sevilla, a senior analyst for the connectivity and technology industries at Insider Intelligence. “They would have a bigger presence at a technology show than they would at a car show because that's really their brand.”

“For the past five years I’ve covered GM, they’ve always been the technology-forward car maker,” said Gadjo Sevilla, a senior analyst for the connectivity and technology industries at Insider Intelligence. “They would have a bigger presence at a technology show than they would at a car show because that&#8217;s really their brand.”

Barra told a South by Southwest crowd last year that she anticipated consumers would be able to purchase their very own autonomous GM-branded vehicle powered by the technology deployed on Cruise vehicles by 2025. Vogt, speaking at TechCrunch Disrupt in September, called the rise of personal self-driving cars “inevitable.”&nbsp;&nbsp;

Barra told a South by Southwest crowd last year that she anticipated consumers would be able to purchase their very own autonomous GM-branded vehicle powered by the technology deployed on Cruise vehicles by 2025. Vogt, speaking at TechCrunch Disrupt in September, called the rise of personal self-driving cars “inevitable.”&nbsp;&nbsp;

Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt speaks onstage during TechCrunch Disrupt 2023 at Moscone Center on September 20, 2023 in San Francisco, California.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/The-Robotaxi-Revolution-Photo-1.jpg?w=2500" alt="A man in a blue jacket speaks onstage at a conference. " class="wp-image-202923"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt speaks onstage during TechCrunch Disrupt 2023 at San Francisco&#8217;s Moscone Center in September.</figcaption></figure>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/The-Robotaxi-Revolution-Photo-1.jpg?w=2500" alt="A man in a blue jacket speaks onstage at a conference. " class="wp-image-202923"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt speaks onstage during TechCrunch Disrupt 2023 at San Francisco's Moscone Center in September.</figcaption></figure>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/The-Robotaxi-Revolution-Photo-1.jpg?w=2500" alt="A man in a blue jacket speaks onstage at a conference. " class="wp-image-202923"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt speaks onstage during TechCrunch Disrupt 2023 at San Francisco&#8217;s Moscone Center in September.</figcaption></figure>

Earlier this year, Vogt also said Cruise was on track to make $1 billion in revenue by 2025. He stepped down from the company this month.&nbsp;

Earlier this year, Vogt also said Cruise was on track to make $1 billion in revenue by 2025. He stepped down from the company this month.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.carscoops.com/2023/06/gms-mary-barra-says-cruise-could-generate-50-billion-in-revenue-each-year/">Barra said Cruise</a> would be a key money generator for GM, making up to $50 billion in annual revenue by 2030—even though the company was burning through $2 billion a year at the time. (Barra also suggested that GM’s revenue would double to $280 billion in that timeframe.)

Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.carscoops.com/2023/06/gms-mary-barra-says-cruise-could-generate-50-billion-in-revenue-each-year/">Barra said Cruise</a> would be a key money generator for GM, making up to $50 billion in annual revenue by 2030—even though the company was burning through $2 billion a year at the time. (Barra also suggested that GM’s revenue would double to $280 billion in that timeframe.)

Those claims were not entirely unfounded, said Billy Riggs, a University of San Francisco professor and director of the school’s <a href="https://www.usfca.edu/management/engagement-impact/autonomous-vehicles-city-initiative">Autonomous Vehicles and the City Initiative</a>.&nbsp;

Those claims were not entirely unfounded, said Billy Riggs, a University of San Francisco professor and director of the school’s <a href="https://www.usfca.edu/management/engagement-impact/autonomous-vehicles-city-initiative">Autonomous Vehicles and the City Initiative</a>.&nbsp;

He explained that the projections likely were based on Cruise moving full-speed ahead on expanding its autonomous vehicle service and rolling out its higher-capacity Cruise Origin driverless van. GM has since paused production on the autonomous van. 

He explained that the projections likely were based on Cruise moving full-speed ahead on expanding its autonomous vehicle service and rolling out its higher-capacity Cruise Origin driverless van. GM has since paused production on the autonomous van.

“Unlike Waymo,” Riggs said, “they had a really aggressive scaling strategy.”

“Unlike Waymo,” Riggs said, “they had a really aggressive scaling strategy.”

Integral to Cruise’s rapid growth was spending a ton of cash to expand into new markets and push forward Origin’s development, he added.

Integral to Cruise’s rapid growth was spending a ton of cash to expand into new markets and push forward Origin’s development, he added.

“Cruise felt they just had to go full throttle—no pun intended,” said Sevilla, who noted the company has burned through $8.2 billion since 2017. “And with that comes the danger of not really being able to anticipate real-world situations.”

“Cruise felt they just had to go full throttle—no pun intended,” said Sevilla, who noted the company has burned through $8.2 billion since 2017. “And with that comes the danger of not really being able to anticipate real-world situations.”

In a stockholder letter released in July, shortly before Cruise secured state regulatory approval to expand in San Francisco, Barra pointed to Cruise as one of its “highest-impact growth initiatives.”&nbsp;

In a stockholder letter released in July, shortly before Cruise secured state regulatory approval to expand in San Francisco, Barra pointed to Cruise as one of its “highest-impact growth initiatives.”&nbsp;

In an apparent effort to maintain its first-mover status, Cruise, according to reports and former employees’ accounts, accelerated too quickly and eschewed safety in the process. Bloomberg reported last week that Vogt allegedly softened safety review metrics in order to expand nationwide more quickly.

In an apparent effort to maintain its first-mover status, Cruise, according to reports and former employees’ accounts, accelerated too quickly and eschewed safety in the process. Bloomberg reported last week that Vogt allegedly softened safety review metrics in order to expand nationwide more quickly.

Barra said Cruise is undergoing an independent review alongside its plans to relaunch in one unspecified city. That doesn’t answer the question of whether Cruise can regain the public’s trust. Even if California regulators reinstate Cruise’s permit to operate, Sevilla and Shipley say the stain of the past few months will still linger.&nbsp;

Barra said Cruise is undergoing an independent review alongside its plans to relaunch in one unspecified city. That doesn’t answer the question of whether Cruise can regain the public’s trust. Even if California regulators reinstate Cruise’s permit to operate, Sevilla and Shipley say the stain of the past few months will still linger.&nbsp;

“You know, ‘Self-driving car runs over and drags pedestrian’—that’s such a shocking headline,” Shipley said. “That&#8217;s all a consumer has to read. It puts doubt in their mind.”

“You know, ‘Self-driving car runs over and drags pedestrian’—that’s such a shocking headline,” Shipley said. “That's all a consumer has to read. It puts doubt in their mind.”

“You know, ‘Self-driving car runs over and drags pedestrian’—that’s such a shocking headline,” Shipley said. “That&#8217;s all a consumer has to read. It puts doubt in their mind.”

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-rebuilding-public-trust">Rebuilding Public Trust</h2>

It will be crucial, Shipley said, for Cruise to rebuild public trust and focus on the measures it’s taken to ensure a safe experience for drivers and pedestrians alike. That stands in stark relief to Cruise’s pre-approval strategy, where it publicly condemned human drivers’ recklessness.

It will be crucial, Shipley said, for Cruise to rebuild public trust and focus on the measures it’s taken to ensure a safe experience for drivers and pedestrians alike. That stands in stark relief to Cruise’s pre-approval strategy, where it publicly condemned human drivers’ recklessness.

Part of Cruise’s future strategy, Riggs says, could include partnering with other companies on operations—letting Cruise focus on developing the hardware and software.

Part of Cruise’s future strategy, Riggs says, could include partnering with other companies on operations—letting Cruise focus on developing the hardware and software.

Waymo, for example, recently partnered with Uber to sell its services on the Uber app in Arizona. Waymo is owned by Google&#8217;s parent company, Alphabet.

Waymo, for example, recently partnered with Uber to sell its services on the Uber app in Arizona. Waymo is owned by Google's parent company, Alphabet.

Waymo, for example, recently partnered with Uber to sell its services on the Uber app in Arizona. Waymo is owned by Google&#8217;s parent company, Alphabet.

A Waymo autonomous vehicle sits idle in front of a metal barricade at the corner of 3rd and Howard Street near Moscone Center in San Francisco on Friday, November 10, 2023. To prepare for safety and security for the APEC Summit, the City will block off a large “security zone” to both automobile and pedestrian traffic around Moscone Center which might confuse autonomous vehicles and robotaxis such as Cruise and Waymo.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/waymo-apec03.jpg?w=2500" alt="A white Waymo autonomous is idling behind 3 metal barricade on a city street corner as other card pass by." class="wp-image-220183"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A Waymo autonomous vehicle sits idle in front of a metal barricade at the corner of Third and Howard streets near Moscone Center in San Francisco on Nov. 10.</figcaption></figure>

But all of the experts agree that it’s not over for Cruise—or for the self-driving car industry—just yet.&nbsp;

But all of the experts agree that it’s not over for Cruise—or for the self-driving car industry—just yet.&nbsp;

“They’re in a good position,” Riggs said. “They have cash, they have proven technology and they have assets that can be ready to scale.”

“They’re in a good position,” Riggs said. “They have cash, they have proven technology and they have assets that can be ready to scale.”

For now, General Motors’ approach appears to be pulling away from its tech future. “The profitability and cash generation in its traditional, non-electric, non-self-driving vehicles is still strong,” a letter to GM shareholders on Wednesday stated.

For now, General Motors’ approach appears to be pulling away from its tech future. “The profitability and cash generation in its traditional, non-electric, non-self-driving vehicles is still strong,” a letter to GM shareholders on Wednesday stated.

Cruise, as a result, has moved into the background.&nbsp;

Cruise, as a result, has moved into the background.&nbsp;

“Right now, they’re licking their wounds, which is going to go back to the areas that they know they can control,” Sevilla said.

“Right now, they’re licking their wounds, which is going to go back to the areas that they know they can control,” Sevilla said.

GM’s self-driving cars are likely going to be put off for a while. Despite Barra’s promises that they would come by 2025, Riggs says it won’t be a “financially prudent nor realistic pathway” for the company’s autonomous vehicle future.

GM’s self-driving cars are likely going to be put off for a while. Despite Barra’s promises that they would come by 2025, Riggs says it won’t be a “financially prudent nor realistic pathway” for the company’s autonomous vehicle future.

The current reality and Cruise&#8217;s future prospects are a far cry from how Barra likely felt as the company was gaining prominence. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2j2eLEHE-Dc">A promotional video</a>, released in early 2022, featured Barra riding a Cruise car named Tostada in San Francisco with Vogt, who had just been appointed interim CEO.

The current reality and Cruise's future prospects are a far cry from how Barra likely felt as the company was gaining prominence. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2j2eLEHE-Dc">A promotional video</a>, released in early 2022, featured Barra riding a Cruise car named Tostada in San Francisco with Vogt, who had just been appointed interim CEO.

The current reality and Cruise&#8217;s future prospects are a far cry from how Barra likely felt as the company was gaining prominence. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2j2eLEHE-Dc">A promotional video</a>, released in early 2022, featured Barra riding a Cruise car named Tostada in San Francisco with Vogt, who had just been appointed interim CEO.

“I really think that the apprehension that some people think they have is going to dissipate extremely quickly when they get the experience,” she said, later adding, “I feel like we’re making history.”

“I really think that the apprehension that some people think they have is going to dissipate extremely quickly when they get the experience,” she said, later adding, “I feel like we’re making history.”

The robotaxi revolution had its Icarus moment in 2023.

The robotaxi revolution had its Icarus moment in 2023.

In August, California regulators gave the go-ahead to allow General Motors’ Cruise and Alphabet’s Waymo to send their driverless vehicles onto the roads of San Francisco 24/7, collecting fares for rides. Proponents heralded the moment as a breakthrough that took years of research and hundreds of millions of dollars.

In August, California regulators gave the go-ahead to allow General Motors’ Cruise and Alphabet’s Waymo to send their driverless vehicles onto the roads of San Francisco 24/7, collecting fares for rides. Proponents heralded the moment as a breakthrough that took years of research and hundreds of millions of dollars.

Even if some of the robotaxis <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/08/18/cruise-concrete-and-crashes-a-rough-week-for-san-francisco-robotaxis-after-expansion-vote/">haplessly drove into wet concrete or </a>were <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/07/we-spoke-to-one-of-the-activists-coning-cruise-and-waymo-robotaxis-in-san-francisco/">disabled by activists lobbing traffic cones, </a>evangelists felt vindicated in their belief that a future with no human-operated cars was nigh.

San francisco robotaxi expansion: Cruise crash injures 1 and other mishaps

We spoke to one of the activists &#8216;coning&#8217; Cruise and Waymo robotaxis in San Francisco

Even if some of the robotaxis <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/08/18/cruise-concrete-and-crashes-a-rough-week-for-san-francisco-robotaxis-after-expansion-vote/">haplessly drove into wet concrete or </a>were <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/07/we-spoke-to-one-of-the-activists-coning-cruise-and-waymo-robotaxis-in-san-francisco/">disabled by activists lobbing traffic cones, </a>evangelists felt vindicated in their belief that a future with no human-operated cars was nigh.

“It was clear they were juggernauts, and there wasn&#8217;t much that anyone could say or do that was going to change that,” Phil Koopman, an engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University specializing in autonomous vehicle safety, told The Standard. “The question was: Would they scale slow enough to keep certain things under control, or would they be too aggressive?”

“It was clear they were juggernauts, and there wasn't much that anyone could say or do that was going to change that,” Phil Koopman, an engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University specializing in autonomous vehicle safety, told The Standard. “The question was: Would they scale slow enough to keep certain things under control, or would they be too aggressive?”

“It was clear they were juggernauts, and there wasn&#8217;t much that anyone could say or do that was going to change that,” Phil Koopman, an engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University specializing in autonomous vehicle safety, told The Standard. “The question was: Would they scale slow enough to keep certain things under control, or would they be too aggressive?”

People look at a Cruise car stuck on 30th Avenue after Day 1 of Outside Lands on Friday. 

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Nightlife_OutsideLandsDay1_08102023_29.jpg?w=2500" alt="A crowd of about a hundred people stand in front of a stuck Cruise car" class="wp-image-190985"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">People look at a Cruise car stuck on 30th Avenue after Day 1 of Outside Lands, just a day after regulators gave Cruise the go-ahead to operate 24/7 in the city.</figcaption></figure>

But less than two months later, Cruise suffered a system breakdown. Two days into October, <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/10/02/cruise-robotaxi-crash-woman-injured-san-francisco/">a woman was dragged about 20 feet by a Cruise vehicle</a> after she was struck by a human-operated vehicle. The California Department of Motor Vehicles said that the company <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/10/24/cruise-robotaxi-dmv-suspension-video/">withheld video footage</a> of the incident, prompting the agency to suspend Cruise’s permit. Shortly after, Cruise—which had also been <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/28/cruise-is-bringing-its-robotaxis-to-seattle-and-washington-dc/">operating</a> in Austin and Phoenix and had plans to expand to Nashville, Miami and other large cities—pulled its entire fleet nationwide. Cruise is currently in the crosshairs of federal, state and local officials.

Woman hit by driver, run over by Cruise robotaxi in downtown San Francisco

Cruise hid video of woman being dragged along San Francisco street, DMV says

But less than two months later, Cruise suffered a system breakdown. Two days into October, <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/10/02/cruise-robotaxi-crash-woman-injured-san-francisco/">a woman was dragged about 20 feet by a Cruise vehicle</a> after she was struck by a human-operated vehicle. The California Department of Motor Vehicles said that the company <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/10/24/cruise-robotaxi-dmv-suspension-video/">withheld video footage</a> of the incident, prompting the agency to suspend Cruise’s permit. Shortly after, Cruise—which had also been <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/28/cruise-is-bringing-its-robotaxis-to-seattle-and-washington-dc/">operating</a> in Austin and Phoenix and had plans to expand to Nashville, Miami and other large cities—pulled its entire fleet nationwide. Cruise is currently in the crosshairs of federal, state and local officials.

With this tumultuous year in the rearview and a pall hanging over the industry, what will happen to robotaxis next year? The Standard interviewed four autonomous vehicle experts for their predictions about how the industry will fare in 2024 as it tries to move past Cruise’s screw-ups.

With this tumultuous year in the rearview and a pall hanging over the industry, what will happen to robotaxis next year? The Standard interviewed four autonomous vehicle experts for their predictions about how the industry will fare in 2024 as it tries to move past Cruise’s screw-ups.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-waymo-takes-the-lead-but-will-it-last">Waymo Takes the Lead, But Will It Last?</h2>

With most of the scrutiny on Cruise, Waymo is exiting 2023 pretty much unscathed and still growing. The company has been conducting trials in Los Angeles and Austin.

With most of the scrutiny on Cruise, Waymo is exiting 2023 pretty much unscathed and still growing. The company has been conducting trials in Los Angeles and Austin.

Waymo, which has been operating in Phoenix since 2018, recently expanded its services there to transport passengers to and from the airport. Insider Intelligence Senior Analyst Gadjo Sevilla considers it “an expansion that also addresses a growing need for access to reliable and legitimate taxi services in busy airports.”&nbsp;

Waymo, which has been operating in Phoenix since 2018, recently expanded its services there to transport passengers to and from the airport. Insider Intelligence Senior Analyst Gadjo Sevilla considers it “an expansion that also addresses a growing need for access to reliable and legitimate taxi services in busy airports.”&nbsp;

As of November, though, Waymo said it had no immediate plans to start serving San Francisco International Airport.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

As of November, though, Waymo said it had no immediate plans to start serving San Francisco International Airport.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

An Waymo car drives past City Hall, in San Francisco on Friday, August 18, 2023. Driverless car companies such as Waymo and Cruise lobbied the state in order to use SF as a testing ground for autonomous vehicles.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/INLINED3_1023PeskinEVWars.jpg?w=2500" alt="A Waymo is on the road in front of San Francisco City Hall. Another gray sedan is also visible on the left-bottom side of the photo" class="wp-image-215541"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A Waymo car drives past City Hall in San Francisco. Waymo elided most of the criticism lobbed at Cruise in 2023.</figcaption></figure>

Alain Kornhauser, an operations research and financial engineering professor at Princeton University, expressed wariness about Waymo’s airport ambitions. Instead, he suggested, the company should focus on where it is uniquely positioned to supplement existing transportation systems.&nbsp;

Alain Kornhauser, an operations research and financial engineering professor at Princeton University, expressed wariness about Waymo’s airport ambitions. Instead, he suggested, the company should focus on where it is uniquely positioned to supplement existing transportation systems.&nbsp;

“There are other people that can get people to the airport,” he scoffed. “The Uber and Lyft drivers can do that, OK?”

“There are other people that can get people to the airport,” he scoffed. “The Uber and Lyft drivers can do that, OK?”

Waymo published a report this month highlighting what it says is the safety of its technology compared with human-operated vehicles. Among the statistics it boasted: Seven million miles of rider-only trips, 1.76 million of which were in San Francisco, with a 70% reduction in crash rates reported to police compared with human drivers over the same number of miles. The company claims to be “scaling responsibly.”&nbsp;

Waymo published a report this month highlighting what it says is the safety of its technology compared with human-operated vehicles. Among the statistics it boasted: Seven million miles of rider-only trips, 1.76 million of which were in San Francisco, with a 70% reduction in crash rates reported to police compared with human drivers over the same number of miles. The company claims to be “scaling responsibly.”&nbsp;

Still, Koopman, the Carnegie Mellon professor, said that it’s only a matter of time before Waymo will reckon with some unforeseen incident.

Still, Koopman, the Carnegie Mellon professor, said that it’s only a matter of time before Waymo will reckon with some unforeseen incident.

“Eventually, Waymo is going to have the crash, and it&#8217;s gonna blow back on them just like it did Cruise,” Koopman said. “Because if you overhype and act in an untrustworthy way, the loss of trust, it can be catastrophic.”

“Eventually, Waymo is going to have the crash, and it's gonna blow back on them just like it did Cruise,” Koopman said. “Because if you overhype and act in an untrustworthy way, the loss of trust, it can be catastrophic.”

“Eventually, Waymo is going to have the crash, and it&#8217;s gonna blow back on them just like it did Cruise,” Koopman said. “Because if you overhype and act in an untrustworthy way, the loss of trust, it can be catastrophic.”

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-cruise-may-look-to-find-a-mate">Cruise May Look To Find a Mate</h2>

With Cruise’s disastrous year coming to an end, it doesn’t take an autonomous vehicle expert to see that the company is in a rough spot going into 2024. Three of the four experts surveyed by The Standard don’t think driverless Cruise vehicles will make it back onto San Francisco streets in 2024.

With Cruise’s disastrous year coming to an end, it doesn’t take an autonomous vehicle expert to see that the company is in a rough spot going into 2024. Three of the four experts surveyed by The Standard don’t think driverless Cruise vehicles will make it back onto San Francisco streets in 2024.

Following the October accident, Cruise’s co-founders—CEO Kyle Vogt and Chief Product Officer Dan Kan—left the company in November. At least <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/12/13/crusie-executives-fired-investigation-san-francisco-robotaxis/">nine other executives followed</a>. The <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/12/15/cruise-mass-layoffs-ex-employee-san-francisco/">company also laid off around</a> 900 employees, or about a quarter of its staff, this month. An internal investigation is ongoing.

Cruise executives fired as company accused of hiding video of San Francisco crash

Laid-off Cruise worker dishes on lingering impact of San Francisco crash on robotaxi company

Following the October accident, Cruise’s co-founders—CEO Kyle Vogt and Chief Product Officer Dan Kan—left the company in November. At least <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/12/13/crusie-executives-fired-investigation-san-francisco-robotaxis/">nine other executives followed</a>. The <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/12/15/cruise-mass-layoffs-ex-employee-san-francisco/">company also laid off around</a> 900 employees, or about a quarter of its staff, this month. An internal investigation is ongoing.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/The-Robotaxi-Revolution-Photo-1.jpg?w=2500" alt="A man in a blue jacket speaks onstage at a conference." class="wp-image-202923"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt speaks onstage during TechCrunch Disrupt 2023.</figcaption></figure>

The changes come as Cruise reorients its efforts toward “operating with the highest standards when it comes to safety, integrity and accountability,” as a company spokesperson said. The company anticipates it will relaunch in a smaller city after its problems in San Francisco.

The changes come as Cruise reorients its efforts toward “operating with the highest standards when it comes to safety, integrity and accountability,” as a company spokesperson said. The company anticipates it will relaunch in a smaller city after its problems in San Francisco.

Billy Riggs, a University of San Francisco professor and director of the school’s Autonomous Vehicles and the City Initiative, said he wouldn’t count the GM subsidiary out just yet.&nbsp;

Billy Riggs, a University of San Francisco professor and director of the school’s Autonomous Vehicles and the City Initiative, said he wouldn’t count the GM subsidiary out just yet.&nbsp;

“Point blank, Cruise will survive and successfully relaunch, but they will need to reduce their cash burn rate and take on more funding within the year,” Riggs said.

“Point blank, Cruise will survive and successfully relaunch, but they will need to reduce their cash burn rate and take on more funding within the year,” Riggs said.

Riggs suggested that Cruise find a new corporate mate—perhaps Lyft—like Waymo did with Uber. In October, the pair <a href="https://www.uber.com/newsroom/waymo-on-uber/">launched</a> a program that lets passengers hail Waymo vehicles on the much more popular Uber app. That should reduce the cost of acquiring customers while having an established partner in the transportation space.

Riggs suggested that Cruise find a new corporate mate—perhaps Lyft—like Waymo did with Uber. In October, the pair <a href="https://www.uber.com/newsroom/waymo-on-uber/">launched</a> a program that lets passengers hail Waymo vehicles on the much more popular Uber app. That should reduce the cost of acquiring customers while having an established partner in the transportation space.

Cruise will also have to adapt to GM reducing funding, however, and strategize to ensure that its remaining cash—around $1.7 billion as of Sept. 30—will last.

Cruise will also have to adapt to GM reducing funding, however, and strategize to ensure that its remaining cash—around $1.7 billion as of Sept. 30—will last.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-zoox-will-roll-out-slowly">Zoox Will Roll Out (Slowly)</h2>

Zoox has not been in conversations much, despite its cars traversing San Francisco streets with human drivers at the wheel. Given Cruise’s fumbles in 2023, the Amazon-owned competitor could out-lap Cruise—but any grand expectations should be tempered.&nbsp;

Zoox has not been in conversations much, despite its cars traversing San Francisco streets with human drivers at the wheel. Given Cruise’s fumbles in 2023, the Amazon-owned competitor could out-lap Cruise—but any grand expectations should be tempered.&nbsp;

A Zoox autonomous vehicle on a test drive through the Lombard Street of San Francisco on October 1, 2022.  Zoox is one of the 3 major autonomous vehicle and robotaxi services in San Francisco Bay Area along with Cruise and Waymo.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/1GettyImages-1243684119.jpg?w=2500" alt="A black SUV with a Zoox logo on the left front door drives on Lombard Street as pedestrians watch." class="wp-image-197187"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A Zoox autonomous vehicle on a test drive through Lombard Street. Experts say Zoox will have a modest 2024.</figcaption></figure>

Currently, it has <a href="https://zoox.com/journal/l3-autonomous-fleet/">small test fleets</a> in San Francisco, Seattle and Las Vegas—and <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zoox-purpose-built-robotaxi-is-first-in-the-world-to-operate-on-public-roads-301744681.html">secured approval</a> from the California DMV to test its fully autonomous robotaxi (similar to <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/06/gm-halts-production-of-cruise-origin-robotaxi-amid-suspended-operations/">Cruise’s halted Origin vehicle</a>) around the company’s Foster City headquarters. Only Zoox employees are able to access those rides.

Currently, it has <a href="https://zoox.com/journal/l3-autonomous-fleet/">small test fleets</a> in San Francisco, Seattle and Las Vegas—and <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zoox-purpose-built-robotaxi-is-first-in-the-world-to-operate-on-public-roads-301744681.html">secured approval</a> from the California DMV to test its fully autonomous robotaxi (similar to <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/06/gm-halts-production-of-cruise-origin-robotaxi-amid-suspended-operations/">Cruise’s halted Origin vehicle</a>) around the company’s Foster City headquarters. Only Zoox employees are able to access those rides.

“[W]e should also keep an eye out for other emerging competitors, such as Zoox or others that may enter the market,” Riggs said.

“[W]e should also keep an eye out for other emerging competitors, such as Zoox or others that may enter the market,” Riggs said.

Sevilla is skeptical that Zoox’s technology is up to snuff for “busy city centers” like San Francisco but anticipates that it could gain some traction in smaller cities.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Sevilla is skeptical that Zoox’s technology is up to snuff for “busy city centers” like San Francisco but anticipates that it could gain some traction in smaller cities.&nbsp;&nbsp;

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-robotrucks-may-zoom-quietly-ahead">Robotrucks May Zoom Quietly Ahead </h2>

While robotaxis dominated the headlines in 2023 and captured people’s imaginations, for better or worse, advancements in robotrucking quietly emerged—and they are worth watching in the new year.

While robotaxis dominated the headlines in 2023 and captured people’s imaginations, for better or worse, advancements in robotrucking quietly emerged—and they are worth watching in the new year.

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