Not that you were expecting anything else from this voodoo-doll season, but things did not get better for the 49ers with the familiar brew of penalty flags, give-aways, missed tackles, and ever-dwindling belief on Sunday in Green Bay.
Not that there was much hope once Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, and Trent Williams were ruled out for this eventual 38-10 Packers victory that sent the 49ers to a dreary 5-6 record. But it’s all getting physically, emotionally, existentially, competitively, and mathematically pretty obvious that a team that was in the Super Bowl just nine months ago will not be returning.
The bleakest moment of the season came in the first half, when the Packers blasted out to a 17-0 lead, running over and around multiple 49ers defenders on almost every play and squeezing the door shut on the overwhelmed 49ers offense, before a late second-quarter 49ers score made it 17-7.
“One of the worst ones I’ve been a part of, as far as a half,” Kyle Shanahan said after the game.
Not that 49ers fans have maintained much faith about this team for weeks now, but that lifeless first half was just about a complete postseason deal-breaker. Even if Purdy, Bosa, and Williams are back next Sunday against the surging Bills, that remains an almost unwinnable game in Buffalo. Even if the math says the 49ers are just one game behind first-place Seattle in the NFC West, the 49ers are actually in last place in the division and are positioned poorly in the playoff-tiebreaker categories.
Even if a 5-1 finish would give the 49ers a shot at the tournament, everybody knows that their remaining schedule is tough (including a Week 17 game at Levi’s Stadium against the Super Bowl-favorite Lions, who might need that game to clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed) and that the 49ers have sputtered badly against the easier parts of their schedule, anyway.
The 49ers can’t just quit now. That’s just not how the NFL works. They might get lucky in Buffalo. They could get on a roll. They still have a lot of talent. Weirder things have happened. There’s no tanking when players’ and coaches’ careers are at stake.
But logically, it also wouldn’t be terribly wrong for the 49ers’ brass to begin thinking of this season as a very frustrating “gap” year — problematic from the start, wrecked by injuries, not handled wonderfully by anybody, but also potentially not a total waste if the 49ers can build a constructive bridge to the 2025 season.
Of course, any kind of advance planning is predicated on the belief that Shanahan and John Lynch will still be running the 49ers next season and will be extremely motivated to turn 2025 into a crowning moment. I don’t see Jed York making wholesale changes based on one crummy season. Now, if 2025 turns out to be just as disappointing as this season — or goes even lower? That’s an entirely different question. Which only underlines how important it is for Shanahan and Lynch to refurbish the foundations of what they’ve built. And they can begin some of it now.
Ease up on the workload for their weariest stars
Call it the opposite of a Super Bowl Hangover: The 49ers’ main guys have played a ton of extra football in the past three postseasons and could get an energy boost in 2025 if their playing time tails off starting right now — and obviously includes no playoff games. Of course, it’s never a goal to miss the playoffs. But to keep going year after year takes a toll. We’re seeing some of it now. The Chiefs are the only current team that’s seemingly immune to this, and I’ll chalk that up to the Patrick Mahomes Exception.
Trent Williams, for sure, could use some time off this season that he wouldn’t get if the 49ers were driving for a top seed. Bosa, Fred Warner, and George Kittle — who might be very displeased to hear anybody suggest this — don’t need to be driven into the ground in December just to try to keep a flagging season alive.
And a big-picture approach could be a long-term plus for Christian McCaffrey — who assuredly will be especially peeved to stand on the sideline when he’s ready to play. But you have to believe that his leg injuries to start this season were at least partially caused by the 417 regular- and postseason touches McCaffrey got last season. He’s at 56 touches so far this season. He’ll also turn 29 next June. Think he’ll be full-tilt for one or two more great seasons if his workload is kept super-low this season? I think so. And the 49ers have Jordan Mason right there to carry the ball at least half the time for the next six games.
Play the young guys
The 49ers are already playing many more first- and second-year guys than in recent years, particularly in the defensive secondary. But they could play more. In addition to Mason, the 49ers have some room now to expand their group of core players.
Is Dee Winters ready to be an every-down linebacker? When Jacob Cowing is back from concussion protocol, can he be a playmaker from the slot? Is Ricky Pearsall ready to become a main guy? Is Darrell Luter really a potential CB3? Shanahan has avoided running youngsters out there until he was confident they wouldn’t screw up a playoff run, but, well, there’s not that much to screw up these days.
The last time the 49ers went through a malaise year, not coincidentally, was the season following their previous Super Bowl trip in February 2020. That’s when Bosa, Garoppolo, Kittle, and others all missed significant time.
What snapped them out of that funk the next season? Their stars showed up in 2021 after a slow start, but also younger players like Warner, Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, and Elijah Mitchell really stepped forward. I don’t know if the 49ers have that kind of young cadre this time around, but they’ve got some possibilities. And it would be good for the 49ers to start really finding out now.
Figure out if defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen is a keeper
The defensive effort was bad in the first half in Sunday — and Shanahan made sure to say so. Which probably isn’t the greatest sign of security for Sorensen, who wasn’t Shanahan’s first, second, or probably even third choice to replace Steve Wilks last year.
But the 49ers’ defense tightened up in the second half, only allowing points after three 49ers turnovers gave the Packers short fields. And the 49ers actually averaged more yards than Green Bay in this game, 5.1 to 4.9, which was mainly a tribute to the 49ers’ second-half defensive effort.
Even while they were winning last season, the top 49ers’ defenders were issuing not-so-veiled hints that they weren’t very comfortable with Wilks. So Shanahan made the change despite a Super Bowl run — and despite the defense playing pretty well against Mahomes in that game.
So far, there’s been very little indication that there’s discontent about Sorensen or his schemes. But can he go toe-to-toe with the best offensive coordinators? Maybe this game against Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur — when Sorensen didn’t have Bosa, remember — was a sign: terrible at the start, but enough adjustments and cohesion to get it under control and actually give the 49ers a chance in the second half.
No tanking, though
After this loss, the 49ers are now slotted to draft 16th in the 2025 draft, according to the Tankathon website. That’s up two slots from their position before this weekend.
I don’t know how much higher the 49ers can get — 13 teams currently have seven losses or more and eight teams have eight losses or more. However mad you are at the 49ers, folks, let me tell you, most of the teams ahead if them will lose many more games the rest of this season.
The 49ers can play it out, naturally. They’ll probably lose at least two or three more games. That’ll get them around 9-8 or 8-9 and a pick in the teens. That’s not awful. It can be a stepping stone to 2025. So can a lot of things.