5 keys to Game 7: How the Warriors can keep their season alive

After the Warriors won Game 4, they earned three cracks at advancing to the Western Conference Semifinals. 

They’re down to one. 

The Warriors face a do-or-die Game 7 at the Toyota Center on Sunday night. If they win, they’ll face the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday. If they lose, they’ll have blown the second 3-1 lead of the Steph Curry era and have exited in the first round for the first time since Steve Kerr took over as head coach ahead of the 2014-2015 season.

Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler have more Game 7 experience than the entire Houston Rockets roster combined. But the Rockets have momentum and five of the last six teams who have forced a Game 7 after falling behind 3-1 in a series have advanced. 

Anything can happen in a one-game situation. This is how Golden State can keep its hopes alive. 

The Rockets have outscored the Warriors by 53 points with veteran center Steven Adams on the floor. His presence has been the single biggest factor in Houston’s comeback. Rockets coach Ime Udoka has recognized it, too, playing Adams a season-high 31 minutes in Game 6. 

With both Adams and Alperen Sengun on the court, the Rockets have posted a ludicrous 46.3% offensive rebounding rate. Even when Houston’s offense goes through rough spells, that tandem has kept the Rockets afloat by putting back misses or otherwise creating second chances. 

For years, the Warriors have played lumbering centers like Adams off the court with their spacing and pace. But the Rockets have successfully hid Adams in a zone defense, which has stymied the Warriors for long stretches. 

If the Warriors can’t shoot the Rockets out of their zone — thus forcing the Rockets to bench Adams — they’ll have to do a better job gang rebounding and tracking down loose balls. Butler, Curry and Green each singled out 50/50 balls as a clear area to improve on after the Game 6 loss. Several times, the Warriors tried to tip out rebounds instead of just grabbing them. 

The problem could lead to more playing time for Kevon Looney.

“I trust Loon implicitly based on being together for 10 years, seeing him perform in so many of these big games,” Kerr said before Game 7. “I would expect Loon to play more than he did (in Game 6).” 

Every possession matters, and the difference in a Game 7 could come down to simply being first to a handful of long rebounds that are up for grabs.

In the Warriors’ three wins this series, they’ve turned the ball over 10, 10 and 14 times. In their losses, they’ve coughed it up 15, 14 and 17 times. 

That’s not a coincidence. 

Entering the series, the Warriors believed that if they could limit their turnovers and thereby force the Rockets to play in the halfcourt, they’d be in good shape. That has mostly held true. 

Some of the Warriors’ turnovers have been self-inflicted mental mistakes, but several have been in the halfcourt against Houston’s zone defense. The Rockets are packing the paint and filtering the ball out to non-threatening playmakers like Green, Moses Moody and Gary Payton II. In moments the Warriors hesitate or try to force passes to Curry or Butler, the Rockets have pounced. 

Sometimes, basketball is simple. Play hard and play smart. When it comes to the latter, the Warriors just need to be poised enough to limit their turnovers. 

Even against Houston’s zone, the Warriors are generating open shots. The players taking them have just been misfiring. 

Last game, the non-Curry Warriors shot 9-for-33 (27%) from behind the 3-point arc. Many of those looks were clean, too. 

In Games 5 and 6, Warriors role players have routinely clanked open 3s. Buddy Hield is shooting 29% from 3-point range on the series. Quinten Post is at 30.8% while giving a lot back on the defensive end. Brandin Podziemski dropped 26 points in Game 4, but has otherwise struggled to score. 

With the Warriors’ limitations at finishing in the paint among Houston’s trees, Golden State’s best chance at forcing the Rockets to change their defensive scheme is to shoot them out of the zone. 

In the past three games, Fred VanVleet is 18-for-27 (67%) from beyond the arc. He has been automatic off the catch, on second chance opportunities, and in the pick-and-roll. He shot just 35% from the outside this season, but he’s playing like it’s 2019. 

The Warriors inserted Payton II into the starting lineup to try to slow the point guard down, to no avail. 

Perhaps Moody, who has come on strong recently, gets a crack at him; he defended well at the point of attack in the second half of the season by using his wingspan to his advantage. Maybe the Warriors send more traps early to prevent VanVleet from catching a rhythm. 

The Rockets have been a mediocre offensive team this season. That changes if VanVleet continues to play like he has during the Rockets’ comeback. If the Warriors force him to crash back down to earth, Houston could once again struggle to score in the half court. 

The last time Curry played a Game 7, he dropped 50 points in a win over Sacramento. 

“It was just a great game overall, hopefully I can repeat that,” Curry said. 

Amen Thompson has done a solid job defending Curry on the ball, pressuring him the length of the court. Thompson, VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Tari Eason have all been physical with Curry. They’ve held him to three straight inefficient shooting nights. 

But Curry has seen every kind of defensive coverage, and regardless of what the 37-year-old is dealing with physically, he’s capable of erupting. He did it in wins in Game 1 (31 points) and Game 4 without Butler (36 points). He might just have to put on his cape again. 

All year, Curry has just asked for a chance. He has fiended for meaningful basketball. 

This is as meaningful as it gets.