Though public transit is a perpetual punching bag for San Francisco critics, if you look closer, a real transformation has been happening at Muni.
In the wake of the pandemic, the public agency that runs San Francisco’s transit system has been making significant changes that have improved speed, reliability, cleanliness, and safety. By all measures, these efforts are paying off. Ridership is up on many core routes, with nearly 1 million more riders overall since the same time last year. And customer satisfaction is significantly higher than before the pandemic, recently earning its highest rating from riders since 2001.
As an advocate for high-quality transit, the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) has sometimes been one of Muni’s critics. In our 2005 report “Reversing Muni’s Downward Spiral,” we argued that Muni was on an unsustainable trajectory, with a $60 million deficit and costs increasing much faster than revenues.
At the time, SPUR proposed two key remedies. First, we argued that Muni should invest in making buses faster and more reliable. Second, we urged Muni to carry more riders and reduce wait times and delays on its most productive routes. Over the last four years, Muni has done both.
Ridership continues to steadily increase. The Van Ness Corridor has almost 50% more riders than pre-COVID levels on weekdays and weekends. Overall, Muni carried 900,000 more trips this September over that time last year, and weekday ridership is back up to 78% of pre-pandemic levels. This year, 72% of customers rated Muni as good or excellent, its highest satisfaction rating in more than 20 years.
The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) has restructured Muni service to adapt to post-pandemic travel patterns, adding service on routes that serve schools and in neighborhoods with high percentages of low-income households. Muni has speeded up buses on many routes with improvements that get transit out of traffic and reduce delays. In the last four years, the agency delivered 22 miles of new or upgraded transit lanes, the fastest expansion in the city’s history.
Twenty years ago, Muni was in a downward spiral, and now Muni appears to be enjoying a virtuous cycle. But that cycle can only continue with the support of voters on Nov. 5. Due largely to factors beyond its control, Muni is facing an imminent annual operating shortfall estimated at $239 million to $322 million, beginning in 2026. This is where Propositions L and M on this year’s ballot become essential.
The true source of financial uncertainty
Muni’s financial woes are neither the result of mismanagement nor inefficiency (and certainly not its use of floppy disks for train control systems). In fact, SFMTA has been a careful steward of public dollars. The agency has reduced its expenditures by nearly $100 million with these transit priority investments and by consolidating agency functions, with expenses rising less than the rate of inflation.
Fare evasion has increased in recent years, from 12% of riders who didn’t pay before the pandemic to an estimated 20% avoiding payment now. But the vast majority of riders do pay their share, either onboard or with passes before they board. Muni has also recently added back more than 30 fare inspectors to improve fare compliance. Crimes reported to the police department are actually lower than they were in the fall of 2019, and they have been steadily decreasing for a decade.
In reality, Muni’s structural deficit is a reflection of the broader economic conditions and tax policies of San Francisco. The biggest hits to Muni’s budget today are the loss in parking revenues due to remote work and the decline in tourism and conventions, and the slowing rate of growth in the city’s general fund. The latter funding source — which makes up 39% of the agency’s budget — isn’t growing as fast as it used to due to the post-pandemic slowdown in citywide economic activity. In short, Muni’s financial problems are far outside its control. But they’re not outside voters’ ability to help.
Two propositions on this year’s ballot are important for Muni’s future. Prop. L would place a tax on Uber and Lyft rides that take place entirely in the city, helping to mend the hole that today’s revenue shortfalls have created. Prop. M would diversify the sources of revenue for the city budget and reduce the financial burden on small businesses, which makes the city’s general fund more resilient over the long run. When the city budget is healthy and stable, Muni, too, has a chance of being healthy and stable.
SFMTA’s efforts are nothing short of transformative. The agency has proven itself to be nimble, efficient, responsive, and entrepreneurial — and worthy of your vote. Voting yes on Props M and L will keep Muni’s steady progress going. Let’s not let this turnaround story reverse course.
Laura Tolkoff is transportation policy director, and Jim Chappell is president and executive director emeritus of SPUR.