Annie Gaus

They’ve become a familiar sight and sound to many San Franciscans: Sideshows and other car stunts that block intersections, damage streets and—in worst-case scenarios—cause serious injuries.&nbsp;

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They’ve become a familiar sight and sound to many San Franciscans: Sideshows and other car stunts that block intersections, damage streets and—in worst-case scenarios—cause serious injuries.&nbsp;

At a Board of Supervisors hearing on Thursday, a group of city officials detailed the impact on city residents and introduced plans to deter the risky antics in San Francisco neighborhoods.&nbsp;

At a Board of Supervisors hearing on Thursday, a group of city officials detailed the impact on city residents and introduced plans to deter the risky antics in San Francisco neighborhoods.&nbsp;

“I believe the more we coordinate, suppress and intervene&#8230;the more people get word that San Francisco isn’t the place to do this type of activity,” said Supervisor Ahsha Safai, who convened a hearing with the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD), the Department of Public Works (DPW) and the San Francisco Municipal Transit Agency (SFMTA) to discuss sideshows and stunt driving.

“I believe the more we coordinate, suppress and intervene...the more people get word that San Francisco isn’t the place to do this type of activity,” said Supervisor Ahsha Safai, who convened a hearing with the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD), the Department of Public Works (DPW) and the San Francisco Municipal Transit Agency (SFMTA) to discuss sideshows and stunt driving.

“I believe the more we coordinate, suppress and intervene&#8230;the more people get word that San Francisco isn’t the place to do this type of activity,” said Supervisor Ahsha Safai, who convened a hearing with the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD), the Department of Public Works (DPW) and the San Francisco Municipal Transit Agency (SFMTA) to discuss sideshows and stunt driving.

The events are largely coordinated over social media, including “online gaming forums,” said SFPD Commander Daniel Perea. The most frequent stunt driving activity takes place in the southeastern part of San Francisco, with hotspots in the Mission, Bayview and Ingleside districts, though residents report incidents in many corners of the city.

The events are largely coordinated over social media, including “online gaming forums,” said SFPD Commander Daniel Perea. The most frequent stunt driving activity takes place in the southeastern part of San Francisco, with hotspots in the Mission, Bayview and Ingleside districts, though residents report incidents in many corners of the city.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Screen-Shot-2021-07-22-at-6.11.09-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-6812"/><figcaption>Onlookers film a sideshow in San Francisco on July 11, 2021. | Photo courtesy of Twitter user @swollenbabies</figcaption></figure>

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Screen-Shot-2021-07-22-at-6.11.09-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-6812"/><figcaption>Onlookers film a sideshow in San Francisco on July 11, 2021. | Photo courtesy of Twitter user @swollenbabies</figcaption></figure>

“They’re in areas that have ready access to interstate highways,” said Perea. “The majority of these folks that we’ve encountered, whose vehicles we’ve seized or who have been cited, have been from counties like Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Sonoma, Solano, Stanislaus and Sacramento.”&nbsp;

“They’re in areas that have ready access to interstate highways,” said Perea. “The majority of these folks that we’ve encountered, whose vehicles we’ve seized or who have been cited, have been from counties like Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Sonoma, Solano, Stanislaus and Sacramento.”&nbsp;

Last year, the Board of Supervisors <a href="https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/supes-pass-legislation-to-increase-penalties-for-sideshow-drivers/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">passed an ordinance</a> allowing vehicles involved in stunt driving to be impounded for up to 30 days. In tandem, SFPD established a stunt driving response unit intended to deter the practice.&nbsp;

Last year, the Board of Supervisors <a href="https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/supes-pass-legislation-to-increase-penalties-for-sideshow-drivers/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">passed an ordinance</a> allowing vehicles involved in stunt driving to be impounded for up to 30 days. In tandem, SFPD established a stunt driving response unit intended to deter the practice.&nbsp;

Between October 2020 and June 2021, that unit seized 31 vehicles and issued 225 warnings to vehicles identified at stunt driving events. Only one of the individuals who received citations or vehicle impounds was from San Francisco, according to Perea.&nbsp;

Between October 2020 and June 2021, that unit seized 31 vehicles and issued 225 warnings to vehicles identified at stunt driving events. Only one of the individuals who received citations or vehicle impounds was from San Francisco, according to Perea.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, SFMTA has begun installing small speed bumps and other traffic deterrents in an effort to prevent sideshows in certain hotspots. The agency is also tasked with cleanup from sideshows and stunts that damage intersections, said Ricardo Olea, a traffic engineer at SFMTA.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, SFMTA has begun installing small speed bumps and other traffic deterrents in an effort to prevent sideshows in certain hotspots. The agency is also tasked with cleanup from sideshows and stunts that damage intersections, said Ricardo Olea, a traffic engineer at SFMTA.&nbsp;

“On the MTA side, the cost to repaint a crosswalk is between $3,000 and $5,000 per intersection,” he said. “There is an opportunity cost as well…[SFMTA staff] are basically having to go out repeatedly to repaint crosswalks.”&nbsp;

“On the MTA side, the cost to repaint a crosswalk is between $3,000 and $5,000 per intersection,” he said. “There is an opportunity cost as well…[SFMTA staff] are basically having to go out repeatedly to repaint crosswalks.”&nbsp;

Likewise, a representative at DPW reported that between staff time and materials, costs of repair from a sideshow that damages city property run at least $2,800.&nbsp;

Likewise, a representative at DPW reported that between staff time and materials, costs of repair from a sideshow that damages city property run at least $2,800.&nbsp;

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Image-from-iOS-edited-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-6773"/><figcaption>The aftermath of a sideshow in the Bayview District on July 22, 2021. | Photo by Meaghan Mitchell</figcaption></figure>

“That is cost, and again, that’s money SFMTA or DPW can be putting into Vision Zero or other traffic calming,” added Safai. In 2014, San Francisco adopted <a href="https://www.visionzerosf.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Vision Zero</a>, which has a policy goal of eliminating fatal traffic incidents by 2024.&nbsp;

“That is cost, and again, that’s money SFMTA or DPW can be putting into Vision Zero or other traffic calming,” added Safai. In 2014, San Francisco adopted <a href="https://www.visionzerosf.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Vision Zero</a>, which has a policy goal of eliminating fatal traffic incidents by 2024.&nbsp;

In June, San Jose <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/29/san-jose-makes-it-a-crime-to-encourage-illegal-street-racing-on-social-media/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">passed an ordinance</a> making it a crime to promote sideshows on social media. Under that law, violators could be charged with a misdemeanor and face fines of up to $1,000 and six months in jail.

In June, San Jose <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/29/san-jose-makes-it-a-crime-to-encourage-illegal-street-racing-on-social-media/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">passed an ordinance</a> making it a crime to promote sideshows on social media. Under that law, violators could be charged with a misdemeanor and face fines of up to $1,000 and six months in jail.

Safai said that San Jose’s ordinance was likely too broad to be applicable in San Francisco, but that the Board of Supervisors will monitor sideshow activity over the next six to nine months to see if the new deterrent measures have any effect.&nbsp;

Safai said that San Jose’s ordinance was likely too broad to be applicable in San Francisco, but that the Board of Supervisors will monitor sideshow activity over the next six to nine months to see if the new deterrent measures have any effect.&nbsp;

“Unfortunately, this is something we have to come at with the angle that it can’t be tolerated,” he said.&nbsp;

“Unfortunately, this is something we have to come at with the angle that it can’t be tolerated,” he said.&nbsp;

Sideshows, ‘stunt driving’ are costing the city, say supervisors

Kevin Truong

Imagine a slow-moving train coming towards you. The lights are shining, the horn is blaring, but it’s just far enough in the distance that the risk doesn’t seem real just yet.&nbsp;

Imagine a slow-moving train coming towards you. The lights are shining, the horn is blaring, but it’s just far enough in the distance that the risk doesn’t seem real just yet.&nbsp;

That’s a fitting-enough analogy for the state of San Francisco&#8217;s commercial real estate market, which is tilting towards a collapse in property values, leaving the city, its budget and its ability to provide services tied to the tracks.&nbsp;

That’s a fitting-enough analogy for the state of San Francisco's commercial real estate market, which is tilting towards a collapse in property values, leaving the city, its budget and its ability to provide services tied to the tracks.&nbsp;

That’s a fitting-enough analogy for the state of San Francisco&#8217;s commercial real estate market, which is tilting towards a collapse in property values, leaving the city, its budget and its ability to provide services tied to the tracks.&nbsp;

The root of this—of course—is the pandemic and the way that it has completely transformed work patterns in the city, hollowing out a downtown core that once accounted for most of San Francisco’s GDP, 70% of its sales tax revenue and 40% of the city’s jobs. And there’s an uneasy feeling among a coalition of business groups that city leaders are sleepwalking into an economic calamity with far-reaching consequences.

The root of this—of course—is the pandemic and the way that it has completely transformed work patterns in the city, hollowing out a downtown core that once accounted for most of San Francisco’s GDP, 70% of its sales tax revenue and 40% of the city’s jobs. And there’s an uneasy feeling among a coalition of business groups that city leaders are sleepwalking into an economic calamity with far-reaching consequences.

Signal lights of the city’s tenuous fiscal future are starting to flash. Major tech employers like Yelp and Airbnb have <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/san-francisco-tax-code-encourages-work-from-home/">fled</a> or gone fully remote, leading to mass office vacancies. A swath <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2022/08/26/san-francisco-assessment-appeals-board.html">of commercial landlords</a> are seeking massive reductions in their assessed property values—and associated tax bills. And a recent report from the Urban Displacement Project <a href="https://www.downtownrecovery.com/dashboards/recovery_ranking.html">ranked the city’s downtown recovery</a> as dead last among more than 60 cities across North America.&nbsp;

Signal lights of the city’s tenuous fiscal future are starting to flash. Major tech employers like Yelp and Airbnb have <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/san-francisco-tax-code-encourages-work-from-home/">fled</a> or gone fully remote, leading to mass office vacancies. A swath <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2022/08/26/san-francisco-assessment-appeals-board.html">of commercial landlords</a> are seeking massive reductions in their assessed property values—and associated tax bills. And a recent report from the Urban Displacement Project <a href="https://www.downtownrecovery.com/dashboards/recovery_ranking.html">ranked the city’s downtown recovery</a> as dead last among more than 60 cities across North America.&nbsp;

‘Uncharted Territory’

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">‘Uncharted Territory’</h2>

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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">‘Uncharted Territory’</h2>

It’s no secret that office vacancies are high in SF’s downtown. But even as the pandemic wanes, an already-troubling outlook for downtown could only get worse.&nbsp;

It’s no secret that office vacancies are high in SF’s downtown. But even as the pandemic wanes, an already-troubling outlook for downtown could only get worse.&nbsp;

That’s because a slew of office leases signed at the height of the city’s economic boom are poised to expire over the next few years, further inflating vacancies and diminishing what the office towers that draw the city’s skyline are worth. There’s currently more than 25 million square feet of commercial space available for lease or sublease in the city, the equivalent of about 35 Transamerica Pyramids sitting empty.&nbsp;

That’s because a slew of office leases signed at the height of the city’s economic boom are poised to expire over the next few years, further inflating vacancies and diminishing what the office towers that draw the city’s skyline are worth. There’s currently more than 25 million square feet of commercial space available for lease or sublease in the city, the equivalent of about 35 Transamerica Pyramids sitting empty.&nbsp;

Empty desks in the SD Mayer Accounting firm office in San Francisco, Calif., on Friday, July 29, 2022. | Juliana Yamada/The Standard

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/CommercialPropertyTax-INLINE2.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-73298"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Empty desks in the SD Mayer Accounting firm office on July 29, 2022. | Juliana Yamada/The Standard</figcaption></figure>

“We’re way above anything that was happening in the Great Recession and dot-com era days,” said Jay Shaffer, a co-founder and principal at Colton Commercial &amp; Partners. “We have this shadow market of sublease availability in seemingly uncharted territories. And sublease inventory is still rising.”&nbsp;

“We’re way above anything that was happening in the Great Recession and dot-com era days,” said Jay Shaffer, a co-founder and principal at Colton Commercial &amp; Partners. “We have this shadow market of sublease availability in seemingly uncharted territories. And sublease inventory is still rising.”&nbsp;

Citing data from real estate firm JLL, SF’s chief economist Ted Egan <a href="https://sfcontroller.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Economic%20Analysis/economic_context_for_development.pdf">tagged future vacancies</a>, in a worst case scenario, as high as 53% in the Jackson Square area and 43% in the mid-Market area in 2024 as the clock runs out on office leases.

Citing data from real estate firm JLL, SF’s chief economist Ted Egan <a href="https://sfcontroller.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Economic%20Analysis/economic_context_for_development.pdf">tagged future vacancies</a>, in a worst case scenario, as high as 53% in the Jackson Square area and 43% in the mid-Market area in 2024 as the clock runs out on office leases.

The current vacancy epidemic cuts across buildings of all sizes and price ranges in San Francisco’s downtown core, from the struggling mid-Market area to the sparkling office towers of the East Cut.&nbsp;

The current vacancy epidemic cuts across buildings of all sizes and price ranges in San Francisco’s downtown core, from the struggling mid-Market area to the sparkling office towers of the East Cut.&nbsp;

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For example, 415 Natoma, a 653,900 sq foot office tower owned by Brookfield Properties that was the sole ground-up office project to deliver in San Francisco in 2021, currently has just one announced lease: 20,000 square feet taken by “remote-first” startup Thumbtack. Nearby office towers 123 Mission (Juul Labs, Inc.), 50 Fremont (Salesforce.com, Inc.) and 199 Fremont (CalSTRS) were each at least 30% vacant, according to CoStar data, along with a constellation of other big office buildings.&nbsp;&nbsp;

For example, 415 Natoma, a 653,900 sq foot office tower owned by Brookfield Properties that was the sole ground-up office project to deliver in San Francisco in 2021, currently has just one announced lease: 20,000 square feet taken by “remote-first” startup Thumbtack. Nearby office towers 123 Mission (Juul Labs, Inc.), 50 Fremont (Salesforce.com, Inc.) and 199 Fremont (CalSTRS) were each at least 30% vacant, according to CoStar data, along with a constellation of other big office buildings.&nbsp;&nbsp;

A few large buildings, like 550 California St. and 455 Market St, were <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/real-estate-san-francisco-17414133.php">placed on the market</a> in recent months at deep discounts to what they would have fetched before the pandemic, but were eventually pulled when offers came in that were even lower than those already-discounted prices.

A few large buildings, like 550 California St. and 455 Market St, were <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/real-estate-san-francisco-17414133.php">placed on the market</a> in recent months at deep discounts to what they would have fetched before the pandemic, but were eventually pulled when offers came in that were even lower than those already-discounted prices.

In the case of 550 California St., a downtown office tower owned by Wells Fargo, bids came in at 60% to 70% under what the building would have sold for in 2019, real estate brokers said.&nbsp;

In the case of 550 California St., a downtown office tower owned by Wells Fargo, bids came in at 60% to 70% under what the building would have sold for in 2019, real estate brokers said.&nbsp;

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/image-6.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-190264"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Screenshot</figcaption></figure>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Zombie Buildings&nbsp;</h2>

The risk of a San Francisco real estate collapse is palpable enough that it’s caught the attention of at least one Wall Street hedge fund—and not in a good way.&nbsp;

The risk of a San Francisco real estate collapse is palpable enough that it’s caught the attention of at least one Wall Street hedge fund—and not in a good way.&nbsp;

Dan McNamara, founder of New York hedge fund Polpo Capital, became known for the lucrative short bets he made against regional malls run into the ground by e-commerce and Amazon.&nbsp;

Dan McNamara, founder of New York hedge fund Polpo Capital, became known for the lucrative short bets he made against regional malls run into the ground by e-commerce and Amazon.&nbsp;

Now, McNamara is eyeing the commercial office market for another short bet, and San Francisco is near the top of his list. McNamara started his firm last year to take advantage of what he considers to be mispricings in the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market.

Now, McNamara is eyeing the commercial office market for another short bet, and San Francisco is near the top of his list. McNamara started his firm last year to take advantage of what he considers to be mispricings in the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market.

“We thought there was a unique opportunity to take advantage of the impending distress within the commercial real estate market,” McNamara said. “San Francisco has been an amazing example of this; we’ve had all these tech companies that have been driving office space usage for the past 20 years. But we believe that’s changed forever.”

“We thought there was a unique opportunity to take advantage of the impending distress within the commercial real estate market,” McNamara said. “San Francisco has been an amazing example of this; we’ve had all these tech companies that have been driving office space usage for the past 20 years. But we believe that’s changed forever.”

A<a href="https://itep.sfo2.digitaloceanspaces.com/20211101_PropertyTaxReport.pdf"> report published in November</a> by the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) calculated that San Francisco could see a short-term decline in commercial property values of up to 43%, the highest projected in the study.

A<a href="https://itep.sfo2.digitaloceanspaces.com/20211101_PropertyTaxReport.pdf"> report published in November</a> by the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) calculated that San Francisco could see a short-term decline in commercial property values of up to 43%, the highest projected in the study.

The logic is obvious: San Francisco’s software-dominant economy pivoted easily away from offices during the pandemic, and has <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/san-francisco-tax-code-encourages-work-from-home/">little incentive to return.&nbsp;</a>

The logic is obvious: San Francisco’s software-dominant economy pivoted easily away from offices during the pandemic, and has <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/san-francisco-tax-code-encourages-work-from-home/">little incentive to return.&nbsp;</a>

In some ways, the city is a victim of its own success by creating an economic model so heavily dependent on tech in the aftermath of the Great Recession, said Wade Rose, president of the business advocacy group Advance SF.

In some ways, the city is a victim of its own success by creating an economic model so heavily dependent on tech in the aftermath of the Great Recession, said Wade Rose, president of the business advocacy group Advance SF.

“We initiated the growth of an economic sector that could pivot on a dime,” Rose said. “So they closed down fast and exposed this vulnerability.”

“We initiated the growth of an economic sector that could pivot on a dime,” Rose said. “So they closed down fast and exposed this vulnerability.”

Lenders have taken a dim view of the office market and that’s doubly true for slow-to-recover San Francisco, leaving fewer options for refinancing.&nbsp;

Lenders have taken a dim view of the office market and that’s doubly true for slow-to-recover San Francisco, leaving fewer options for refinancing.&nbsp;

“It&#8217;s frozen,” McNamara said of current market conditions. “I do believe San Francisco is the most challenging office market today partly due to the fact they became oversupplied very quickly when the model changed to hybrid.”

“It's frozen,” McNamara said of current market conditions. “I do believe San Francisco is the most challenging office market today partly due to the fact they became oversupplied very quickly when the model changed to hybrid.”

“It&#8217;s frozen,” McNamara said of current market conditions. “I do believe San Francisco is the most challenging office market today partly due to the fact they became oversupplied very quickly when the model changed to hybrid.”

The properties most at risk are mid- to lower-tier buildings purchased near the peak of the market. Commercial real estate insiders say that those property owners are negotiating with lenders to avoid foreclosure, but that it may be sooner rather than later before the dam starts to break.

The properties most at risk are mid- to lower-tier buildings purchased near the peak of the market. Commercial real estate insiders say that those property owners are negotiating with lenders to avoid foreclosure, but that it may be sooner rather than later before the dam starts to break.

McNamara sees refinancing issues leading to defaults, delinquencies and a class of unoccupied “zombie-type buildings.” That may be already starting to happen.

McNamara sees refinancing issues leading to defaults, delinquencies and a class of unoccupied “zombie-type buildings.” That may be already starting to happen.

Of the some 200 large properties identified by CoStar as “high vacancy,” at least three have defaulted on their 2021 property tax bills, according to a city tax database. Those include a property at 25 Taylor St. formerly occupied by the coworking firm WeWork, and a 1182 Market St. property formerly owned by the local real estate giant Shorenstein Properties.

Of the some 200 large properties identified by CoStar as “high vacancy,” at least three have defaulted on their 2021 property tax bills, according to a city tax database. Those include a property at 25 Taylor St. formerly occupied by the coworking firm WeWork, and a 1182 Market St. property formerly owned by the local real estate giant Shorenstein Properties.

Other building owners are asking the city to cut their tax bills on the grounds that their buildings have lost much of their value—as much as half, in some cases.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Other building owners are asking the city to cut their tax bills on the grounds that their buildings have lost much of their value—as much as half, in some cases.&nbsp;&nbsp;

It’s not unusual for landlords to ask for revisions to their tax bills in an economic downturn. But the pandemic’s impact on real estate was dramatic enough that the city’s assessor-recorder, Joaquin Torres, took the step of surveying property owners and calculating a temporary property value reduction of $2.89 billion, out of $328.5 billion in total assessed value, in the last fiscal year. He said it’s too soon to know what the longer-term impact will be.

It’s not unusual for landlords to ask for revisions to their tax bills in an economic downturn. But the pandemic’s impact on real estate was dramatic enough that the city’s assessor-recorder, Joaquin Torres, took the step of surveying property owners and calculating a temporary property value reduction of $2.89 billion, out of $328.5 billion in total assessed value, in the last fiscal year. He said it’s too soon to know what the longer-term impact will be.

“We just don’t know yet,” Torres said. “It&#8217;s a wait-and-see approach right now as we continue to defend the values that we have.”

“We just don’t know yet,” Torres said. “It's a wait-and-see approach right now as we continue to defend the values that we have.”

“We just don’t know yet,” Torres said. “It&#8217;s a wait-and-see approach right now as we continue to defend the values that we have.”

The Prop. 13 Effect&nbsp;

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Prop. 13 Effect&nbsp;</h2>

The pandemic has already eroded the city’s business and sales taxes, both of which are reliant on downtown commuters. A hit to the city’s biggest source of tax revenue—property taxes—could be even more devastating.&nbsp;

The pandemic has already eroded the city’s business and sales taxes, both of which are reliant on downtown commuters. A hit to the city’s biggest source of tax revenue—property taxes—could be even more devastating.&nbsp;

Because of Prop. 13, San Francisco has some protection from a sudden collapse in property tax revenue. That 1978 law, which limited when properties can be reassessed for tax purposes to the point of sale and restricted annual appreciation to 2%, has the effect of stabilizing property tax rolls in a downturn.&nbsp;

Because of Prop. 13, San Francisco has some protection from a sudden collapse in property tax revenue. That 1978 law, which limited when properties can be reassessed for tax purposes to the point of sale and restricted annual appreciation to 2%, has the effect of stabilizing property tax rolls in a downturn.&nbsp;

Older buildings—even ones worth tens of millions at market prices—can pay taxes based on decades-old valuations. By contrast, newer towers spun up or sold during the last decade’s development frenzy contribute staggering sums to the city’s rolls, helping to drive property tax revenue in the city’s general fund north of $2.3 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year.&nbsp;

Older buildings—even ones worth tens of millions at market prices—can pay taxes based on decades-old valuations. By contrast, newer towers spun up or sold during the last decade’s development frenzy contribute staggering sums to the city’s rolls, helping to drive property tax revenue in the city’s general fund north of $2.3 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year.&nbsp;

But no one seems to have clear answers on what the pandemic will do to that cash cow. And the city’s own forecasts are looking increasingly out of step with reality as tech’s remote-dominant office culture metastasizes into a state of permanence.&nbsp;&nbsp;

But no one seems to have clear answers on what the pandemic will do to that cash cow. And the city’s own forecasts are looking increasingly out of step with reality as tech’s remote-dominant office culture metastasizes into a state of permanence.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The city’s most recent budget forecasts estimate that office workers will <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/remote-work-san-francisco-downtown/">telecommute 33% of the time</a> when an in-person return to the office stabilizes.​​​​ That number seems strikingly optimistic compared to data from key card company Kastle Systems indicating that SF’s downtown offices are only about 30% full.&nbsp;

The city’s most recent budget forecasts estimate that office workers will <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/remote-work-san-francisco-downtown/">telecommute 33% of the time</a> when an in-person return to the office stabilizes.​​​​ That number seems strikingly optimistic compared to data from key card company Kastle Systems indicating that SF’s downtown offices are only about 30% full.&nbsp;

Rose suggested that the infusion of federal stimulus funds during the pandemic may have lulled city leaders into a false sense of financial security.

Rose suggested that the infusion of federal stimulus funds during the pandemic may have lulled city leaders into a false sense of financial security.

“The city didn’t have to fire anybody and there wasn’t so much immediate pain felt,” Rose said. “There’s a propensity to say, don’t make it worse than it is.”

“The city didn’t have to fire anybody and there wasn’t so much immediate pain felt,” Rose said. “There’s a propensity to say, don’t make it worse than it is.”

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-heads-in-the-sand">Heads in the Sand</h2>

Rose sees an inflection point when leases expire, buildings are revalued, budgets are slashed and the problem can no longer be ignored.&nbsp;

Rose sees an inflection point when leases expire, buildings are revalued, budgets are slashed and the problem can no longer be ignored.&nbsp;

The city’s budget office expects property tax revenues to continue to grow. But Howard Chernick, an economics professor at Hunter College and co-author of the report that forecast an up to 43% decline in SF’s property values, paints a much worse picture: His team sees a decline of up to 15% in property tax collections amounting to a&nbsp;roughly 4% drop in total revenues.

The city’s budget office expects property tax revenues to continue to grow. But Howard Chernick, an economics professor at Hunter College and co-author of the report that forecast an up to 43% decline in SF’s property values, paints a much worse picture: His team sees a decline of up to 15% in property tax collections amounting to a&nbsp;roughly 4% drop in total revenues.

Based on the most recent numbers, that would mean a decline of roughly $240 million annually. And because tax revenues on average increased steadily each year since the Great Recession, any drop could be painful for a city that banks on growth to pay for an array of services and a workforce of roughly 35,000.&nbsp;

Based on the most recent numbers, that would mean a decline of roughly $240 million annually. And because tax revenues on average increased steadily each year since the Great Recession, any drop could be painful for a city that banks on growth to pay for an array of services and a workforce of roughly 35,000.&nbsp;

Local legislators are only beginning to get their arms around the problem. Supervisor Catherine Stefani <a href="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Letter-of-Inquiry-on-commercial-real-estate-1.pdf">sent a letter of inquiry</a> asking budget officials to quantify declining demand for commercial space, while Supervisor Ahsha Safai plans to hold a hearing to brainstorm ways to bring workers back downtown.&nbsp;

Local legislators are only beginning to get their arms around the problem. Supervisor Catherine Stefani <a href="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Letter-of-Inquiry-on-commercial-real-estate-1.pdf">sent a letter of inquiry</a> asking budget officials to quantify declining demand for commercial space, while Supervisor Ahsha Safai plans to hold a hearing to brainstorm ways to bring workers back downtown.&nbsp;

“Do we need to have an honest conversation about the current tax structure?” said Safai. “We need to be putting everything on the table.”&nbsp;

“Do we need to have an honest conversation about the current tax structure?” said Safai. “We need to be putting everything on the table.”&nbsp;

Business and community groups are urging the city to take more action, arguing that policymakers must <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/4-takeaways-from-the-new-plan-to-rescue-san-franciscos-downtown/">drastically remake downtown</a> into a hub for arts, music and culture with outdoor spaces for visitors and commuters to gather outside of offices.&nbsp;

Business and community groups are urging the city to take more action, arguing that policymakers must <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/4-takeaways-from-the-new-plan-to-rescue-san-franciscos-downtown/">drastically remake downtown</a> into a hub for arts, music and culture with outdoor spaces for visitors and commuters to gather outside of offices.&nbsp;

But most of those ideas are firmly in the realm of the hypothetical, and it’s unclear what may happen when they collide with the city’s bureaucracy: For example, a $6 million budget allocation for the downtown-focused Economic Core Recovery Program was <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/restaurants-bars-downtown-economic-recovery-budget-funding-events/">subject to intense scrutiny</a> by the Board of Supervisors before its approval.&nbsp;&nbsp;

But most of those ideas are firmly in the realm of the hypothetical, and it’s unclear what may happen when they collide with the city’s bureaucracy: For example, a $6 million budget allocation for the downtown-focused Economic Core Recovery Program was <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/restaurants-bars-downtown-economic-recovery-budget-funding-events/">subject to intense scrutiny</a> by the Board of Supervisors before its approval.&nbsp;&nbsp;

When compared to the investment that cities like <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-200-million-funding-revitalize-downtown-areas-communities-across-new">New York</a> or <a href="https://www.chicagobusiness.com/government/chicagos-12-billion-recovery-plan-still-contains-some-unknowns">Chicago</a> are making to revitalize their downtowns, San Francisco’s effort barely registers.

When compared to the investment that cities like <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-200-million-funding-revitalize-downtown-areas-communities-across-new">New York</a> or <a href="https://www.chicagobusiness.com/government/chicagos-12-billion-recovery-plan-still-contains-some-unknowns">Chicago</a> are making to revitalize their downtowns, San Francisco’s effort barely registers.

The city has much to lose as federal funds that fortified its budget through the pandemic dry up. Some with a stake in downtown’s future are worried that time is running out.&nbsp;

The city has much to lose as federal funds that fortified its budget through the pandemic dry up. Some with a stake in downtown’s future are worried that time is running out.&nbsp;

“It&#8217;s within our power to stop or divert the train and meet it ahead of its collision point,” said SF Chamber of Commerce CEO Rodney Fong. “But that work has to start now, because the sooner you start it, the fewer days of discomfort you&#8217;re going to have.”

“It's within our power to stop or divert the train and meet it ahead of its collision point,” said SF Chamber of Commerce CEO Rodney Fong. “But that work has to start now, because the sooner you start it, the fewer days of discomfort you're going to have.”

“It&#8217;s within our power to stop or divert the train and meet it ahead of its collision point,” said SF Chamber of Commerce CEO Rodney Fong. “But that work has to start now, because the sooner you start it, the fewer days of discomfort you&#8217;re going to have.”

Editor&#8217;s Note: This story has been updated to reflect&nbsp;ownership changes in the properties at 25 Taylor St. and 1182 Market St.&nbsp;

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect&nbsp;ownership changes in the properties at 25 Taylor St. and 1182 Market St.&nbsp;

Editor&#8217;s Note: This story has been updated to reflect&nbsp;ownership changes in the properties at 25 Taylor St. and 1182 Market St.&nbsp;

San Francisco braces for epic commercial real estate crash

A few dozen repeat offenders appear to be driving retail crime in San Francisco, according to the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD).&nbsp;

A few dozen repeat offenders appear to be driving retail crime in San Francisco, according to the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD).&nbsp;

In a letter to Supervisor Ahsha Safai, who had requested information on retail crime, San Francisco Chief of Police Bill Scott said that the department keeps a record of repeat shoplifting offenders. SFPD identified 116 repeat offenders in 2020, of which 38 (33%) were rearrested by the department.&nbsp;

In a letter to Supervisor Ahsha Safai, who had requested information on retail crime, San Francisco Chief of Police Bill Scott said that the department keeps a record of repeat shoplifting offenders. SFPD identified 116 repeat offenders in 2020, of which 38 (33%) were rearrested by the department.&nbsp;

That was a sharp drop compared to 2019, when SFPD identified 219 repeat offenders and rearrested 63 (29%). In 2019, there were 238 repeat offenders and 48 (20%) rearrested, according to SFPD.&nbsp;

That was a sharp drop compared to 2019, when SFPD identified 219 repeat offenders and rearrested 63 (29%). In 2019, there were 238 repeat offenders and 48 (20%) rearrested, according to SFPD.&nbsp;

The department did not expand on specific reasons for the drop in repeat offenders, though the department’s own <a href="https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crime-dashboard">statistics</a> show a reshuffling of crime trends overall during the pandemic, when as many as half of the city’s <a href="https://www.publiccommentsf.com/post/nearly-half-of-s-f-small-businesses-remain-closed-office-visits-lag-report">storefronts closed</a> and residents stayed home.&nbsp;

The department did not expand on specific reasons for the drop in repeat offenders, though the department’s own <a href="https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crime-dashboard">statistics</a> show a reshuffling of crime trends overall during the pandemic, when as many as half of the city’s <a href="https://www.publiccommentsf.com/post/nearly-half-of-s-f-small-businesses-remain-closed-office-visits-lag-report">storefronts closed</a> and residents stayed home.&nbsp;

&#8220;The data might say that cases aren&#8217;t substantially on the increase, but the brazen nature of them are,&#8221; said Safai at a Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday. &#8220;There is no statistic for brazenness.&#8221;

"The data might say that cases aren't substantially on the increase, but the brazen nature of them are," said Safai at a Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday. "There is no statistic for brazenness."

&#8220;The data might say that cases aren&#8217;t substantially on the increase, but the brazen nature of them are,&#8221; said Safai at a Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday. &#8220;There is no statistic for brazenness.&#8221;

In a separate letter, San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin wrote that it is difficult to precisely track organized crime prosecutions because the charges can range from petty theft and criminal profiteering to looting. California’s penal code also includes a special category for organized retail theft, which expired July 1 but was extended this week.&nbsp;&nbsp;

In a separate letter, San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin wrote that it is difficult to precisely track organized crime prosecutions because the charges can range from petty theft and criminal profiteering to looting. California’s penal code also includes a special category for organized retail theft, which expired July 1 but was extended this week.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Of the 26 organized retail theft arrests presented to the District Attorney this year, the office filed criminal charges in 21 cases. Four were discharged, and one was referred to another agency.&nbsp;

Of the 26 organized retail theft arrests presented to the District Attorney this year, the office filed criminal charges in 21 cases. Four were discharged, and one was referred to another agency.&nbsp;

At a Wednesday press conference, Governor Gavin Newsom addressed retail crime and gun violence in the state and signed a bill, <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220AB331">AB 331</a>, that extended the organized retail crime classification in California’s penal code. Organized retail theft is defined under the law as theft in which an individual acts in concert with others to resell or return stolen items for value.&nbsp;

At a Wednesday press conference, Governor Gavin Newsom addressed retail crime and gun violence in the state and signed a bill, <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220AB331">AB 331</a>, that extended the organized retail crime classification in California’s penal code. Organized retail theft is defined under the law as theft in which an individual acts in concert with others to resell or return stolen items for value.&nbsp;

The bill also directs the California Highway Patrol to assist local law enforcement agencies in counties defined as having “elevated levels of property crime.”&nbsp;

The bill also directs the California Highway Patrol to assist local law enforcement agencies in counties defined as having “elevated levels of property crime.”&nbsp;

“The state of California has no police department; it has the California Highway Patrol,” said Newsom. “That doesn’t negate our responsibility and our role to work with local law enforcement, to work with local District Attorneys, to work with our local elected officials&#8230;that is exactly what this legislation will afford us the right to do.”

“The state of California has no police department; it has the California Highway Patrol,” said Newsom. “That doesn’t negate our responsibility and our role to work with local law enforcement, to work with local District Attorneys, to work with our local elected officials...that is exactly what this legislation will afford us the right to do.”

“The state of California has no police department; it has the California Highway Patrol,” said Newsom. “That doesn’t negate our responsibility and our role to work with local law enforcement, to work with local District Attorneys, to work with our local elected officials&#8230;that is exactly what this legislation will afford us the right to do.”

SFPD Chief Bill Scott spoke briefly at the press conference, describing organized retail theft as “a challenge” and alluding to recent viral videos showing brazen crimes. Last month, a video of a shoplifter bicycling a bag full of items out of a San Francisco Walgreens store landed on the national news.&nbsp;

SFPD Chief Bill Scott spoke briefly at the press conference, describing organized retail theft as “a challenge” and alluding to recent viral videos showing brazen crimes. Last month, a video of a shoplifter bicycling a bag full of items out of a San Francisco Walgreens store landed on the national news.&nbsp;

“With the leadership of the State Assembly&#8230;and our Governor, I think we’ll have more success,” said Scott. “It’s a challenge, I’ll be honest with you, but it’s not insurmountable.”&nbsp;

“With the leadership of the State Assembly...and our Governor, I think we’ll have more success,” said Scott. “It’s a challenge, I’ll be honest with you, but it’s not insurmountable.”&nbsp;

“With the leadership of the State Assembly&#8230;and our Governor, I think we’ll have more success,” said Scott. “It’s a challenge, I’ll be honest with you, but it’s not insurmountable.”&nbsp;

At a May hearing, representatives from Walgreens and CVS told members of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors that their San Francisco stores see far higher levels of theft than surrounding cities. Those stores also report more threats against workers, despite elevated spending on security.&nbsp;

At a May hearing, representatives from Walgreens and CVS told members of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors that their San Francisco stores see far higher levels of theft than surrounding cities. Those stores also report more threats against workers, despite elevated spending on security.&nbsp;

“Somebody is going to seriously get hurt, whether it’s an employee or a customer at Walgreens or Target,” said Rafael Gutierrez, a former Target security guard, <a href="https://sfstandard.com/target-security-guard-speaks-out-san-francisco-retail-crime/">in an interview</a> with Here/Say.&nbsp;

“Somebody is going to seriously get hurt, whether it’s an employee or a customer at Walgreens or Target,” said Rafael Gutierrez, a former Target security guard, <a href="https://sfstandard.com/target-security-guard-speaks-out-san-francisco-retail-crime/">in an interview</a> with Here/Say.&nbsp;

In October 2020, a joint effort by the California Highway Patrol, San Francisco Police, San Francisco District Attorney and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service resulted in a multimillion-dollar retail crime bust.&nbsp;

In October 2020, a joint effort by the California Highway Patrol, San Francisco Police, San Francisco District Attorney and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service resulted in a multimillion-dollar retail crime bust.&nbsp;

The effort, dubbed “<a href="https://losspreventionmedia.com/story-behind-a-50-million-organized-retail-crime-case/">Operation Proof of Purchase,”</a> recovered more than $8 million in stolen razor blades, over-the-counter medications, cosmetics and other items that were resold on Amazon, eBay, Craigslist and elsewhere through a shell company.&nbsp;

The effort, dubbed “<a href="https://losspreventionmedia.com/story-behind-a-50-million-organized-retail-crime-case/">Operation Proof of Purchase,”</a> recovered more than $8 million in stolen razor blades, over-the-counter medications, cosmetics and other items that were resold on Amazon, eBay, Craigslist and elsewhere through a shell company.&nbsp;

Repeat shoplifters are driving SF retail crime, according to police

The Standard Staff

Check out the following link for the latest entries in <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/midterm-election-san-francisco-supervisors-ballot-measures/">The Standard’s Election Day Live Blog</a>. See below for entries from earlier in the day.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Check out the following link for the latest entries in <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/midterm-election-san-francisco-supervisors-ballot-measures/">The Standard’s Election Day Live Blog</a>. See below for entries from earlier in the day. </h2>

4:57 p.m. | No Long Lines at City Polling Places

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">4:57 p.m. | No Long Lines at City Polling Places </h3>

If you&#8217;re following election coverage from other states, you&#8217;ve probably seen reports of long lines and lengthy wait times to vote. That&#8217;s not the case in San Francisco. A quick look at the&nbsp;<a href="https://sfelections.org/tools/map_poll_time/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">SF Elections map</a>&nbsp;helps explain why.

If you're following election coverage from other states, you've probably seen reports of long lines and lengthy wait times to vote. That's not the case in San Francisco. A quick look at the&nbsp;<a href="https://sfelections.org/tools/map_poll_time/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">SF Elections map</a>&nbsp;helps explain why.

If you&#8217;re following election coverage from other states, you&#8217;ve probably seen reports of long lines and lengthy wait times to vote. That&#8217;s not the case in San Francisco. A quick look at the&nbsp;<a href="https://sfelections.org/tools/map_poll_time/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">SF Elections map</a>&nbsp;helps explain why.

Sideshows, ‘stunt driving’ are costing the city, say supervisors

San Francisco braces for epic commercial real estate crash

Repeat shoplifters are driving SF retail crime, according to police

Live blog: SF firefighters and private citizens open their garages for democracy

Tenderloin crackdown: Supervisors likely to approve state of emergency amid arguments over policing

Search Results for: ahsha safaí

Sideshows, ‘stunt driving’ are costing the city, say supervisors

San Francisco braces for epic commercial real estate crash

Repeat shoplifters are driving SF retail crime, according to police

Live blog: SF firefighters and private citizens open their garages for democracy

Tenderloin crackdown: Supervisors likely to approve state of emergency amid arguments over policing