Kevin Truong

Imagine a slow-moving train coming towards you. The lights are shining, the horn is blaring, but it’s just far enough in the distance that the risk doesn’t seem real just yet.&nbsp;

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<p>Imagine a slow-moving train coming towards you. The lights are shining, the horn is blaring, but it’s just far enough in the distance that the risk doesn’t seem real just yet.&nbsp;</p>

That’s a fitting-enough analogy for the state of San Francisco&#8217;s commercial real estate market, which is tilting towards a collapse in property values, leaving the city, its budget and its ability to provide services tied to the tracks.&nbsp;

<p>That’s a fitting-enough analogy for the state of San Francisco's commercial real estate market, which is tilting towards a collapse in property values, leaving the city, its budget and its ability to provide services tied to the tracks.&nbsp;</p>

<p>That’s a fitting-enough analogy for the state of San Francisco&#8217;s commercial real estate market, which is tilting towards a collapse in property values, leaving the city, its budget and its ability to provide services tied to the tracks.&nbsp;</p>

The root of this—of course—is the pandemic and the way that it has completely transformed work patterns in the city, hollowing out a downtown core that once accounted for most of San Francisco’s GDP, 70% of its sales tax revenue and 40% of the city’s jobs. And there’s an uneasy feeling among a coalition of business groups that city leaders are sleepwalking into an economic calamity with far-reaching consequences.

<p>The root of this—of course—is the pandemic and the way that it has completely transformed work patterns in the city, hollowing out a downtown core that once accounted for most of San Francisco’s GDP, 70% of its sales tax revenue and 40% of the city’s jobs. And there’s an uneasy feeling among a coalition of business groups that city leaders are sleepwalking into an economic calamity with far-reaching consequences. </p>

Signal lights of the city’s tenuous fiscal future are starting to flash. Major tech employers like Yelp and Airbnb have <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/san-francisco-tax-code-encourages-work-from-home/">fled</a> or gone fully remote, leading to mass office vacancies. A swath <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2022/08/26/san-francisco-assessment-appeals-board.html">of commercial landlords</a> are seeking massive reductions in their assessed property values—and associated tax bills. And a recent report from the Urban Displacement Project <a href="https://www.downtownrecovery.com/dashboards/recovery_ranking.html">ranked the city’s downtown recovery</a> as dead last among more than 60 cities across North America.&nbsp;

<p>Signal lights of the city’s tenuous fiscal future are starting to flash. Major tech employers like Yelp and Airbnb have <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/san-francisco-tax-code-encourages-work-from-home/">fled</a> or gone fully remote, leading to mass office vacancies. A swath <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2022/08/26/san-francisco-assessment-appeals-board.html">of commercial landlords</a> are seeking massive reductions in their assessed property values—and associated tax bills. And a recent report from the Urban Displacement Project <a href="https://www.downtownrecovery.com/dashboards/recovery_ranking.html">ranked the city’s downtown recovery</a> as dead last among more than 60 cities across North America.&nbsp;</p>

<strong>‘Uncharted Territory’</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>‘Uncharted Territory’</strong></h2>


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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>‘Uncharted Territory’</strong></h2>

It’s no secret that office vacancies are high in SF’s downtown. But even as the pandemic wanes, an already-troubling outlook for downtown could only get worse.&nbsp;

<p>It’s no secret that office vacancies are high in SF’s downtown. But even as the pandemic wanes, an already-troubling outlook for downtown could only get worse.&nbsp;</p>

That’s because a slew of office leases signed at the height of the city’s economic boom are poised to expire over the next few years, further inflating vacancies and diminishing what the office towers that draw the city’s skyline are worth. There’s currently more than 25 million square feet of commercial space available for lease or sublease in the city, the equivalent of about 35 Transamerica Pyramids sitting empty.&nbsp;

<p>That’s because a slew of office leases signed at the height of the city’s economic boom are poised to expire over the next few years, further inflating vacancies and diminishing what the office towers that draw the city’s skyline are worth. There’s currently more than 25 million square feet of commercial space available for lease or sublease in the city, the equivalent of about 35 Transamerica Pyramids sitting empty.&nbsp;</p>

Empty desks in the SD Mayer Accounting firm office in San Francisco, Calif., on Friday, July 29, 2022. | Juliana Yamada/The Standard


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/CommercialPropertyTax-INLINE2.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-73298"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Empty desks in the SD Mayer Accounting firm office on July 29, 2022. | Juliana Yamada/The Standard</figcaption></figure>


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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/CommercialPropertyTax-INLINE2.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-73298"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Empty desks in the SD Mayer Accounting firm office on July 29, 2022. | Juliana Yamada/The Standard</figcaption></figure>

“We’re way above anything that was happening in the Great Recession and dot-com era days,” said Jay Shaffer, a co-founder and principal at Colton Commercial &amp; Partners. “We have this shadow market of sublease availability in seemingly uncharted territories. And sublease inventory is still rising.”&nbsp;

<p>“We’re way above anything that was happening in the Great Recession and dot-com era days,” said Jay Shaffer, a co-founder and principal at Colton Commercial &amp; Partners. “We have this shadow market of sublease availability in seemingly uncharted territories. And sublease inventory is still rising.”&nbsp;</p>

Citing data from real estate firm JLL, SF’s chief economist Ted Egan <a href="https://sfcontroller.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Economic%20Analysis/economic_context_for_development.pdf">tagged future vacancies</a>, in a worst case scenario, as high as 53% in the Jackson Square area and 43% in the mid-Market area in 2024 as the clock runs out on office leases.

<p>Citing data from real estate firm JLL, SF’s chief economist Ted Egan <a href="https://sfcontroller.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Economic%20Analysis/economic_context_for_development.pdf">tagged future vacancies</a>, in a worst case scenario, as high as 53% in the Jackson Square area and 43% in the mid-Market area in 2024 as the clock runs out on office leases.</p>

The current vacancy epidemic cuts across buildings of all sizes and price ranges in San Francisco’s downtown core, from the struggling mid-Market area to the sparkling office towers of the East Cut.&nbsp;

<p>The current vacancy epidemic cuts across buildings of all sizes and price ranges in San Francisco’s downtown core, from the struggling mid-Market area to the sparkling office towers of the East Cut.&nbsp;</p>

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For example, 415 Natoma, a 653,900 sq foot office tower owned by Brookfield Properties that was the sole ground-up office project to deliver in San Francisco in 2021, currently has just one announced lease: 20,000 square feet taken by “remote-first” startup Thumbtack. Nearby office towers 123 Mission (Juul Labs, Inc.), 50 Fremont (Salesforce.com, Inc.) and 199 Fremont (CalSTRS) were each at least 30% vacant, according to CoStar data, along with a constellation of other big office buildings.&nbsp;&nbsp;

<p>For example, 415 Natoma, a 653,900 sq foot office tower owned by Brookfield Properties that was the sole ground-up office project to deliver in San Francisco in 2021, currently has just one announced lease: 20,000 square feet taken by “remote-first” startup Thumbtack. Nearby office towers 123 Mission (Juul Labs, Inc.), 50 Fremont (Salesforce.com, Inc.) and 199 Fremont (CalSTRS) were each at least 30% vacant, according to CoStar data, along with a constellation of other big office buildings.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

A few large buildings, like 550 California St. and 455 Market St, were <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/real-estate-san-francisco-17414133.php">placed on the market</a> in recent months at deep discounts to what they would have fetched before the pandemic, but were eventually pulled when offers came in that were even lower than those already-discounted prices.

<p>A few large buildings, like 550 California St. and 455 Market St, were <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/real-estate-san-francisco-17414133.php">placed on the market</a> in recent months at deep discounts to what they would have fetched before the pandemic, but were eventually pulled when offers came in that were even lower than those already-discounted prices.  </p>

In the case of 550 California St., a downtown office tower owned by Wells Fargo, bids came in at 60% to 70% under what the building would have sold for in 2019, real estate brokers said.&nbsp;

<p>In the case of 550 California St., a downtown office tower owned by Wells Fargo, bids came in at 60% to 70% under what the building would have sold for in 2019, real estate brokers said.&nbsp;</p>


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/image-6.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-190264"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Screenshot</figcaption></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Zombie Buildings&nbsp;</strong></h2>


The risk of a San Francisco real estate collapse is palpable enough that it’s caught the attention of at least one Wall Street hedge fund—and not in a good way.&nbsp;

<p>The risk of a San Francisco real estate collapse is palpable enough that it’s caught the attention of at least one Wall Street hedge fund—and not in a good way.&nbsp;</p>

Dan McNamara, founder of New York hedge fund Polpo Capital, became known for the lucrative short bets he made against regional malls run into the ground by e-commerce and Amazon.&nbsp;

<p>Dan McNamara, founder of New York hedge fund Polpo Capital, became known for the lucrative short bets he made against regional malls run into the ground by e-commerce and Amazon.&nbsp;</p>

Now, McNamara is eyeing the commercial office market for another short bet, and San Francisco is near the top of his list. McNamara started his firm last year to take advantage of what he considers to be mispricings in the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market.

<p>Now, McNamara is eyeing the commercial office market for another short bet, and San Francisco is near the top of his list. McNamara started his firm last year to take advantage of what he considers to be mispricings in the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market.</p>

“We thought there was a unique opportunity to take advantage of the impending distress within the commercial real estate market,” McNamara said. “San Francisco has been an amazing example of this; we’ve had all these tech companies that have been driving office space usage for the past 20 years. But we believe that’s changed forever.”

<p>“We thought there was a unique opportunity to take advantage of the impending distress within the commercial real estate market,” McNamara said. “San Francisco has been an amazing example of this; we’ve had all these tech companies that have been driving office space usage for the past 20 years. But we believe that’s changed forever.”</p>

A<a href="https://itep.sfo2.digitaloceanspaces.com/20211101_PropertyTaxReport.pdf"> report published in November</a> by the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) calculated that San Francisco could see a short-term decline in commercial property values of up to 43%, the highest projected in the study.

<p>A<a href="https://itep.sfo2.digitaloceanspaces.com/20211101_PropertyTaxReport.pdf"> report published in November</a> by the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) calculated that San Francisco could see a short-term decline in commercial property values of up to 43%, the highest projected in the study.</p>

The logic is obvious: San Francisco’s software-dominant economy pivoted easily away from offices during the pandemic, and has <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/san-francisco-tax-code-encourages-work-from-home/">little incentive to return.&nbsp;</a>

<p>The logic is obvious: San Francisco’s software-dominant economy pivoted easily away from offices during the pandemic, and has <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/san-francisco-tax-code-encourages-work-from-home/">little incentive to return.&nbsp;</a></p>

In some ways, the city is a victim of its own success by creating an economic model so heavily dependent on tech in the aftermath of the Great Recession, said Wade Rose, president of the business advocacy group Advance SF.

<p>In some ways, the city is a victim of its own success by creating an economic model so heavily dependent on tech in the aftermath of the Great Recession, said Wade Rose, president of the business advocacy group Advance SF.</p>

“We initiated the growth of an economic sector that could pivot on a dime,” Rose said. “So they closed down fast and exposed this vulnerability.”

<p>“We initiated the growth of an economic sector that could pivot on a dime,” Rose said. “So they closed down fast and exposed this vulnerability.”</p>

Lenders have taken a dim view of the office market and that’s doubly true for slow-to-recover San Francisco, leaving fewer options for refinancing.&nbsp;

<p>Lenders have taken a dim view of the office market and that’s doubly true for slow-to-recover San Francisco, leaving fewer options for refinancing.&nbsp;</p>

“It&#8217;s frozen,” McNamara said of current market conditions. “I do believe San Francisco is the most challenging office market today partly due to the fact they became oversupplied very quickly when the model changed to hybrid.”

<p>“It's frozen,” McNamara said of current market conditions. “I do believe San Francisco is the most challenging office market today partly due to the fact they became oversupplied very quickly when the model changed to hybrid.”</p>

<p>“It&#8217;s frozen,” McNamara said of current market conditions. “I do believe San Francisco is the most challenging office market today partly due to the fact they became oversupplied very quickly when the model changed to hybrid.”</p>

The properties most at risk are mid- to lower-tier buildings purchased near the peak of the market. Commercial real estate insiders say that those property owners are negotiating with lenders to avoid foreclosure, but that it may be sooner rather than later before the dam starts to break.

<p>The properties most at risk are mid- to lower-tier buildings purchased near the peak of the market. Commercial real estate insiders say that those property owners are negotiating with lenders to avoid foreclosure, but that it may be sooner rather than later before the dam starts to break.</p>

McNamara sees refinancing issues leading to defaults, delinquencies and a class of unoccupied “zombie-type buildings.” That may be already starting to happen.

<p>McNamara sees refinancing issues leading to defaults, delinquencies and a class of unoccupied “zombie-type buildings.” That may be already starting to happen. </p>

Of the some 200 large properties identified by CoStar as “high vacancy,” at least three have defaulted on their 2021 property tax bills, according to a city tax database. Those include a property at 25 Taylor St. formerly occupied by the coworking firm WeWork, and a 1182 Market St. property formerly owned by the local real estate giant Shorenstein Properties.

<p>Of the some 200 large properties identified by CoStar as “high vacancy,” at least three have defaulted on their 2021 property tax bills, according to a city tax database. Those include a property at 25 Taylor St. formerly occupied by the coworking firm WeWork, and a 1182 Market St. property formerly owned by the local real estate giant Shorenstein Properties. </p>

Other building owners are asking the city to cut their tax bills on the grounds that their buildings have lost much of their value—as much as half, in some cases.&nbsp;&nbsp;

<p>Other building owners are asking the city to cut their tax bills on the grounds that their buildings have lost much of their value—as much as half, in some cases.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

It’s not unusual for landlords to ask for revisions to their tax bills in an economic downturn. But the pandemic’s impact on real estate was dramatic enough that the city’s assessor-recorder, Joaquin Torres, took the step of surveying property owners and calculating a temporary property value reduction of $2.89 billion, out of $328.5 billion in total assessed value, in the last fiscal year. He said it’s too soon to know what the longer-term impact will be.

<p>It’s not unusual for landlords to ask for revisions to their tax bills in an economic downturn. But the pandemic’s impact on real estate was dramatic enough that the city’s assessor-recorder, Joaquin Torres, took the step of surveying property owners and calculating a temporary property value reduction of $2.89 billion, out of $328.5 billion in total assessed value, in the last fiscal year. He said it’s too soon to know what the longer-term impact will be.</p>

“We just don’t know yet,” Torres said. “It&#8217;s a wait-and-see approach right now as we continue to defend the values that we have.”

<p>“We just don’t know yet,” Torres said. “It's a wait-and-see approach right now as we continue to defend the values that we have.”</p>

<p>“We just don’t know yet,” Torres said. “It&#8217;s a wait-and-see approach right now as we continue to defend the values that we have.”</p>

<strong>The Prop. 13 Effect&nbsp;</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Prop. 13 Effect&nbsp;</strong></h2>


The pandemic has already eroded the city’s business and sales taxes, both of which are reliant on downtown commuters. A hit to the city’s biggest source of tax revenue—property taxes—could be even more devastating.&nbsp;

<p>The pandemic has already eroded the city’s business and sales taxes, both of which are reliant on downtown commuters. A hit to the city’s biggest source of tax revenue—property taxes—could be even more devastating.&nbsp;</p>

Because of Prop. 13, San Francisco has some protection from a sudden collapse in property tax revenue. That 1978 law, which limited when properties can be reassessed for tax purposes to the point of sale and restricted annual appreciation to 2%, has the effect of stabilizing property tax rolls in a downturn.&nbsp;

<p>Because of Prop. 13, San Francisco has some protection from a sudden collapse in property tax revenue. That 1978 law, which limited when properties can be reassessed for tax purposes to the point of sale and restricted annual appreciation to 2%, has the effect of stabilizing property tax rolls in a downturn.&nbsp;</p>

Older buildings—even ones worth tens of millions at market prices—can pay taxes based on decades-old valuations. By contrast, newer towers spun up or sold during the last decade’s development frenzy contribute staggering sums to the city’s rolls, helping to drive property tax revenue in the city’s general fund north of $2.3 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year.&nbsp;

<p>Older buildings—even ones worth tens of millions at market prices—can pay taxes based on decades-old valuations. By contrast, newer towers spun up or sold during the last decade’s development frenzy contribute staggering sums to the city’s rolls, helping to drive property tax revenue in the city’s general fund north of $2.3 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year.&nbsp;</p>

But no one seems to have clear answers on what the pandemic will do to that cash cow. And the city’s own forecasts are looking increasingly out of step with reality as tech’s remote-dominant office culture metastasizes into a state of permanence.&nbsp;&nbsp;

<p>But no one seems to have clear answers on what the pandemic will do to that cash cow. And the city’s own forecasts are looking increasingly out of step with reality as tech’s remote-dominant office culture metastasizes into a state of permanence.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

The city’s most recent budget forecasts estimate that office workers will <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/remote-work-san-francisco-downtown/">telecommute 33% of the time</a> when an in-person return to the office stabilizes.​​​​ That number seems strikingly optimistic compared to data from key card company Kastle Systems indicating that SF’s downtown offices are only about 30% full.&nbsp;

<p>The city’s most recent budget forecasts estimate that office workers will <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/remote-work-san-francisco-downtown/">telecommute 33% of the time</a> when an in-person return to the office stabilizes.​​​​ That number seems strikingly optimistic compared to data from key card company Kastle Systems indicating that SF’s downtown offices are only about 30% full.&nbsp;</p>

Rose suggested that the infusion of federal stimulus funds during the pandemic may have lulled city leaders into a false sense of financial security.

<p>Rose suggested that the infusion of federal stimulus funds during the pandemic may have lulled city leaders into a false sense of financial security.</p>

“The city didn’t have to fire anybody and there wasn’t so much immediate pain felt,” Rose said. “There’s a propensity to say, don’t make it worse than it is.”

<p>“The city didn’t have to fire anybody and there wasn’t so much immediate pain felt,” Rose said. “There’s a propensity to say, don’t make it worse than it is.”</p>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-heads-in-the-sand"><strong>Heads in the Sand</strong></h2>


Rose<strong> </strong>sees an inflection point when leases expire, buildings are revalued, budgets are slashed and the problem can no longer be ignored.&nbsp;

<p>Rose<strong> </strong>sees an inflection point when leases expire, buildings are revalued, budgets are slashed and the problem can no longer be ignored.&nbsp;</p>

The city’s budget office expects property tax revenues to continue to grow. But Howard Chernick, an economics professor at Hunter College and co-author of the report that forecast an up to 43% decline in SF’s property values, paints a much worse picture: His team sees a decline of up to 15% in property tax collections amounting to a&nbsp;roughly 4% drop in total revenues.

<p>The city’s budget office expects property tax revenues to continue to grow. But Howard Chernick, an economics professor at Hunter College and co-author of the report that forecast an up to 43% decline in SF’s property values, paints a much worse picture: His team sees a decline of up to 15% in property tax collections amounting to a&nbsp;roughly 4% drop in total revenues.</p>

Based on the most recent numbers, that would mean a decline of roughly $240 million annually. And because tax revenues on average increased steadily each year since the Great Recession, any drop could be painful for a city that banks on growth to pay for an array of services and a workforce of roughly 35,000.&nbsp;

<p>Based on the most recent numbers, that would mean a decline of roughly $240 million annually. And because tax revenues on average increased steadily each year since the Great Recession, any drop could be painful for a city that banks on growth to pay for an array of services and a workforce of roughly 35,000.&nbsp;</p>

Local legislators are only beginning to get their arms around the problem. Supervisor Catherine Stefani <a href="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Letter-of-Inquiry-on-commercial-real-estate-1.pdf">sent a letter of inquiry</a> asking budget officials to quantify declining demand for commercial space, while Supervisor Ahsha Safai plans to hold a hearing to brainstorm ways to bring workers back downtown.&nbsp;

<p>Local legislators are only beginning to get their arms around the problem. Supervisor Catherine Stefani <a href="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Letter-of-Inquiry-on-commercial-real-estate-1.pdf">sent a letter of inquiry</a> asking budget officials to quantify declining demand for commercial space, while Supervisor Ahsha Safai plans to hold a hearing to brainstorm ways to bring workers back downtown.&nbsp;</p>

“Do we need to have an honest conversation about the current tax structure?” said Safai. “We need to be putting everything on the table.”&nbsp;

<p>“Do we need to have an honest conversation about the current tax structure?” said Safai. “We need to be putting everything on the table.”&nbsp;</p>

Business and community groups are urging the city to take more action, arguing that policymakers must <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/4-takeaways-from-the-new-plan-to-rescue-san-franciscos-downtown/">drastically remake downtown</a> into a hub for arts, music and culture with outdoor spaces for visitors and commuters to gather outside of offices.&nbsp;

<p>Business and community groups are urging the city to take more action, arguing that policymakers must <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/4-takeaways-from-the-new-plan-to-rescue-san-franciscos-downtown/">drastically remake downtown</a> into a hub for arts, music and culture with outdoor spaces for visitors and commuters to gather outside of offices.&nbsp;</p>

But most of those ideas are firmly in the realm of the hypothetical, and it’s unclear what may happen when they collide with the city’s bureaucracy: For example, a $6 million budget allocation for the downtown-focused Economic Core Recovery Program was <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/restaurants-bars-downtown-economic-recovery-budget-funding-events/">subject to intense scrutiny</a> by the Board of Supervisors before its approval.&nbsp;&nbsp;

<p>But most of those ideas are firmly in the realm of the hypothetical, and it’s unclear what may happen when they collide with the city’s bureaucracy: For example, a $6 million budget allocation for the downtown-focused Economic Core Recovery Program was <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/restaurants-bars-downtown-economic-recovery-budget-funding-events/">subject to intense scrutiny</a> by the Board of Supervisors before its approval.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

When compared to the investment that cities like <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-200-million-funding-revitalize-downtown-areas-communities-across-new">New York</a> or <a href="https://www.chicagobusiness.com/government/chicagos-12-billion-recovery-plan-still-contains-some-unknowns">Chicago</a> are making to revitalize their downtowns, San Francisco’s effort barely registers.

<p>When compared to the investment that cities like <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-200-million-funding-revitalize-downtown-areas-communities-across-new">New York</a> or <a href="https://www.chicagobusiness.com/government/chicagos-12-billion-recovery-plan-still-contains-some-unknowns">Chicago</a> are making to revitalize their downtowns, San Francisco’s effort barely registers.</p>

The city has much to lose as federal funds that fortified its budget through the pandemic dry up. Some with a stake in downtown’s future are worried that time is running out.&nbsp;

<p>The city has much to lose as federal funds that fortified its budget through the pandemic dry up. Some with a stake in downtown’s future are worried that time is running out.&nbsp;</p>

“It&#8217;s within our power to stop or divert the train and meet it ahead of its collision point,” said SF Chamber of Commerce CEO Rodney Fong. “But that work has to start now, because the sooner you start it, the fewer days of discomfort you&#8217;re going to have.”

<p>“It's within our power to stop or divert the train and meet it ahead of its collision point,” said SF Chamber of Commerce CEO Rodney Fong. “But that work has to start now, because the sooner you start it, the fewer days of discomfort you're going to have.”</p>

<p>“It&#8217;s within our power to stop or divert the train and meet it ahead of its collision point,” said SF Chamber of Commerce CEO Rodney Fong. “But that work has to start now, because the sooner you start it, the fewer days of discomfort you&#8217;re going to have.”</p>

<em>Editor&#8217;s Note: This story has been updated to reflect&nbsp;ownership changes in the properties at 25 Taylor St. and 1182 Market St.&nbsp;</em>

<p><em>Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect&nbsp;ownership changes in the properties at 25 Taylor St. and 1182 Market St.&nbsp;</em></p>

<p><em>Editor&#8217;s Note: This story has been updated to reflect&nbsp;ownership changes in the properties at 25 Taylor St. and 1182 Market St.&nbsp;</em></p>

San Francisco braces for epic commercial real estate crash

Josh Koehn

The kids apparently went to bed, because Garry Tan is back to war. It’s nearly midnight, and he’s been firing off tweets with the precision of a sawed-off shotgun. Hot takes and ragetweets may be the coin of the realm in Elon Musk’s new world order, but even by social media standards, Tan’s metabolism for vitriol and the breadth of his disdain for what ails San Francisco is staggering.

<p>The kids apparently went to bed, because Garry Tan is back to war. It’s nearly midnight, and he’s been firing off tweets with the precision of a sawed-off shotgun. Hot takes and ragetweets may be the coin of the realm in Elon Musk’s new world order, but even by social media standards, Tan’s metabolism for vitriol and the breadth of his disdain for what ails San Francisco is staggering.</p>

Over the course of two hours, the CEO of startup incubator Y Combinator personally attacks or retweets criticism of “extremist judges,” whom he accuses of emboldening criminals with the help of local media; any supervisor who dares to oppose bonuses to hire more cops; Nancy Pelosi and lawmakers concerned about the safety of autonomous vehicles; education activists who want to change math curriculum in public schools; venture capitalists who are “evil” to startup founders; “decels” who want to pump the brakes on technological progress; Apple’s monopoly on apps; YouTube censors; and last, but certainly not least, NIMBYs.

<p>Over the course of two hours, the CEO of startup incubator Y Combinator personally attacks or retweets criticism of “extremist judges,” whom he accuses of emboldening criminals with the help of local media; any supervisor who dares to oppose bonuses to hire more cops; Nancy Pelosi and lawmakers concerned about the safety of autonomous vehicles; education activists who want to change math curriculum in public schools; venture capitalists who are “evil” to startup founders; “decels” who want to pump the brakes on technological progress; Apple’s monopoly on apps; YouTube censors; and last, but certainly not least, NIMBYs.</p>

This behavior would be less remarkable if Tan, 42, weren’t a centimillionaire and one of the most influential people in tech. He boasts 362,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter) and a quarter-million subscribers to his YouTube channel. He has also poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into local elections since 2021.&nbsp;

<p>This behavior would be less remarkable if Tan, 42, weren’t a centimillionaire and one of the most influential people in tech. He boasts 362,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter) and a quarter-million subscribers to his YouTube channel. He has also poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into local elections since 2021.&nbsp;</p>

Tan’s critics have attempted to brand him as a toxic tech bro who lacks empathy and political chops, but he’s more than a malcontent with a big microphone. In just a few years, Tan, a registered Democrat, has fashioned himself into San Francisco’s preeminent political pitbull, an attack dog with a taste for progressives.

<p>Tan’s critics have attempted to brand him as a toxic tech bro who lacks empathy and political chops, but he’s more than a malcontent with a big microphone. In just a few years, Tan, a registered Democrat, has fashioned himself into San Francisco’s preeminent political pitbull, an attack dog with a taste for progressives.</p>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump pushed SF to the hard left and with it came the grift: ideological purity enforced by the most extreme viewpoints that must be adhered to with perfection</p>&mdash; Garry Tan (@garrytan) <a href="https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1704358928694546925?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 20, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“One thing that I’m starting to realize about myself is I always look for chaos,” Tan said in an interview this month at Y Combinator’s cavernous headquarters, a former power station in the city’s Dogpatch neighborhood. “Most people want certainty. They want to feel comfortable. And then the true founders, they want to find chaos, and they want to turn chaos into order.”

<p>“One thing that I’m starting to realize about myself is I always look for chaos,” Tan said in an interview this month at Y Combinator’s cavernous headquarters, a former power station in the city’s Dogpatch neighborhood. “Most people want certainty. They want to feel comfortable. And then the true founders, they want to find chaos, and they want to turn chaos into order.”</p>

Tan, who lives with his wife and two young sons in Noe Valley, also wants San Franciscans to join him in picking up their pitchforks come election time in November 2024. The city is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/18/san-francisco-ties-record-for-most-overdose-deaths-in-a-month/">on pace to smash its own record for drug overdose deaths</a>, more than 4,000 people are sleeping on the streets every night, and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/18/san-francisco-bay-area-crime-car-break-ins-burglaries-bipping-bip-city-bipped-bippin/">property crime</a> and quality-of-life issues have made San Francisco a national punchline. With businesses fleeing and vacant Downtown towers collecting dust, the city could be creeping toward a fiscal crisis.

San Francisco ties its own record for most drug overdose deaths in a month

Why is San Francisco called Bip City?

<p>Tan, who lives with his wife and two young sons in Noe Valley, also wants San Franciscans to join him in picking up their pitchforks come election time in November 2024. The city is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/18/san-francisco-ties-record-for-most-overdose-deaths-in-a-month/">on pace to smash its own record for drug overdose deaths</a>, more than 4,000 people are sleeping on the streets every night, and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/18/san-francisco-bay-area-crime-car-break-ins-burglaries-bipping-bip-city-bipped-bippin/">property crime</a> and quality-of-life issues have made San Francisco a national punchline. With businesses fleeing and vacant Downtown towers collecting dust, the city could be creeping toward a fiscal crisis.</p>

Regardless of whether people like or loathe Tan, both his supporters and detractors acknowledge that few people—perhaps only <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/06/20/london-breed-mayor-san-francisco-drugs-homelessness-crime-economy-election/">Mayor London Breed</a>—have greater influence at this moment over the city’s political discourse.

London Breed saved herself. Can she save San Francisco?

<p>Regardless of whether people like or loathe Tan, both his supporters and detractors acknowledge that few people—perhaps only <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/06/20/london-breed-mayor-san-francisco-drugs-homelessness-crime-economy-election/">Mayor London Breed</a>—have greater influence at this moment over the city’s political discourse.</p>

Mayor London Breed speaks at a press conference at City Hall concerning the city’s thousands of unapproved housing projects on June 29, 2023. | Jeremy Chen/The Standard


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img height="1667" width="2500" src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/BreedPressConf062923_09.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-177997"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mayor London Breed speaks at a press conference at City Hall in June concerning San Francisco&#8217;s many unapproved housing projects. | Jeremy Chen/The Standard</figcaption></figure>


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/BreedPressConf062923_09.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-177997"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mayor London Breed speaks at a press conference at City Hall in June concerning San Francisco's many unapproved housing projects. | Jeremy Chen/The Standard</figcaption></figure>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/BreedPressConf062923_09.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-177997"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mayor London Breed speaks at a press conference at City Hall in June concerning San Francisco&#8217;s many unapproved housing projects. | Jeremy Chen/The Standard</figcaption></figure>

“Where does this guy have his pull? It isn’t in banking votes in San Francisco politics. It’s in that broader, end-around messaging: the negative light that has been cast on the city,” said David Latterman, a longtime political analyst in San Francisco. “Locally, people might just roll their eyes. But you can’t deny that the national spotlight through these means—and it’s a negative spotlight—has been enough to get Breed to react. And so, in effect, it does work.”

<p>“Where does this guy have his pull? It isn’t in banking votes in San Francisco politics. It’s in that broader, end-around messaging: the negative light that has been cast on the city,” said David Latterman, a longtime political analyst in San Francisco. “Locally, people might just roll their eyes. But you can’t deny that the national spotlight through these means—and it’s a negative spotlight—has been enough to get Breed to react. And so, in effect, it does work.”</p>

In turn, online attacks against Tan are becoming increasingly aggressive, which may be why his list of accounts he’s blocked on X numbers in the tens of thousands.&nbsp;

<p>In turn, online attacks against Tan are becoming increasingly aggressive, which may be why his list of accounts he’s blocked on X numbers in the tens of thousands.&nbsp;</p>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I’ll have you know I block people by hand.</p>&mdash; Garry Tan (@garrytan) <a href="https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1516629421104320519?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 20, 2022</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

A website called <a href="https://techbrosf.weebly.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Techbro SF</a> has been trolling Tan and his political allies, circulating an image that shows Tan’s visage on a squid, suggesting his tentacles control political groups and the media—including, incorrectly, this publication. The graphic harkens back to a racist <a href="https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&amp;httpsredir=1&amp;article=1018&amp;context=cola_ug_research" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“Mongolian Octopus”</a> illustration circulated in the late 1800s to bolster arguments against Asian immigration. Tan’s attacks on progressive supervisors who are Jewish, such as Dean Preston and Hillary Ronen, have led to accusations of antisemitism. One progressive commenter called Tan a <a href="https://x.com/SFProgressives/status/1694411877315686837?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“lil Nazi snake.”</a> Tan responded by calling the posts smears and saying he is <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1696028338194993190?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“a big fan of Jewish people.”</a>

<p>A website called <a href="https://techbrosf.weebly.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Techbro SF</a> has been trolling Tan and his political allies, circulating an image that shows Tan’s visage on a squid, suggesting his tentacles control political groups and the media—including, incorrectly, this publication. The graphic harkens back to a racist <a href="https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&amp;httpsredir=1&amp;article=1018&amp;context=cola_ug_research" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“Mongolian Octopus”</a> illustration circulated in the late 1800s to bolster arguments against Asian immigration. Tan’s attacks on progressive supervisors who are Jewish, such as Dean Preston and Hillary Ronen, have led to accusations of antisemitism. One progressive commenter called Tan a <a href="https://x.com/SFProgressives/status/1694411877315686837?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“lil Nazi snake.”</a> Tan responded by calling the posts smears and saying he is <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1696028338194993190?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“a big fan of Jewish people.”</a></p>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The smears are truly absurd at this point<br><br>This is a lie about me and my videos. There is literally no basis for a tweet like this. <br><br>I am in fact a big fan of Jewish people <a href="https://t.co/3rI77eF3YT">pic.twitter.com/3rI77eF3YT</a></p>&mdash; Garry Tan (@garrytan) <a href="https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1696028338194993190?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 28, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The political maneuverings of wealthy power brokers in San Francisco have always been met with deep suspicion and pushback. Tan saw firsthand how progressives blamed people like his mentor Ron Conway, a billionaire venture capitalist, and the tech industry at large for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jul/01/san-francisco-big-tech-workers-industry" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">driving up the cost of rent and gentrifying neighborhoods</a>. Conway receded from the spotlight after <a href="https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/ron-conway-big-tech-drop-thousands-into-sleepy-sf-election/article_00342725-0356-5f79-a4c4-9e4a025a5d35.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">dramatically shaping city politics during Mayor Ed Lee’s administration</a>, but it appears there will be no such backing down with Tan.

<p>The political maneuverings of wealthy power brokers in San Francisco have always been met with deep suspicion and pushback. Tan saw firsthand how progressives blamed people like his mentor Ron Conway, a billionaire venture capitalist, and the tech industry at large for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jul/01/san-francisco-big-tech-workers-industry" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">driving up the cost of rent and gentrifying neighborhoods</a>. Conway receded from the spotlight after <a href="https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/ron-conway-big-tech-drop-thousands-into-sleepy-sf-election/article_00342725-0356-5f79-a4c4-9e4a025a5d35.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">dramatically shaping city politics during Mayor Ed Lee’s administration</a>, but it appears there will be no such backing down with Tan.</p>

“Every way they come after me,” he said, “I’m going to go after them 10x.”

<p>“Every way they come after me,” he said, “I’m going to go after them 10x.”</p>

<strong>‘Prototypical, Testosterone, Poisoned Tech Bro’</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-prototypical-testosterone-poisoned-tech-bro"><strong>‘Prototypical, Testosterone, Poisoned Tech Bro’</strong></h2>


Tan’s massive social media following—and real-world clout as leader of what some consider the top startup incubator in the world—gives every acerbic tweet about housing, the drug crisis and public safety a special weight among the city’s tech and political classes. Over the summer, he and Musk started <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1695215145218445323">replying to each other’s posts</a>, giving Tan an even larger reach thanks to the budding digital bromance.

<p>Tan’s massive social media following—and real-world clout as leader of what some consider the top startup incubator in the world—gives every acerbic tweet about housing, the drug crisis and public safety a special weight among the city’s tech and political classes. Over the summer, he and Musk started <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1695215145218445323">replying to each other’s posts</a>, giving Tan an even larger reach thanks to the budding digital bromance.</p>

Elon Musk (pictured) and Garry Tan tweeted support for a boycott of global law firm Latham & Watkins for providing legal support to a San Francisco nonprofit that’s suing the city over the rights of homeless people. (Photo by Chesnot/Getty Images)


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img height="1548" width="2500" src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GettyImages-1499013102.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-195654"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Elon Musk replied in support to a Garry Tan tweet calling for a boycott of Latham &amp; Watkins because the global law firm provided legal support to a San Francisco nonprofit that’s suing the city over homelessness issues.</figcaption></figure>


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GettyImages-1499013102.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-195654"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Elon Musk replied in support to a Garry Tan tweet calling for a boycott of Latham &amp; Watkins because the global law firm provided legal support to a San Francisco nonprofit that’s suing the city over homelessness issues.</figcaption></figure>

In direct broadsides on X, Tan has drop-kicked state Assemblymember Matt Haney for <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1685313515207405569?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“virtue signaling”</a> on the drug crisis, tagged Supervisors Connie Chan and Aaron Peskin as part of the <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1694003826997821843?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“corrupt political machine,”</a> suggested Ronen has the <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1697710431341781461?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">IQ of a borderline intellectually disabled person</a> and <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1690583104740876289?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">declared all-out war on Preston</a>, a Democratic Socialist. Tan has also called for abolishing citizen oversight groups like the Police Commission, a proposal political insiders have scoffed at as an example of naivete.

<p>In direct broadsides on X, Tan has drop-kicked state Assemblymember Matt Haney for <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1685313515207405569?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“virtue signaling”</a> on the drug crisis, tagged Supervisors Connie Chan and Aaron Peskin as part of the <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1694003826997821843?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“corrupt political machine,”</a> suggested Ronen has the <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1697710431341781461?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">IQ of a borderline intellectually disabled person</a> and <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1690583104740876289?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">declared all-out war on Preston</a>, a Democratic Socialist. Tan has also called for abolishing citizen oversight groups like the Police Commission, a proposal political insiders have scoffed at as an example of naivete.</p>

Peskin said he has never met Tan but sees him as a “prototypical, testosterone, poisoned tech bro.” The supervisor questioned Tan’s goals beyond “throwing bombs.”

<p>Peskin said he has never met Tan but sees him as a “prototypical, testosterone, poisoned tech bro.” The supervisor questioned Tan’s goals beyond “throwing bombs.”</p>

“He definitely donates money to campaigns,” Peskin said. “But he doesn’t seem to be a [political] player that is actually looking for solutions or sitting down and trying to have mature conversations about how to make the city a better place.”

<p>“He definitely donates money to campaigns,” Peskin said. “But he doesn’t seem to be a [political] player that is actually looking for solutions or sitting down and trying to have mature conversations about how to make the city a better place.”</p>

Tan has contributed more than $278,000 to political campaigns since early 2021, putting him in the top tier of individual spenders in San Francisco. While Tan has made it abundantly clear whom he doesn&#8217;t support, he’s more evasive about whom he plans to back in next year’s elections.

<p>Tan has contributed more than $278,000 to political campaigns since early 2021, putting him in the top tier of individual spenders in San Francisco. While Tan has made it abundantly clear whom he doesn't support, he’s more evasive about whom he plans to back in next year’s elections.</p>

<p>Tan has contributed more than $278,000 to political campaigns since early 2021, putting him in the top tier of individual spenders in San Francisco. While Tan has made it abundantly clear whom he doesn&#8217;t support, he’s more evasive about whom he plans to back in next year’s elections.</p>

Tech entrepreneur and CEO of Y Combinator Garry Tan smiles during an interview at his Y Combinator offices in the Dogpatch neighborhood of San Francisco on Sept. 14, 2023.


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img height="1663" width="2500" src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/INLINED08_GarryTan09262023.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-204988"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Tech entrepreneur and CEO of Y Combinator Garry Tan smiles during an interview at his Y Combinator offices in the Dogpatch neighborhood of San Francisco on Sept. 14.</figcaption></figure>


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/INLINED08_GarryTan09262023.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-204988"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Tech entrepreneur and CEO of Y Combinator Garry Tan smiles during an interview at his Y Combinator offices in the Dogpatch neighborhood of San Francisco on Sept. 14.</figcaption></figure>

This summer, Tan held a fundraiser for Breed at a condo he owns near Dolores Park in the Mission. Breed’s approval ratings have plummeted since the start of the pandemic, and the private event offered the beleaguered mayor a chance to rekindle support from her frustrated base.

<p>This summer, Tan held a fundraiser for Breed at a condo he owns near Dolores Park in the Mission. Breed’s approval ratings have plummeted since the start of the pandemic, and the private event offered the beleaguered mayor a chance to rekindle support from her frustrated base.</p>

Tan, who supported Breed’s appointments of <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/06/brooke-jenkins-promise-end-drug-dealing/">District Attorney Brooke Jenkins</a> and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2022/10/20/matt-dorsey-drug-crisis-addiction-police-san-francisco-supervisor/">Supervisor Matt Dorsey</a>, considers the mayor to be a “friend” and said the two text each other. But even after giving money to her campaign last year and throwing her a fundraiser, he won’t commit to officially backing Breed in the November 2024 election.

Has San Francisco DA Brooke Jenkins’ drug-dealing crackdown made a dent?

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<p>Tan, who supported Breed’s appointments of <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/06/brooke-jenkins-promise-end-drug-dealing/">District Attorney Brooke Jenkins</a> and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2022/10/20/matt-dorsey-drug-crisis-addiction-police-san-francisco-supervisor/">Supervisor Matt Dorsey</a>, considers the mayor to be a “friend” and said the two text each other. But even after giving money to her campaign last year and throwing her a fundraiser, he won’t commit to officially backing Breed in the November 2024 election.</p>

“No,” Tan said. “I’m a big fan, and honestly, we don’t even know who the field [of candidates] is yet. So, it’d be way premature to say either way. I can say I’m a fan and supporter. Like, she’s definitely going to be on my ranked-choice vote.”

<p>“No,” Tan said. “I’m a big fan, and honestly, we don’t even know who the field [of candidates] is yet. So, it’d be way premature to say either way. I can say I’m a fan and supporter. Like, she’s definitely going to be on my ranked-choice vote.”</p>

A day prior to his interview with The Standard, Tan met Daniel Lurie, an anti-poverty nonprofit founder and heir to the Levi Strauss fortune <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/26/qa-daniel-lurie-cites-crisis-of-leadership-in-run-for-san-francisco-mayor/">who is running for mayor</a>. Tan said he walked away from their conversation impressed.

Why is Daniel Lurie running for San Francisco mayor? He says city has leadership ‘crisis’

<p>A day prior to his interview with The Standard, Tan met Daniel Lurie, an anti-poverty nonprofit founder and heir to the Levi Strauss fortune <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/26/qa-daniel-lurie-cites-crisis-of-leadership-in-run-for-san-francisco-mayor/">who is running for mayor</a>. Tan said he walked away from their conversation impressed.</p>

Daniel Lurie shakes hands at a press conference at the Potrero Hill Neighborhood House after filing paperwork officially announcing his candidacy for mayor of San Francisco with the Department of Elections on Sept. 26, 2023.


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img height="1668" width="2500" src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LurieForMayor09262023__0818-1.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-204933"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Daniel Lurie shakes hands at a press conference at the Potrero Hill Neighborhood House after filing paperwork officially announcing his candidacy for mayor of San Francisco with the Department of Elections.</figcaption></figure>


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LurieForMayor09262023__0818-1.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-204933"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Daniel Lurie shakes hands at a press conference at the Potrero Hill Neighborhood House after filing paperwork officially announcing his candidacy for mayor of San Francisco with the Department of Elections.</figcaption></figure>

Tan’s support is likely to carry enormous sway in the city’s growing collection of moderate-leaning political groups, some of which Tan is advising. Tan sits on the board of GrowSF, a moderate group launched by two former tech workers, and is part of the “donor table” for <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/03/20/tech-families-abundant-sf-millions-housing-transportation-education/">Abundant SF, a coalition of upper-crust tech entrepreneurs</a> who plan to pool millions of dollars to spend on city elections each year starting in 2024.

San Francisco &#8216;tech families&#8217; plot to spend millions influencing policy

<p>Tan’s support is likely to carry enormous sway in the city’s growing collection of moderate-leaning political groups, some of which Tan is advising. Tan sits on the board of GrowSF, a moderate group launched by two former tech workers, and is part of the “donor table” for <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/03/20/tech-families-abundant-sf-millions-housing-transportation-education/">Abundant SF, a coalition of upper-crust tech entrepreneurs</a> who plan to pool millions of dollars to spend on city elections each year starting in 2024.</p>

Tan’s chaotic foray into politics appears to mark a new era from the high-society, ball gown and bowtie power brokers of the past.

<p>Tan’s chaotic foray into politics appears to mark a new era from the high-society, ball gown and bowtie power brokers of the past.</p>

“The old guard of people in politics, kind of like the Downtown developers and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/27/us/politics/27shorenstein.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the Shorensteins</a> and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-gavin-newsom-san-francisco-money/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the Fishers</a>, that’s a different class,” said Todd David, political director of Abundant SF. “When I think of the new generation of business leaders, especially the young ones, it’s hard for me to think of anyone who is more important than Garry.”

<p>“The old guard of people in politics, kind of like the Downtown developers and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/27/us/politics/27shorenstein.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the Shorensteins</a> and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-gavin-newsom-san-francisco-money/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the Fishers</a>, that’s a different class,” said Todd David, political director of Abundant SF. “When I think of the new generation of business leaders, especially the young ones, it’s hard for me to think of anyone who is more important than Garry.”</p>

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