Christina Campodonico

Jonathan Weber

There is plenty of evidence that many San Francisco residents believe the city has grown less safe in recent years, and especially during the pandemic.

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There is plenty of evidence that many San Francisco residents believe the city has grown less safe in recent years, and especially during the pandemic.

Eight out of ten San Franciscans <a href="https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/8-out-of-10-san-franciscans-say-crime-has-gotten-worse-poll/">believe crime has worsened in recent years</a>, according to one poll released by the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce this summer. Viral videos of shoplifters and other crime stories have spread fast on social media, feeding perceptions of a city out of control. Recently, one Marina neighborhood went so far as <a href="https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2021/10/19/san-francisco-marina-district-crime-private-security-auto-burglaries/">to hire private security</a> to patrol its streets.&nbsp;

Eight out of ten San Franciscans <a href="https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/8-out-of-10-san-franciscans-say-crime-has-gotten-worse-poll/">believe crime has worsened in recent years</a>, according to one poll released by the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce this summer. Viral videos of shoplifters and other crime stories have spread fast on social media, feeding perceptions of a city out of control. Recently, one Marina neighborhood went so far as <a href="https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2021/10/19/san-francisco-marina-district-crime-private-security-auto-burglaries/">to hire private security</a> to patrol its streets.&nbsp;

District Attorney Chesa Boudin is now facing a likely recall election, at least in part because of growing worries about crime.

District Attorney Chesa Boudin is now facing a likely recall election, at least in part because of growing worries about crime.

Boudin and other public officials, including Mayor London Breed and Police Chief Bill Scott,  have all acknowledged that many residents feel less safe.

Boudin and other public officials, including Mayor London Breed and Police Chief Bill Scott, have all acknowledged that many residents feel less safe.

But they <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/S-F-mayor-police-chief-rebut-growing-narrative-16309612.php">have pushed back</a> on the idea that the city is experiencing an unprecedented crime wave. City data shows reported crime <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/I-refuse-to-be-distracted-S-F-District-16303036.php">was down about 20% during 2020</a>, though this year&#8217;s numbers show a mixed picture. In San Francisco, as in much of the country, overall crime rates remain well below their 1990s levels.

But they <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/S-F-mayor-police-chief-rebut-growing-narrative-16309612.php">have pushed back</a> on the idea that the city is experiencing an unprecedented crime wave. City data shows reported crime <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/I-refuse-to-be-distracted-S-F-District-16303036.php">was down about 20% during 2020</a>, though this year's numbers show a mixed picture. In San Francisco, as in much of the country, overall crime rates remain well below their 1990s levels.

But they <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/S-F-mayor-police-chief-rebut-growing-narrative-16309612.php">have pushed back</a> on the idea that the city is experiencing an unprecedented crime wave. City data shows reported crime <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/I-refuse-to-be-distracted-S-F-District-16303036.php">was down about 20% during 2020</a>, though this year&#8217;s numbers show a mixed picture. In San Francisco, as in much of the country, overall crime rates remain well below their 1990s levels.

We asked Maxim Massenkoff, an economist at the Naval Postgraduate School, to look at the data for clues to the contradiction. His findings suggest at least part of the answer to the crime paradox: because so many fewer people were out and about during the pandemic, the chances of being a victim of a crime increased even as the overall crime rate decreased.&nbsp;

We asked Maxim Massenkoff, an economist at the Naval Postgraduate School, to look at the data for clues to the contradiction. His findings suggest at least part of the answer to the crime paradox: because so many fewer people were out and about during the pandemic, the chances of being a victim of a crime increased even as the overall crime rate decreased.&nbsp;

Massenkoff used anonymized GPS cell phone data <a href="https://www.safegraph.com/product-info/neighborhood-patterns">from Safegraph</a> to measure foot traffic in each of San Francisco’s roughly 600 <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2011/07/what-are-census-blocks.html">census blocks</a>. The data showed that the number of violent crimes rose from 0.9 per 10,000 people to 1.2 per 10,000 people—a jump of 34%. On Muni, where the number of boardings and the number of crime incidents are both reported, violent crimes per rider nearly tripled.

Massenkoff used anonymized GPS cell phone data <a href="https://www.safegraph.com/product-info/neighborhood-patterns">from Safegraph</a> to measure foot traffic in each of San Francisco’s roughly 600 <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2011/07/what-are-census-blocks.html">census blocks</a>. The data showed that the number of violent crimes rose from 0.9 per 10,000 people to 1.2 per 10,000 people—a jump of 34%. On Muni, where the number of boardings and the number of crime incidents are both reported, violent crimes per rider nearly tripled.

And when it comes to car crime, parking meter data makes it possible to see that on fully metered streets, the chances of having your car stolen rose 26% in 2020 and 52% so far in 2021 from 2019 levels.

And when it comes to car crime, parking meter data makes it possible to see that on fully metered streets, the chances of having your car stolen rose 26% in 2020 and 52% so far in 2021 from 2019 levels.

Read Massenkoff’s column <a href="https://sfstandard.com/perspective-why-your-chances-of-being-a-crime-victim-in-s-f-may-be-up-even-when-crime-is-down/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">here</a>.

Read Massenkoff’s column <a href="https://sfstandard.com/perspective-why-your-chances-of-being-a-crime-victim-in-s-f-may-be-up-even-when-crime-is-down/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">here</a>.

Mikaela Rabinowitz, director of data, research and analytics at the District Attorney’s office, said the research was flawed. In particular, she objected to the use of relative rate increases instead of absolute numerical increases. &#8220;For example, in looking at crime on Muni, the report notes that violent crime increased from .9 incidents per 10,000 people to 1.2 incidents per 10,000 people; but instead of accurately describing that as an absolute rate increase of .3, the report describes the rate at which the rate increased, which was 30%,” she said in a statement to Here/Say.

Mikaela Rabinowitz, director of data, research and analytics at the District Attorney’s office, said the research was flawed. In particular, she objected to the use of relative rate increases instead of absolute numerical increases. "For example, in looking at crime on Muni, the report notes that violent crime increased from .9 incidents per 10,000 people to 1.2 incidents per 10,000 people; but instead of accurately describing that as an absolute rate increase of .3, the report describes the rate at which the rate increased, which was 30%,” she said in a statement to Here/Say.

Mikaela Rabinowitz, director of data, research and analytics at the District Attorney’s office, said the research was flawed. In particular, she objected to the use of relative rate increases instead of absolute numerical increases. &#8220;For example, in looking at crime on Muni, the report notes that violent crime increased from .9 incidents per 10,000 people to 1.2 incidents per 10,000 people; but instead of accurately describing that as an absolute rate increase of .3, the report describes the rate at which the rate increased, which was 30%,” she said in a statement to Here/Say.

She also objected to what she said were inaccurate assumptions and small sample sizes, noting that the discussion of car crime was based on &#8220;a sample of 1% of motor vehicle thefts across 10% of city streets, a statistically invalid sample from which to infer citywide trends.&#8221;

She also objected to what she said were inaccurate assumptions and small sample sizes, noting that the discussion of car crime was based on "a sample of 1% of motor vehicle thefts across 10% of city streets, a statistically invalid sample from which to infer citywide trends."

She also objected to what she said were inaccurate assumptions and small sample sizes, noting that the discussion of car crime was based on &#8220;a sample of 1% of motor vehicle thefts across 10% of city streets, a statistically invalid sample from which to infer citywide trends.&#8221;

SFPD Chief Bill Scott acknowledges that the police department has a duty to address the public’s fears of crime, “regardless of what the statistics say.”

SFPD Chief Bill Scott acknowledges that the police department has a duty to address the public’s fears of crime, “regardless of what the statistics say.”

“The fear of crime is a real thing that we have to deal with,” he told us during <a href="https://sfstandard.com/san-francisco-police-chief-scott-national-night-out-safety-community/">a ridealong interview on National Night Out</a>. “I don&#8217;t care how those statistics slice up because if people fear that crime is happening, it&#8217;s a real problem.”

“The fear of crime is a real thing that we have to deal with,” he told us during <a href="https://sfstandard.com/san-francisco-police-chief-scott-national-night-out-safety-community/">a ridealong interview on National Night Out</a>. “I don't care how those statistics slice up because if people fear that crime is happening, it's a real problem.”

“The fear of crime is a real thing that we have to deal with,” he told us during <a href="https://sfstandard.com/san-francisco-police-chief-scott-national-night-out-safety-community/">a ridealong interview on National Night Out</a>. “I don&#8217;t care how those statistics slice up because if people fear that crime is happening, it&#8217;s a real problem.”

Scott believes that viral videos are a major contributor to the perception that San Francisco is dangerous, but he also notes that the underreporting of crimes could account for crime statistics not matching up with citizens’ lived reality.&nbsp;

Scott believes that viral videos are a major contributor to the perception that San Francisco is dangerous, but he also notes that the underreporting of crimes could account for crime statistics not matching up with citizens’ lived reality.&nbsp;

See our interview with Chief Scott below.

See our interview with Chief Scott below.

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<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
https://youtu.be/LuSYabZYu2A
</div><figcaption>Video by Jesse Rogala</figcaption></figure>

Academic experts point to some other factors that could contribute to fear of crime. Deserted streets and empty trains and buses can make crime more noticeable, for one. “Now we&#8217;ve got two people on the street. One of them is stealing handbags. It becomes very obvious,” says sociologist Sarah Lageson, an associate professor at Rutgers University Newark School of Criminal Justice who studies law, privacy, technology and surveillance.

Academic experts point to some other factors that could contribute to fear of crime. Deserted streets and empty trains and buses can make crime more noticeable, for one. “Now we've got two people on the street. One of them is stealing handbags. It becomes very obvious,” says sociologist Sarah Lageson, an associate professor at Rutgers University Newark School of Criminal Justice who studies law, privacy, technology and surveillance.

Academic experts point to some other factors that could contribute to fear of crime. Deserted streets and empty trains and buses can make crime more noticeable, for one. “Now we&#8217;ve got two people on the street. One of them is stealing handbags. It becomes very obvious,” says sociologist Sarah Lageson, an associate professor at Rutgers University Newark School of Criminal Justice who studies law, privacy, technology and surveillance.

Social media apps including Nextdoor and Citizen amplify skewed perceptions of crime with constant notifications about incidents, as do viral videos of shoplifting and other crimes, Lageson and others say. The generalized anxiety created by the pandemic is also a factor.

Social media apps including Nextdoor and Citizen amplify skewed perceptions of crime with constant notifications about incidents, as do viral videos of shoplifting and other crimes, Lageson and others say. The generalized anxiety created by the pandemic is also a factor.

There are plenty of questions about the city’s underlying data too. Supervisor Catherine Stefani, a former prosecutor, believes that the way that crime data is analyzed by city departments and communicated to the public needs to change. For instance, she believes a per capita crime rate based on the number of people in the city (rather than the resident population) would more accurately capture the city’s crime rate by accounting for the decline in tourists and commuters during the pandemic.&nbsp;

There are plenty of questions about the city’s underlying data too. Supervisor Catherine Stefani, a former prosecutor, believes that the way that crime data is analyzed by city departments and communicated to the public needs to change. For instance, she believes a per capita crime rate based on the number of people in the city (rather than the resident population) would more accurately capture the city’s crime rate by accounting for the decline in tourists and commuters during the pandemic.&nbsp;

She also observes that “a lot of what people perceive as crime isn&#8217;t captured in the crime rate.” Drug overdoses, for example, aren’t included in the aggregate crime rate, yet those deaths are likely linked to the criminal activity of drug dealers and illicit drug sales. Additionally, crimes like <a href="https://sfstandard.com/san-francisco-response-to-anti-asian-violence/">the spate of violent attacks against elderly Asian Americans</a> that horrified San Franciscans and caught national attention earlier this year, might be lumped in with assaults rather than documented as hate crimes.&nbsp;

She also observes that “a lot of what people perceive as crime isn't captured in the crime rate.” Drug overdoses, for example, aren’t included in the aggregate crime rate, yet those deaths are likely linked to the criminal activity of drug dealers and illicit drug sales. Additionally, crimes like <a href="https://sfstandard.com/san-francisco-response-to-anti-asian-violence/">the spate of violent attacks against elderly Asian Americans</a> that horrified San Franciscans and caught national attention earlier this year, might be lumped in with assaults rather than documented as hate crimes.&nbsp;

She also observes that “a lot of what people perceive as crime isn&#8217;t captured in the crime rate.” Drug overdoses, for example, aren’t included in the aggregate crime rate, yet those deaths are likely linked to the criminal activity of drug dealers and illicit drug sales. Additionally, crimes like <a href="https://sfstandard.com/san-francisco-response-to-anti-asian-violence/">the spate of violent attacks against elderly Asian Americans</a> that horrified San Franciscans and caught national attention earlier this year, might be lumped in with assaults rather than documented as hate crimes.&nbsp;

In addition to more nuanced data crunching, Stefani believes that city leaders shouldn’t be afraid to have real talk with citizens about crime. “When you tell people in San Francisco, ‘crime is down,’ you completely insult what they&#8217;re experiencing,” she says. “There is a lot more we should be doing.”&nbsp;

In addition to more nuanced data crunching, Stefani believes that city leaders shouldn’t be afraid to have real talk with citizens about crime. “When you tell people in San Francisco, ‘crime is down,’ you completely insult what they're experiencing,” she says. “There is a lot more we should be doing.”&nbsp;

In addition to more nuanced data crunching, Stefani believes that city leaders shouldn’t be afraid to have real talk with citizens about crime. “When you tell people in San Francisco, ‘crime is down,’ you completely insult what they&#8217;re experiencing,” she says. “There is a lot more we should be doing.”&nbsp;

Data offer clues on San Francisco’s crime paradox: Police chief and academics have some ideas too

Josh Koehn

Mayor London Breed faced a number of political pitfalls no matter who she appointed to replace Chesa Boudin as San Francisco’s district attorney. But <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/sfs-new-da-brooke-jenkins-ex-prosecutor-who-led-chesa-boudin-recall-named-his-successor/">selecting Brooke Jenkins</a>—a former homicide prosecutor in the office—could very well define the mayor’s legacy, for better or worse.

Mayor London Breed faced a number of political pitfalls no matter who she appointed to replace Chesa Boudin as San Francisco’s district attorney. But <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/sfs-new-da-brooke-jenkins-ex-prosecutor-who-led-chesa-boudin-recall-named-his-successor/">selecting Brooke Jenkins</a>—a former homicide prosecutor in the office—could very well define the mayor’s legacy, for better or worse.

First and foremost, Jenkins will need to win November’s election to retain the job in order for this appointment to be seen as anything other than a strategic blunder. We spoke with City Hall staff, political consultants and an elections expert to better understand what political calculus went into Breed’s decision and whether Thursday’s appointment will impact Boudin’s decision to run again for the seat.

First and foremost, Jenkins will need to win November’s election to retain the job in order for this appointment to be seen as anything other than a strategic blunder. We spoke with City Hall staff, political consultants and an elections expert to better understand what political calculus went into Breed’s decision and whether Thursday’s appointment will impact Boudin’s decision to run again for the seat.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-breed-brooke-show">The Breed &amp; Brooke Show</h2>

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<h2 id="h-the-breed-brooke-show">The Breed &amp; Brooke Show</h2>

The mayor and new DA are now politically joined at the hip. Breed had three real options: Jenkins, a Black and Latina woman who uniquely understands how the office operated before and after Boudin’s election; Nancy Tung, a prosecutor with experience in San Francisco and Alameda County who had <a href="https://sfstandard.com/community/many-asian-americans-voted-chesa-boudin-out-but-what-do-they-want-in-a-new-da/">substantial backing from the Asian American community</a>; and Catherine Stefani, a supervisor who made her play known before <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/chesa-boudin-recall/">the recall</a> by endorsing Boudin’s ouster.

The mayor and new DA are now politically joined at the hip. Breed had three real options: Jenkins, a Black and Latina woman who uniquely understands how the office operated before and after Boudin’s election; Nancy Tung, a prosecutor with experience in San Francisco and Alameda County who had <a href="https://sfstandard.com/community/many-asian-americans-voted-chesa-boudin-out-but-what-do-they-want-in-a-new-da/">substantial backing from the Asian American community</a>; and Catherine Stefani, a supervisor who made her play known before <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/chesa-boudin-recall/">the recall</a> by endorsing Boudin’s ouster.

Breed’s appointment of Jenkins attempts to make a balanced overture to the city’s dueling criminal justice factions. As a prosecutor who worked in the DA’s office for almost eight years, Jenkins checks the box experience-wise. Her background as a woman of color also uniquely positions her to understand the experiences of people who are disproportionately targeted by law enforcement and incarcerated.

Breed’s appointment of Jenkins attempts to make a balanced overture to the city’s dueling criminal justice factions. As a prosecutor who worked in the DA’s office for almost eight years, Jenkins checks the box experience-wise. Her background as a woman of color also uniquely positions her to understand the experiences of people who are disproportionately targeted by law enforcement and incarcerated.

And yet, Jenkins is a bit of a political wildcard. 

And yet, Jenkins is a bit of a political wildcard.

Mayor London Breed announces the appointment of Brooke Jenkins to the position of San Francisco District Attorney on Thursday, July 7, 2022 in San Francisco, Calif. Jenkins replaces Chesa Boudin, who was recalled by the voters of San Francisco. | Paul Kuroda for The Standard

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/jenkins.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-58868"/><figcaption>Mayor London Breed announces the appointment of Brooke Jenkins to the position of San Francisco District Attorney on Thursday, July 7, 2022 in San Francisco, Calif. Jenkins replaces Chesa Boudin, who was recalled by the voters of San Francisco. | Paul Kuroda for The Standard</figcaption></figure>

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/jenkins.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-58868"/><figcaption>Mayor London Breed announces the appointment of Brooke Jenkins to the position of San Francisco District Attorney on Thursday, July 7, 2022 in San Francisco, Calif. Jenkins replaces Chesa Boudin, who was recalled by the voters of San Francisco. | Paul Kuroda for The Standard</figcaption></figure>

She’s never held political office and her decision to quit the DA’s office and become the lead spokesperson for the recall campaign was deeply personal—she accused Boudin of improperly intervening in one of her cases and also took issue with his handling of a case involving the killing of her husband’s relative.

She’s never held political office and her decision to quit the DA’s office and become the lead spokesperson for the recall campaign was deeply personal—she accused Boudin of improperly intervening in one of her cases and also took issue with his handling of a case involving the killing of her husband’s relative.

As the recall spokesperson, Jenkins repeatedly said the DA’s office needed to take a tougher-on-crime approach. How that will play out when Boudin’s people get new marching orders from an interim boss who slammed their work is anybody’s guess.

As the recall spokesperson, Jenkins repeatedly said the DA’s office needed to take a tougher-on-crime approach. How that will play out when Boudin’s people get new marching orders from an interim boss who slammed their work is anybody’s guess.

In an interview with The Standard in May, Jenkins took digs at Boudin while laying out her vision of what the city should expect from its next district attorney.

In an interview with The Standard in May, Jenkins took digs at Boudin while laying out her vision of what the city should expect from its next district attorney.

“I think San Francisco has embraced this progressive mindset, embraced doing things differently and being on the cutting edge and wanting to change how we treat the underdogs in society. And I don’t see that ever changing,” she said. “But we have seen things go too far in a way that is leaving people vulnerable in ways they don’t want to feel vulnerable.”

“I think San Francisco has embraced this progressive mindset, embraced doing things differently and being on the cutting edge and wanting to change how we treat the underdogs in society. And I don’t see that ever changing,” she said. “But we have seen things go too far in a way that is leaving people vulnerable in ways they don’t want to feel vulnerable.”

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-blame-game">The Blame Game</h2>

<h2 id="h-the-blame-game">The Blame Game</h2>

Boudin’s supporters often argued—many times with merit—that he was unfairly blamed for the city’s many crises, including homelessness and people shooting up and smoking drugs on the street. The city’s police department doesn’t really arrest drug users and drug dealing arrests have also plummeted. The department is understaffed but also <a href="https://sfgov.org/policecommission/sites/default/files/Documents/PoliceCommission/PoliceCommission042022-SupervisorRonenletter%26Deptresponse.pdf">closes cases at an abysmal rate</a>. Over the course of the recall campaign, Boudin basically became a parrot in saying he could only try the cases police brought to his office.&nbsp;

Boudin’s supporters often argued—many times with merit—that he was unfairly blamed for the city’s many crises, including homelessness and people shooting up and smoking drugs on the street. The city’s police department doesn’t really arrest drug users and drug dealing arrests have also plummeted. The department is understaffed but also <a href="https://sfgov.org/policecommission/sites/default/files/Documents/PoliceCommission/PoliceCommission042022-SupervisorRonenletter%26Deptresponse.pdf">closes cases at an abysmal rate</a>. Over the course of the recall campaign, Boudin basically became a parrot in saying he could only try the cases police brought to his office.&nbsp;

And it’s true. A district attorney can’t fix the housing crisis, end the nation’s opioid addiction, and initiate large-scale investigations and make arrests. On the other hand, police said they lost faith that Boudin would charge cases the department sent his way, creating <a href="https://sfstandard.com/criminal-justice/war-sf-police-da-chesa-boudin-shootings-investigation/">an untenable situation</a>.

And it’s true. A district attorney can’t fix the housing crisis, end the nation’s opioid addiction, and initiate large-scale investigations and make arrests. On the other hand, police said they lost faith that Boudin would charge cases the department sent his way, creating <a href="https://sfstandard.com/criminal-justice/war-sf-police-da-chesa-boudin-shootings-investigation/">an untenable situation</a>.

While Jenkins will have a grace period to try and restore the office’s relationship with police, the ongoing overdose deaths and a sense that the rule of law is being disregarded on city streets is unlikely to end. If Jenkins can’t retain the district attorney job in November’s election, it won’t matter much what she says or does in the next four months.

While Jenkins will have a grace period to try and restore the office’s relationship with police, the ongoing overdose deaths and a sense that the rule of law is being disregarded on city streets is unlikely to end. If Jenkins can’t retain the district attorney job in November’s election, it won’t matter much what she says or does in the next four months.

But this is a pivotal appointment for Breed.

But this is a pivotal appointment for Breed.

The mayor—and by extension SFPD Chief Bill Scott, who joined Breed in press conferences starting last year to apply public pressure on Boudin—no longer has the progressive prosecutor as a political punching bag. If San Franciscans don’t see the situation on the ground improve over the next year, Breed could be as vulnerable as any official on the ballot in 2023.

The mayor—and by extension SFPD Chief Bill Scott, who joined Breed in press conferences starting last year to apply public pressure on Boudin—no longer has the progressive prosecutor as a political punching bag. If San Franciscans don’t see the situation on the ground improve over the next year, Breed could be as vulnerable as any official on the ballot in 2023.

Boudin was blamed for signaling to criminals that they had free rein in San Francisco. By next summer we’ll see just how much thieves, drug dealers and violent offenders are listening to tough talk from a new prosecutor.

Boudin was blamed for signaling to criminals that they had free rein in San Francisco. By next summer we’ll see just how much thieves, drug dealers and violent offenders are listening to tough talk from a new prosecutor.

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-boudin-strikes-back">Boudin Strikes Back</h2>

<h2 id="h-boudin-strikes-back">Boudin Strikes Back</h2>

The mayor’s appointment of Jenkins wasn’t subtle shade—it was an Oscars-worthy smack to Boudin.

The mayor’s appointment of Jenkins wasn’t subtle shade—it was an Oscars-worthy smack to Boudin.

The incoming district attorney spent the first half of this year telling anyone and everyone just how atrocious Boudin was at his job. But he still garnered 45% of the vote in the recall and he told the Chronicle last month that his supporters were urging him to run again.

The incoming district attorney spent the first half of this year telling anyone and everyone just how atrocious Boudin was at his job. But he still garnered 45% of the vote in the recall and he told the Chronicle last month that his supporters were urging him to run again.

So, would Boudin have a path to victory in November? Maybe.

So, would Boudin have a path to victory in November? Maybe.

The city’s ranked-choice voting system installed him into office with just 36% of the vote in 2019. Tung, who ran against Boudin that year and seemed to be the frontrunner as his successor, has said she intends to run in November. The mayor received more than 100 letters in support of Tung, a Chinese American, and the rise in reported hate crimes and discrimination targeting Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders played a major role in the recall.&nbsp;

The city’s ranked-choice voting system installed him into office with just 36% of the vote in 2019. Tung, who ran against Boudin that year and seemed to be the frontrunner as his successor, has said she intends to run in November. The mayor received more than 100 letters in support of Tung, a Chinese American, and the rise in reported hate crimes and discrimination targeting Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders played a major role in the recall.&nbsp;

It’s unclear how Jenkin’s appointment will sit with the local AAPI community, which in many ways has become the most important voting bloc in the city.

It’s unclear how Jenkin’s appointment will sit with the local AAPI community, which in many ways has become the most important voting bloc in the city.

Tung could run and possibly win, but she could also run and split the “tough-on-crime” vote with Jenkins. Meanwhile, Boudin’s progressive base would be more or less untouched—and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/willie-brown-da-chesa-boudin-mayor-london-breed-appoint-election/">maybe he picks off enough second-place votes to sneak back into office</a>. One other scenario is Jenkins could offer Tung a high-ranking job in the office in lieu of running.

Tung could run and possibly win, but she could also run and split the “tough-on-crime” vote with Jenkins. Meanwhile, Boudin’s progressive base would be more or less untouched—and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/willie-brown-da-chesa-boudin-mayor-london-breed-appoint-election/">maybe he picks off enough second-place votes to sneak back into office</a>. One other scenario is Jenkins could offer Tung a high-ranking job in the office in lieu of running.

Of course, a victory for Jenkins would not only put her on a new political trajectory but also insulate Breed from criticism in backing a neophyte and reopening the door to Boudin’s return.&nbsp;

Of course, a victory for Jenkins would not only put her on a new political trajectory but also insulate Breed from criticism in backing a neophyte and reopening the door to Boudin’s return.&nbsp;

And if that seems like trolling, just consider that a Boudin victory could inspire his opponents to déjà vu San Francisco voters next spring by launching another recall in 2023.

And if that seems like trolling, just consider that a Boudin victory could inspire his opponents to déjà vu San Francisco voters next spring by launching another recall in 2023.

Analysis: Mayor Breed gambles with her own political future in appointing Brooke Jenkins as district attorney

Joe Fitzgerald Rodriguez

Running as the lone progressive Democratic candidate in one of the nation’s most progressive cities arguably should make you a shoo-in for any office.

Running as the lone progressive Democratic candidate in one of the nation’s most progressive cities arguably should make you a shoo-in for any office.

But Supervisor Aaron Peskin has had an easier time <a href="https://www.instagram.com/aaronpeskin2024/reel/C_tjUdHSewc/">swimming the briny bay from Alcatraz to shore</a> than he has building a winning coalition for San Francisco mayor.

But Supervisor Aaron Peskin has had an easier time <a href="https://www.instagram.com/aaronpeskin2024/reel/C_tjUdHSewc/">swimming the briny bay from Alcatraz to shore</a> than he has building a winning coalition for San Francisco mayor.

Peskin hasn’t consistently cracked the top two vote-getters in polls this entire election season. Only now, as moderate Democrat candidates <a href="https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/sf-progressives-see-mayoral-chance-amid-moderate-infighting/article_7816b3be-9582-11ef-8676-3bcbd3e547ee.html">barrage each other in a siege of attack ads</a>, has Peskin nudged toward the top three choices in recent polls.

Peskin hasn’t consistently cracked the top two vote-getters in polls this entire election season. Only now, as moderate Democrat candidates <a href="https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/sf-progressives-see-mayoral-chance-amid-moderate-infighting/article_7816b3be-9582-11ef-8676-3bcbd3e547ee.html">barrage each other in a siege of attack ads</a>, has Peskin nudged toward the top three choices in recent polls.

So what are the chains holding Peskin down?

So what are the chains holding Peskin down?

Is he being buried in an avalanche of billionaire money? <a href="https://missionlocal.org/2024/10/michael-moritz-san-francisco-togethersf-sf-elections-crankstart/">They’re trying</a>. Has his years-old, salacious reputation for bullying hung like an albatross around his neck? <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/aaron-peskin-mayoral-race-19628544.php">His high negative rating</a> in polls shows there’s some truth to that. Or is it just plain tough for an older white guy to light up progressives when Vice President Kamala Harris, a multiracial woman of color, is top of the ticket? OK, maybe that too.

Is he being buried in an avalanche of billionaire money? <a href="https://missionlocal.org/2024/10/michael-moritz-san-francisco-togethersf-sf-elections-crankstart/">They’re trying</a>. Has his years-old, salacious reputation for bullying hung like an albatross around his neck? <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/aaron-peskin-mayoral-race-19628544.php">His high negative rating</a> in polls shows there’s some truth to that. Or is it just plain tough for an older white guy to light up progressives when Vice President Kamala Harris, a multiracial woman of color, is top of the ticket? OK, maybe that too.

Still, all of those challenges may have been surmountable if Peskin wrapped his hands around the right message. Instead, one of Peskin’s key issues is frozen in time: protecting renters.

Still, all of those challenges may have been surmountable if Peskin wrapped his hands around the right message. Instead, one of Peskin’s key issues is frozen in time: protecting renters.

Tenant organizers, former lawmakers, and housing production advocates told The Standard that Peskin may be missing the mark touting rent control and “responsible density” as residents <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/san-francisco-city-poll-19628724.php">cite affordability as one of their top concerns</a> and as the tenants movement itself is in a downswing. Let’s draw a distinction here: It isn’t that tenant protections aren’t needed or that Peskin’s work won’t help people. This is about what message is top of San Franciscans’ minds.

Tenant organizers, former lawmakers, and housing production advocates told The Standard that Peskin may be missing the mark touting rent control and “responsible density” as residents <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/san-francisco-city-poll-19628724.php">cite affordability as one of their top concerns</a> and as the tenants movement itself is in a downswing. Let’s draw a distinction here: It isn’t that tenant protections aren’t needed or that Peskin’s work won’t help people. This is about what message is top of San Franciscans’ minds.

Peskin is campaigning on his tenant protection record — which is admittedly quite extensive — but it hasn’t launched him to the front of the pack.

Peskin is campaigning on his tenant protection record — which is admittedly quite extensive — but it hasn’t launched him to the front of the pack.

One of his signature successes, rent control, is an easy example of a message that may have lost its shine. What help is preventing rent increases when you already pay half your salary just to hang onto your apartment?

One of his signature successes, rent control, is an easy example of a message that may have lost its shine. What help is preventing rent increases when you already pay half your salary just to hang onto your apartment?

Peskin’s political compass was forged in the fires of the first dot-com boom’s red-hot rental market. In 1999, a single phrase could send chills down a San Franciscan’s spine: Ellis Act eviction.

Peskin’s political compass was forged in the fires of the first dot-com boom’s red-hot rental market. In 1999, a single phrase could send chills down a San Franciscan’s spine: Ellis Act eviction.

In a city that has mostly constrained landlords’ ability to evict tenants who pay their rent on time and who play by the rules, the state Ellis Act allows landlords to pull their apartment buildings off the market, often to sell them as condos. When tech workers first bum-rushed the gold in San Francisco’s hills, many landlords saw dollar signs in their eyes.

In a city that has mostly constrained landlords’ ability to evict tenants who pay their rent on time and who play by the rules, the state Ellis Act allows landlords to pull their apartment buildings off the market, often to sell them as condos. When tech workers first bum-rushed the gold in San Francisco’s hills, many landlords saw dollar signs in their eyes.

Aaron Peskin, the President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors representing District 3, is speaks during a rally announcing his run for mayor of San Francisco on Saturday, April 6, 2024.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img height="1667" width="2500" src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/peskin-12.jpg?w=2500" alt="A crowd at a political rally with &quot;AARON&quot; signs, listening to a speaker at a podium." class="wp-image-265545"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Aaron Peskin, San Francisco Board of Supervisors president representing District 3, speaks during a rally announcing his run for mayor of San Francisco on April 6, 2024.</figcaption></figure>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/peskin-12.jpg?w=2500" alt="A crowd at a political rally with &quot;AARON&quot; signs, listening to a speaker at a podium." class="wp-image-265545"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Aaron Peskin, San Francisco Board of Supervisors president representing District 3, speaks during a rally announcing his run for mayor of San Francisco on April 6, 2024.</figcaption></figure>

In San Francisco, tech booms are eviction booms. Rent board data shows evictions nearly doubling the year before each of Peskin’s most hard-fought elections, first in 2000, then again in 2015.

In San Francisco, tech booms are eviction booms. Rent board data shows evictions nearly doubling the year before each of Peskin’s most hard-fought elections, first in 2000, then again in 2015.

“There was this incredible consciousness that affected the politics of the city around protecting tenants during those years, and that is not true today,” said Randy Shaw, executive director of the Tenderloin Housing Clinic.

“There was this incredible consciousness that affected the politics of the city around protecting tenants during those years, and that is not true today,” said Randy Shaw, executive director of the Tenderloin Housing Clinic.

In those years, evictions were like a bat-signal, and Peskin was a vigilante swooping down to “BAM!” “ZAP!” “POW!” scurrilous landlords.

In those years, evictions were like a bat-signal, and Peskin was a vigilante swooping down to “BAM!” “ZAP!” “POW!” scurrilous landlords.

A quarter century ago, when Peskin’s hair was still jet black, the then-president of the Telegraph Hill Dwellers protected the area around a special hill known for wild parrots and stunning views. That led the burgeoning firebrand to rally alongside Asian American civil rights and housing groups — like the Asian Law Caucus and the Chinatown Community Development Center — to protect tenants of 1345 Grant Ave. against an infamous, <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/ELDERLY-TENANTS-BATTLE-EVICTION-3059249.php">headline-grabbing Ellis Act eviction</a>. Kwong Choy, a 65-year-old gardener, feared his family might be evicted not only from their apartment, but from the city altogether.

A quarter century ago, when Peskin’s hair was still jet black, the then-president of the Telegraph Hill Dwellers protected the area around a special hill known for wild parrots and stunning views. That led the burgeoning firebrand to rally alongside Asian American civil rights and housing groups — like the Asian Law Caucus and the Chinatown Community Development Center — to protect tenants of 1345 Grant Ave. against an infamous, <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/ELDERLY-TENANTS-BATTLE-EVICTION-3059249.php">headline-grabbing Ellis Act eviction</a>. Kwong Choy, a 65-year-old gardener, feared his family might be evicted not only from their apartment, but from the city altogether.

Peskin and the alliance of Asian American groups won. During his first campaign for supervisor, Peskin seized that momentum.

Peskin and the alliance of Asian American groups won. During his first campaign for supervisor, Peskin seized that momentum.

Peskin’s flyers dubbed him “the renter’s choice.”

Peskin’s flyers dubbed him “the renter’s choice.”

Aaron Peskin for District 3 supervisor flyer

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img height="2135" width="2500" src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/a-peskin-renters-choice-2048x1750-2.jpg?w=2500" alt="An old flyer shows Aaron Peskin with black hair on the left, and reads &quot;Aaron Peskin for District 3 Supervisor, the renter's choice.&quot;" class="wp-image-324330"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Aaron Peskin for District 3 supervisor flyer</figcaption></figure>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/a-peskin-renters-choice-2048x1750-2.jpg?w=2500" alt="An old flyer shows Aaron Peskin with black hair on the left, and reads &quot;Aaron Peskin for District 3 Supervisor, the renter's choice.&quot;" class="wp-image-324330"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Aaron Peskin for District 3 supervisor flyer</figcaption></figure>

“He’s the candidate who really got involved in the community. Who understands the community’s need for housing, quality of life,” said Wing Hoo Leung, president of the Community Tenants Association, who remembers Peskin’s long-defense of Chinese renters.

“He’s the candidate who really got involved in the community. Who understands the community’s need for housing, quality of life,” said Wing Hoo Leung, president of the Community Tenants Association, who remembers Peskin’s long-defense of Chinese renters.

And make no bones about it: When he won, Peskin continued delivering for renters.

And make no bones about it: When he won, Peskin continued delivering for renters.

He cosponsored more than a dozen laws to protect tenants in his first two terms in office, many of which were successful: codifying tenants’ rights to distribute communications to other tenants to organize, limiting the amount of construction costs landlords could pass through to tenants, requiring tenants be paid when evicted under the Ellis Act, and more.

He cosponsored more than a dozen laws to protect tenants in his first two terms in office, many of which were successful: codifying tenants’ rights to distribute communications to other tenants to organize, limiting the amount of construction costs landlords could pass through to tenants, requiring tenants be paid when evicted under the Ellis Act, and more.

Peskin was the chief author of most of those laws. His competitors in the mayor’s race? Their legislative histories for tenants’ rights are as thin as an eviction slip.

Peskin was the chief author of most of those laws. His competitors in the mayor’s race? Their legislative histories for tenants’ rights are as thin as an eviction slip.

But there’s a flip side to that record. And how San Franciscans view it would slowly shift over time.

But there’s a flip side to that record. And how San Franciscans view it would slowly shift over time.

In 1999, fighting developers — and the homes they would build — was broadly seen as anti-gentrification. Defending the little guy. The now-defunct progressive newspaper, the <a href="https://www.abebooks.it/riviste-giornali/San-Francisco-Bay-Guardian-Vol-September/31439127323/bd#&amp;gid=1&amp;pid=1">San Francisco Bay Guardian</a> (may she rest in peace), even coined a word for the specter of towering developments: Manhattanization.

In 1999, fighting developers — and the homes they would build — was broadly seen as anti-gentrification. Defending the little guy. The now-defunct progressive newspaper, the <a href="https://www.abebooks.it/riviste-giornali/San-Francisco-Bay-Guardian-Vol-September/31439127323/bd#&amp;gid=1&amp;pid=1">San Francisco Bay Guardian</a> (may she rest in peace), even coined a word for the specter of towering developments: Manhattanization.

If Manhattanization was the villain, Peskin was King Kong.

If Manhattanization was the villain, Peskin was King Kong.

In 1999, Peskin was president of the Telegraph Hill Dwellers, a neighborhood group swatting back development. In its newsletter, “<a href="https://archive.org/details/thesemaphore1999winter150/page/n5/mode/2up?view=theater">Semaphore</a>,” Peskin touted the group’s latest win that year. “We saved the Colombo Building (at 1 Columbus Ave.) from the wrecker’s ball,” he wrote, preventing the construction of a condominium project. He trumpeted the Dwellers’ success enacting nearby 40-foot height limits to prevent dense development.

In 1999, Peskin was president of the Telegraph Hill Dwellers, a neighborhood group swatting back development. In its newsletter, “<a href="https://archive.org/details/thesemaphore1999winter150/page/n5/mode/2up?view=theater">Semaphore</a>,” Peskin touted the group’s latest win that year. “We saved the Colombo Building (at 1 Columbus Ave.) from the wrecker’s ball,” he wrote, preventing the construction of a condominium project. He trumpeted the Dwellers’ success enacting nearby 40-foot height limits to prevent dense development.

Grant Ave Mr Choy Ellis Act eviction 1999 dotcom fight

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img height="1667" width="2500" src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/grant-ave-building-2.jpg?w=2500" alt="A photo of an apartment building with protest signs hanging out of it reading &quot;save our homes!&quot; " class="wp-image-324333"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The tenants of a Grant Avenue home protest their landlord&#8217;s proposed Ellis Act eviction in 1999.</figcaption></figure>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/grant-ave-building-2.jpg?w=2500" alt="A photo of an apartment building with protest signs hanging out of it reading &quot;save our homes!&quot; " class="wp-image-324333"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The tenants of a Grant Avenue home protest their landlord's proposed Ellis Act eviction in 1999.</figcaption></figure>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/grant-ave-building-2.jpg?w=2500" alt="A photo of an apartment building with protest signs hanging out of it reading &quot;save our homes!&quot; " class="wp-image-324333"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The tenants of a Grant Avenue home protest their landlord&#8217;s proposed Ellis Act eviction in 1999.</figcaption></figure>

As supervisor, Peskin co-sponsored 2002’s Proposition D, which stripped some Planning Commission appointments from the mayor’s office, and gave them to the Board of Supervisors. It’s perhaps one of the most transformative moments in the city’s housing history, helping progressives pump the brakes on approvals for new home developments for the sake of public input. Then-Mayor Willie Brown clocked the measure as a choke point throttling new housing construction.

As supervisor, Peskin co-sponsored 2002’s Proposition D, which stripped some Planning Commission appointments from the mayor’s office, and gave them to the Board of Supervisors. It’s perhaps one of the most transformative moments in the city’s housing history, helping progressives pump the brakes on approvals for new home developments for the sake of public input. Then-Mayor Willie Brown clocked the measure as a choke point throttling new housing construction.

Brown called voters “<a href="https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/At-meeting-Brown-calls-S-F-voters-2768017.php">ass-backward”</a> for supporting the change. They had sided with Peskin.

Brown called voters “<a href="https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/At-meeting-Brown-calls-S-F-voters-2768017.php">ass-backward”</a> for supporting the change. They had sided with Peskin.

Decades later, studies would show San Francisco takes as long as 34 months to approve new housing that other cities move forward automatically. California government would <a href="https://www.kqed.org/news/11965492/san-francisco-takes-forever-to-approve-new-housing-california-officials-are-forcing-change">call out the ability</a> for a single San Franciscan to stall the construction of new housing.

Decades later, studies would show San Francisco takes as long as 34 months to approve new housing that other cities move forward automatically. California government would <a href="https://www.kqed.org/news/11965492/san-francisco-takes-forever-to-approve-new-housing-california-officials-are-forcing-change">call out the ability</a> for a single San Franciscan to stall the construction of new housing.

The housing affordability crisis flipped the anti-development conversation on its head.

The housing affordability crisis flipped the anti-development conversation on its head.

As rent soared higher than the tilting Millennium Tower, affordability became the issue on tenants’ lips. San Francisco YIMBY harnessed that frustration (yes, aided by <a href="https://inthesetimes.com/features/yimbys_activists_san_francisco_housing_crisis.html">heaps of cash spent by developers</a>) to promote a simple message: Build more housing and rental prices will drop. San Francisco YIMBY Organizing Director Jane Natoli noted Peskin never shifted his messaging to meet that new reality.

As rent soared higher than the tilting Millennium Tower, affordability became the issue on tenants’ lips. San Francisco YIMBY harnessed that frustration (yes, aided by <a href="https://inthesetimes.com/features/yimbys_activists_san_francisco_housing_crisis.html">heaps of cash spent by developers</a>) to promote a simple message: Build more housing and rental prices will drop. San Francisco YIMBY Organizing Director Jane Natoli noted Peskin never shifted his messaging to meet that new reality.

“I think that’s one of the challenges Peskin faces, right? He’s been around a long time. He knows a lot of people, so he’s shaped a lot [of politics], but those forces have also shaped him. And that makes it harder to cast yourself in a different light,” Natoli said.

“I think that’s one of the challenges Peskin faces, right? He’s been around a long time. He knows a lot of people, so he’s shaped a lot [of politics], but those forces have also shaped him. And that makes it harder to cast yourself in a different light,” Natoli said.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img height="1667" width="2500" src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/grant-ave-protest-2.jpg?w=2500" alt="A 1990's photograph of an elderly woman speaking from a microphone outside a home with protesters and Aaron Peskin standing around her." class="wp-image-324334"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Aaron Peskin, left, in 1999 stands in solidarity with tenants under threat of Ellis Act eviction on Grant Avenue.</figcaption></figure>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/grant-ave-protest-2.jpg?w=2500" alt="A 1990's photograph of an elderly woman speaking from a microphone outside a home with protesters and Aaron Peskin standing around her." class="wp-image-324334"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Aaron Peskin, left, in 1999 stands in solidarity with tenants under threat of Ellis Act eviction on Grant Avenue.</figcaption></figure>

Now, fighting developers isn’t seen as anti-gentrification by a broad swath of the electorate. Voters have — <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Scott_Wiener">in large numbers</a> — elected state Sen. Scott Wiener and Mayor London Breed on a message of housing production. Whether you agree with the argument or not, many voters now view fighting development as a backwards move that keeps rental prices high.

Now, fighting developers isn’t seen as anti-gentrification by a broad swath of the electorate. Voters have — <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Scott_Wiener">in large numbers</a> — elected state Sen. Scott Wiener and Mayor London Breed on a message of housing production. Whether you agree with the argument or not, many voters now view fighting development as a backwards move that keeps rental prices high.

And today, not enough renters feel threatened by evictions to make Peskin’s renter-friendly record resonate.

And today, not enough renters feel threatened by evictions to make Peskin’s renter-friendly record resonate.

Again, rent board data points the way. Evictions are far lower than they were during the twin dot-com booms that twice propelled Peskin to office — in fact, they’re down by roughly two-thirds. Since the pandemic, the rental market has largely cooled. There are fewer landlord-leery headlines, spurring fewer rallying activists to hoist “AARON FOR MAYOR!” signs.

Again, rent board data points the way. Evictions are far lower than they were during the twin dot-com booms that twice propelled Peskin to office — in fact, they’re down by roughly two-thirds. Since the pandemic, the rental market has largely cooled. There are fewer landlord-leery headlines, spurring fewer rallying activists to hoist “AARON FOR MAYOR!” signs.

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California Working Party State Director Jane Kim, a former San Francisco supervisor and Peskin ally, wonders if progressives succeeded to their own political detriment. Is 2024 simply a cooler economic moment? Or did progressive Democrats write so many tenant protection laws that folks are not as energized to fight developers?

California Working Party State Director Jane Kim, a former San Francisco supervisor and Peskin ally, wonders if progressives succeeded to their own political detriment. Is 2024 simply a cooler economic moment? Or did progressive Democrats write so many tenant protection laws that folks are not as energized to fight developers?

“I’ve been asking myself that question the last two years,” Kim said. On the issue of housing, “did we win everything that the voters had an appetite for on the progressive agenda?”

“I’ve been asking myself that question the last two years,” Kim said. On the issue of housing, “did we win everything that the voters had an appetite for on the progressive agenda?”

Whatever the reason, the current simmer in the tenants’ movement can be seen with your own eyeballs.

Whatever the reason, the current simmer in the tenants’ movement can be seen with your own eyeballs.

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