The 49ers have zero doubts about Brock Purdy’s value — but his price is a huge question

The 49ers know Brock Purdy — who he is, what makes him tick, how hard he works, and generally what he’s worth on the field and off. From the top executives to the stars to the rank and file, they know.

And they also know what Purdy isn’t and doesn’t claim to be, which is even more important for the biggest looming issue facing this franchise and one of the biggest moments in Purdy’s career: Can the 49ers and their quarterback come to a long-term agreement this off-season and make sure there is zero mystery or turmoil involved?

The 49ers’ top executives know that Purdy isn’t a rocket-armed superstar quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. They know he hasn’t won a Super Bowl or proven that he can carry a team by himself. They know he was great to close 2022, one of the best quarterbacks in the league in 2023, and not so good at all this season — just like everybody else on the team, including the head coach, general manager, and owner.

But they also know that Purdy has never, ever intimated that he was a superstar. They know he hasn’t blamed a single soul for the downturn except himself. They know he barely took credit for the good times in the recent past. They know he’s desperate to help the team get back there. They know it because they’ve seen it his whole 49ers career, and they saw and heard it again Thursday night, after the 49ers’ terrible offensive performance in a loss to the Rams.

“I had to be better for this team and didn’t play my best tonight,” Purdy said somberly. “Got to watch the film and see what happened and where my mindset was at with each play. But I just feel like I had a lot of plays left out there that I could have made for our team. I thought the defense and special teams played so good. And that’s what’s hurting me is I just feel like I failed the team.”

The 49ers know Brock Purdy. Once negotiations are allowed to start after the conclusion of the 49ers’ season, there is no guarantee that both sides will automatically find the right price point in a proven QB1 market that starts around $30 million a year and tops out at double that. Purdy has to do what’s best for him and his family. The 49ers have to manage every dollar of a very pricey payroll — without the playoff berth this season to justify it.

But inside 49ers HQ, there isn’t much doubt about Purdy’s future and plenty of logical of reasons why this is so. The 49ers’ executives aren’t positioning this to be a hardball negotiation. And Purdy has taken zero public or private stance that would set the stage for sky-high demands and the kind of bitter feelings that still linger after Brandon Aiyuk’s long stalemate earlier this year. Nothing seems to be out of kilter. Everything seems realistic. (That is, except for hyperventilating reactions to a recent general report that Purdy probably would want a top deal. Folks, no agent or exec is going to say before negotiations start that, gee, the deal will be mediocre for all sides. You say you expect a killer deal. Then you … negotiate.) And Purdy sets that tone.

“Brock, he’s a selfless person,” said George Kittle when told that Purdy was blaming himself for the Rams loss. “He does not have an ego. He is a fantastic leader. He’s a fantastic playmaker. We’ve won games because of him. I don’t want him to wear that on his shoulders. But when you’re the quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers, there’s always a spotlight on you. … I love him for doing that and taking the blame. But it’s not on him. It’s not.”

The team and player usually have conflicting motivations in major financial decisions. But this one is unique — there are overlapping motivations. Purdy has made minimum salaries his whole career and is due to make only $1.1 million in 2025. He doesn’t have to take whatever the 49ers offer, but whatever the number, it’ll be a life-changing raise for him. And the 49ers don’t want to get into the waiting game with Purdy, who would hit free agency in March 2026 if there’s no new deal. The 49ers could franchise tag him at that point, but that’s normally a path for an eventual QB exit. If the two sides want to be together, they usually sign the deal well before free agency.

So, practically, what does this all mean for the pending negotiations? It means that Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are set on Purdy as their QB1 into the future and will want this deal done swiftly to make sure next off-season starts more smoothly than last off-season. And it means that if the 49ers offer something realistic at the top end of the market — but not necessarily the very top — this contract might really happen quickly.

The 49ers almost never get their biggest deals done until late summer or later, as we all saw with Nick Bosa two seasons ago and Aiyuk and Trent Williams this season. They have a history of haggling. But in one relatively recent instance they worked quite rapidly: the market-busting deal to sign Jimmy Garoppolo in early February 2018. QB1s are different. And the 49ers are much more confident about Purdy now than they were about Garoppolo back then.

It can’t be ignored, though, that Purdy’s statistics have dropped markedly this season — his passer rating, completion percentage, QBR, touchdown rate, and yards per attempt are all down or way down. So, obviously, are the 49ers’ win total and overall offensive production. If Purdy was having another Pro Bowl season, he could rightly ask for a $55-60 million a year. He’s not, though.

If you want to look at it as a pure value play, Purdy is 24, finishing just his second full season as a starter, and we can probably look at all the injuries around him and conclude that this is the very bottom of his performance curve. What other QB could the 49ers get who would be a better fit for Shanahan’s offense and the spirit of this team and perform even as well as Purdy at his worst? Remember, the last time Shanahan and Lynch went hunting for a new QB was when they got tired of Garoppolo after the 2020 season and ended up trading three first-round picks to choose between Trey Lance and Mac Jones.

Also, have you seen Anthony Richardson this season? Kirk Cousins? Trevor Lawrence? Have you totally absorbed what’s happened to the QB-deprived Raiders the last two seasons?

At his best, Purdy is a top-10 QB with four career playoff victories and a Super Bowl start already in his ledger. At his worst? Well, he’s currently 15th in passer rating and 10th in QBR — that’s a pretty solid baseline, and he’s younger than every QB currently ahead of him in either category except Washington rookie Jayden Daniels, who is 10th in passer rating and fifth in QBR.

That all could seem fairly convoluted. But people I trust don’t think it’s very tough to decipher. Purdy deserves a big deal, probably worth over $50 million a year, but well short of resetting the market for the position. The 49ers are sure about him, but realistic. He’s their best option at QB for now and should only get better as this contract ages. If he’s good, the Shanahan/Lynch era will continue and they’ll be contenders almost every season. And the 49ers’ negotiators will also make sure they’re protected in some way in case Purdy isn’t so good in 2025 and 2026. Either way, Purdy will likely have another shot at a huge payday before he’s 30.

Here are some ways this contract negotiation could go, starting from the most expensive …

The Cowboys and Prescott dickered on this for months until Dallas finally signed Prescott to a record-breaking four-year, $60 million-a-year deal last September because it couldn’t afford to let him hit the market this coming off-season.

There is zero chance the 49ers let it go into next September with Purdy and probably 0.5% chance that Purdy will demand to reset the market by beating the Prescott average. If Purdy does ask for this kind of money — again, which I very much doubt will happen — the 49ers probably would make a decision in April and possibly see what they could get for Purdy in a trade. I put all of that into the 0.5% territory.

It’s never bad to copy what the Eagles do financially. And I’ve pointed out the Hurts/Purdy comps for at least a year now. Neither were top draft picks or are classic pocket passers, and both got their chances early and won a ton of games early. Like Hurts, Purdy has the kind of character that the coaching staff is happy to bet on, though it’s possible that management isn’t sure whether to make that an all-in wager.

Hurts didn’t go for broke in his negotiation before the 2023 season but got a true and long commitment from the Eagles. Hurts is making $51 million a year, which didn’t set a record, but he also received $179 million in guarantees over a five-year deal.

I’d expect Purdy’s camp to start their negotiations at a value comparable to this one, probably plus 5% or so. He definitely has the bargaining power to ask for this. And I’d expect the 49ers to gulp a little about $180 million or more in guarantees. So I think this is the high side of what to expect for a Purdy deal.

I’m talking about Goff’s first big deal, with the Rams before the 2019 season, after his trip to the Super Bowl, when then-24-year-old Goff got a four-year, $134-million extension. It was big but also short enough to be movable a few years later when the Rams got a chance to swap Goff for Matthew Stafford.

Similarly, Jordan Love got a big number from the Packers before this season — $55 million AAV, $160.3 million guaranteed — but it’s also for four years. He’s already almost a quarter through it.

Basically, when a young QB1 gets a deal shorter than five years, it’s a team being about 75% certain of the QB and creating a tiny bit of flexibility. I think it’s very possible that the 49ers try this — holding the line on Purdy on terms more than on average salary. It wouldn’t be a big giveaway by Purdy, since a couple of good years would put him in position, still in his 20s, to demand and receive a top-3 contract extension at last.

If you made me guess on the Purdy outcome, I’d say a slightly lower AAV than the Love deal, maybe a slightly higher guarantee, and the same term of four years. Then both sides do this again in Spring 2027.