The Warriors definitely have a few interesting ways they could trade for Jimmy Butler right now — but not so many compelling reasons to actually want to.
That’s the main problem for everybody around the NBA suggesting that the Warriors are a logical exit point for the latest Butler blow-up, now that he has semi-publicly asked to be traded from the Miami Heat and the Heat have very publicly shouted to the world that they want to make his wish to come true ASAP.
If you acquire Butler, you’d better really want him, need him, and have a strong desire to pay him quite lavishly beyond his existing (already quite lavish) contract terms. If you acquire Butler, you’re hoping for the best, but you’re also darned sure that, inevitably, the worst will eventually come — as it is coming for the Heat right now, after they hit him with a seven-game suspension for detrimental conduct. If you acquire Butler, you are selling part of your soul to do it.
And by all indications, the Warriors have likely already decided that Butler, at 35, with his performance dwindling while his ability to cause internal strife is not, simply isn’t worth any of this.
Yes, the Warriors could use another headline star alongside Stephen Curry and Draymond Green and have been searching for one for a while now. And yes, Jonathan Kuminga might be lost for more than a week after he badly sprained his right ankle in Saturday’s victory over Memphis, creating an offensive and athletic void that the Warriors will struggle to fill as they fight to get back into the upper tiers of the Western Conference.
Yes, Butler has been one of this era’s best and most reliable playoff performers; trading for him would be a gigantic sign from Joe Lacob and Mike Dunleavy Jr. that the Warriors are all-in for this season and for maximizing Curry’s prime years. All-in times 100.
But acquiring Butler just to say you’re doing something big would be the ultimate hollow move. It just doesn’t make sense financially or strategically. Butler, who is making $48.8 million this season and has a player option for $52 million next season, flat out isn’t worth that money anymore. He wouldn’t be worth the players the Warriors would have to put into the offer to match that salary for salary-cap purposes. And he wouldn’t be worth the agonies Butler will be due to stir up almost immediately — he’d want a new contract and probably a contract after that and so on.
The Warriors would almost be pot-committed to extending Butler at that point. How could they give up all those players — starting with Wiggins and probably adding Kuminga and others — only to let Butler walk in July? But how does getting stuck with a huge Butler contract help them as he heads into his late-30s? The solution to that dilemma is not to get into that dilemma.
Dangerous in a lot of ways
In a pure basketball sense, Butler would obviously improve the Warriors. But he would also be a dangerous triple-down on their main vulnerability as an aging, incredibly expensive group of top-line stars who have to be managed carefully through back-to-backs and the grind of a long season.
This is not to say that the Warriors should be satisfied with their roster and their current eighth seeding in the West at 18-16. Their 4-13 tumble after a buoyant 12-3 start to the season provided every piece of evidence necessary to show that they’ve got some very visible weaknesses. But they’ve won two in a row; and now they’re actually only 2.5 games behind the fifth-seed Lakers. Moving up the standings, even in this tough conference, is not at all impossible.
The Warriors simply don’t need to press the panic button immediately. They acquired Dennis Schroder 10 games ago and he has only recently started to look like the dynamic two-way point guard they thought they were getting. And they’ve got more than a month before the Feb. 6 trade deadline to weigh the market and maybe see if a shooting big man — their clearest need — comes available at a moderate price.
“For me, it’s, ‘Let’s see what we can do these next few weeks,'” Steve Kerr said before Saturday’s game. “Hopefully, we settle into this rotation, start shooting the ball better. I think with Dennis in the mix now, we have a chance to really be a great defensive team again like we were early in the year and if we can put it together then we may not need to do anything. But we definitely need to take this next month and really see what we have.”
Of course, Lacob isn’t the most patient kind of owner. He told me — only part jokingly — last month, soon after the Schroder trade: “Obviously, if we keep losing, I’m going to want to … do something else.”
There are definitely non-Butler options. Nicola Vucevic is a much more practical target, as Anthony Slater, Sam Amick, and Marcus Thompson of The Athletic noted Saturday morning. The deep-shooting veteran center is having a good season in Chicago, making a palatable $20 million this season and $21.4 million next season. The Warriors could package, say, Gary Payton II’s $9.2 million, Buddy Hield’s $8.8 million, and Kevon Looney’s $8 million and be able to take back Vucevic and another contract.
And meanwhile, the Warriors can save up their most interesting assets — Wiggins, Brandin Podziemski, and Kuminga as a pending restricted free agent — to take another swing for Lauri Markkanen or another high-value star next summer.
Any trade for Butler would almost certainly have to include Wiggins’ contract. And I wouldn’t trade Wiggins at his salary for Butler at his, straight up. I also wouldn’t trade Kuminga in any Butler deal, and you know Miami will be asking for that kind of value. It might not be what Warriors fans want to hear, but it’s time to save the assets. Time to wait a bit longer.
Let Schroder figure his way through the Warriors’ system and see if he can do some damage in the spring. Pace out Curry and Draymond during the dog days. Watch Kuminga rise or fall. See if they can acquire Vucevic or somebody like him. Try to snare a top-six seed in the playoffs and make some noise. Again: You think any Western Conference team is looking forward to trying to beat Curry four times in April or May?
Then the Warriors can take another swing at a star next summer. They don’t have to force it now. Because Jimmy Butler is the wrong star at the wrong price and wrong time.