In the bowels of Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles on Feb. 6, Jimmy Butler held up a No. 10 Warriors jersey and introduced himself as a Warrior.
“I know I have my joy back,” Butler said.
Outside the press conference room, the Warriors hollered in the tunnel as they braced to take the court. Mid-sentence, Butler’s eyes widened. Those my guys? Yeah, those my guys. He smiled, almost in disbelief.
Butler didn’t play that night. Neither did Luka Doncic, who joined the Lakers a couple of days earlier in the trade that rocked the NBA.
On Thursday, in the same arena, Butler and Doncic will square off for the first time as members of their new teams, which happen to not like each other very much.
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The trade deadline restored the NBA’s balance of power, bringing championship aspirations back to the Warriors and Lakers — two of the league’s most glamorous franchises.
With Butler in the lineup, the new-look Warriors are 19-4 and boast the league’s fifth-best net rating since the deadline. With Doncic in Los Angeles’ lineup, the Lakers are 16-6 and have as scary an offensive trio as any team.
Revamped, restored, and fresh, Golden State and Los Angeles clash during the home stretch of the season. The Warriors (44-31) trail the Lakers by two games. Golden State’s goal is to stay out of the play-in round (seeds 7 through 10), but would welcome any rise up the standings.
“It’s extremely important,” Steph Curry said of avoiding the play-in. “Guarantee a series and you get a week off — nobody wants to be in the play-in if you can control the outcome. But I think we’re past worrying about looking at the standings every night. It’s just win as many games as possible, worry about each night as best as you can.”
It’s time for them to worry about Luka and the Lakers, then.
What’s at stake for the Dubs
Passing the Lakers in the standings will be tough for the Warriors. Because Los Angeles won the first three matchups, the Lakers have already secured the head-to-head tiebreaker. That means for the Warriors to climb past the Lakers, they’ll need to finish the season a full game ahead.
But it’s not impossible. And jumping Denver or Los Angeles — currently the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds, respectively, in the West — would earn the Warriors home-court advantage in the first round. That would’ve been unimaginable a couple months ago, when Golden State was below .500 and sitting at 10th.
A Warriors win would inch them within a game of the Lakers. Two of the Lakers’ final six games come at Oklahoma City, where the Thunder have the best regular-season net rating of all time.
After the Warriors’ massive win over Memphis Tuesday, they had a 58.6% chance of finishing in the top-six and avoiding the play-in round as of Wednesday morning.
What’s changed for the Warriors
With Butler in the mix, the Warriors have played more isolation offense, particularly when Curry is on the bench. But Butler is also an excellent passer, and his slash-and-kick game has slotted players like Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, and Gui Santos into roles they’ve thrived in.
On the defensive end, sending out Andrew Wiggins for Butler has marginally hurt. Podziemski and Moody have embraced defending tough on-ball assignments at the point of attack.
The biggest difference with Butler is Golden State’s ability to get to the foul line. Before the trade, the Warriors ranked 28th in free throw attempts per game. Since, they’ve averaged the third-most free throws in the league. Against Memphis, Butler hit all 12 of his foul shots and the team went a perfect 28-for-28 at the stripe.
Perhaps more significant than any on-court development is the palpable vibe shift Butler has brought. Before the Warriors acquired him, their season was going nowhere fast. Now, there’s a belief — even independent of Draymond Green’s public championship decree at All-Star weekend — that this team could make a run.
“Since [Butler’s] been here, we’ve walked into every game thinking and believing that we’re going to win that game,” Green said. “And that goes a long way in this league. When you walk into a game like, ‘Ah man, we’re probably going to lose,’ it’s not good. He’s brought back that belief.”
What’s changed for the Lakers
Such a wild, unpredictable trade — Anthony Davis for Doncic — was bound to have a variety of trickle-down effects.
But what has been most surprising is the Lakers’ improved defense.
They swapped out Davis, one of the best rim-protectors in the league, for a player who routinely gets targeted on the perimeter. Yet the Lakers ranked 18th in defensive rating before the deadline and have registered the 12th-best mark since — including a 15-game stretch where they ranked first in the NBA.
The Lakers also play slightly faster with Doncic, who isn’t really a fast-break player but is a maestro at hit-ahead passes.
With Doncic, the Lakers have had to adjust with LeBron James playing more off the ball. James and Austin Reaves have developed a nice two-man and screening chemistry as Doncic orchestrates in the half-court.
How the trades could affect the matchup
The game-planning challenges the Lakers pose for the Warriors aren’t necessarily harder or easier, but they’re certainly different.
Davis, when healthy, was a terror for the Warriors. The Lakers could funnel Curry into the lane, where he awaited to thwart anything at the rim. Davis was also one of the tougher assignments for Draymond Green because of his mix of skill, size and physicality on the block.
The Lakers’ size has given the Warriors issues in recent years. Although they no longer have Davis, the Lakers have a different kind of size now. Reaves, at 6-foot-5, is often their shortest player on the court. Versatile wings Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Dorian Finney-Smith have elevated into bigger roles, and James has amped up his defense even at 40 years old.
In Los Angeles’ best defensive stretch with Doncic, they had a lot of success sagging off one non-shooter and switching everything. They’re well-coached and play the percentages, filtering the ball to unreliable players from three (for the Warriors, that could mean Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and Kevon Looney).
Still, even as the Lakers have proven to be switchable, there will be matchups available for the Warriors to pick at. If Butler or Curry get Reaves or Doncic on a switch, they should be able to create a shot or break the paint.
The Lakers might have similar advantages. Especially without Wiggins, it’s going to be hard for the Warriors to match up with the Lakers’ star wings. Both Moody and Kuminga have a decent track record at slowing down Doncic, but from a pure size standpoint, Golden State doesn’t have a plethora of options. Either Butler or Green will likely have to spend time checking James or Doncic, and although both are capable of competing, each is better as a help defender.
Looking at the standings, it’s not hard to imagine the Lakers and Warriors facing off in a glitzy first-round chess game. The strategizing starts now.