For weeks now, part of Steve Kerr’s daily routine has been to pull up the Western Conference standings and check the scores of teams around the Warriors.
That’s going to continue through the final week of the season.
After Sunday’s 106-96 loss to Houston, the Warriors joined the Grizzlies, Clippers, and Timberwolves as 46-32 teams. The Nuggets, who have played one additional game, are 47-32.
The playoff picture is as logjammed as can be. Despite a recent five-game winning streak and a 20-3 record with Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green in the lineup, Golden State remains at risk of falling into the play-in round. A win over Houston would’ve vaulted them into fourth place. A loss Tuesday at Phoenix could sink them to eighth.
“The only way I know for sure is if we win our last four games, we’re not in the play-in,” Kerr said.
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The Rockets’ athleticism, length, and physicality bothered the Warriors into 20 turnovers on Sunday. Amen Thompson (likely the best athlete in the NBA), Tari Eason, and Jalen Green harassed Curry into a 1-for-10 night, halting the tear he entered on.
Draymond Green tussled with Rockets center Alperen Sengun and finished his night with five fouls plus a technical and a flagrant. This was the fifth matchup of the season between Houston and Golden State, and it seems like each features escalating degrees of chippiness.
“I think that was the moment we won the game. Because [Draymond] got teed up, and we responded well,” Sengun said. “I think they were trying to scare us to play softer.”
In addition to Green’s technical, Houston coach Ime Udoka exchanged words with Curry as the teams headed toward the locker rooms for halftime.
The Warriors and Rockets could meet in a first-round series if the Warriors sink to seventh. But, as they’ve stated all spring, their goal is to avoid that fate.
According to Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report, the loss to the Rockets decreased the Warriors’ chances of staying above the play-in line from 72.6 to 58.7.
Winning out would guarantee Golden State a top-six finish. Remaining on the Warriors’ schedule: Tuesday at Phoenix, Wednesday at home against the Spurs, Friday at Portland, and the regular-season finale Sunday against the Clippers at Chase Center.
Here are the remaining schedules for the other teams in a practical heat with Golden State:
Nuggets (47-32): at Kings, Grizzlies, at Rockets
Clippers (46-32): Spurs, Rockets, at Kings, at Warriors
Timberwolves (46-32): at Bucks, at Grizzlies, Nets, Jazz
Grizzlies (46-32): at Hornets, Timberwolves, at Nuggets, Mavericks
Because Minnesota and Memphis face each other, only one of them can finish the season 4-0. And the Warriors own the tiebreaker over both. If the Warriors lose and go 3-1 this week, their easiest path to a top-six seed is the winner of Timberwolves-Grizzlies losing another game.
If at least four of those teams finish the season with the same record, the worst seed the Warriors could have is No. 6 based on tiebreakers.
The Warriors-Clippers matchup Sunday will almost certainly be crucial. Los Angeles has already secured the head-to-head tiebreaker, having won the first three meetings. That means the Warriors would have to finish a full game ahead of the Clippers to be seeded above them.
Basketball Reference’s projections of the remaining games have the Clippers finishing as the No. 4 seed, playing the Warriors as the No. 5 seed.
When the Warriors acquired Butler, they sat in the 10th seed. They’ve since climbed and climbed and climbed, surging so far that they’ve sniffed the top half of the conference.
Butler: ‘I don’t care’
Unlike Kerr, Butler doesn’t spend time studying the standings. “Zero, I don’t care,” he said. His perspective is that as long as the Warriors win games, everything will work out.
The play-in format began in 2021. Butler was on the only play-in team to reach the NBA Finals, when he carried the Heat out of the eighth seed to an Eastern Conference title.
“I’ve always been one to think that whatever squad I’m on, we always have a chance,” Butler said. “I know whatever squad [Curry is on, whatever squad Green] is on, always has a chance. So I’d like to think that all three of us together have a really good chance. We want to not be in the play-in. We’re playing to not be in the play-in. We’re going to win the last four. That’s that. We’ve got a job to do anyway; that’s to win a championship no matter what seed we are.”
The Warriors have never won a play-in game — an ominous track record. Perhaps even more valuable than avoiding at least one do-or-die game, though, would be the week off Golden State would earn if they finish in the top-six.
The Warriors’ season finale is Sunday, and the first round is set to begin April 19. The play-in round would take place between those dates. Although their full rotation is available, the Warriors have been banged up, and any team — especially one with so many veterans — values extra days off.
So, Kerr’s standings routine goes on. As another Sunday-night routine of his ended.
“Quickly move on,” Kerr said after Sunday’s loss. “I’m going to go home and watch ‘The White Lotus,’ then I’m going to get on a plane. I’m just being honest.”