HOUSTON — All of the talk leading up to Game 1 of the Warriors’ first-round series against the Houston Rockets came back to two things: limiting turnovers and doing what they can to keep the Rockets off the offensive glass.
If the Warriors took care of the ball, they could force the Rockets to play in the halfcourt, where they struggle. Perhaps the only way they can score consistently, there, is off offensive rebounds. Brandin Podziemski said Houston is a team that wins games by missing shots.
Golden State’s 95-85 victory at the Toyota Center made the Warriors’ coaching staff look like fortune tellers.
The Rockets scored 22 second-chance points on 22 offensive rebounds and 23 more points off turnovers. That’s 45 of their 85 points — excluding foul shots in such situations — coming in the two areas they specialize in. When the Warriors made them play in the halfcourt, the Rockets scored 65.5 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning The Glass, registering in the 1st percentile among playoff and play-in games this season.
The game played out almost exactly how the Warriors anticipated. “Extremely close to what we expected,” Draymond Green said. Maybe someone should ask Steve Kerr for the next Powerball numbers.
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“That’s obviously their advantage in this series, is the size and athleticism and the offensive rebounding,” Kerr said. “They had 22 of them. We can be better, for sure, but they’re going to get offensive rebounds in this series, they just are…I really think our defense can get the job done in this series. So we can’t be turning it over, we can’t give up a million offensive boards — but they’re going to get some, for sure.”
Steph Curry dropped a game-high 31 points, fighting through physical, rangy defenders to display incredible shot-making. Jimmy Butler added 25 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and five steals, powering Golden State with excellent two-way play. Moses Moody also hit a pair of huge shots late in the fourth quarter to put the Rockets away.
But the Warriors won by only turning the ball over 11 times. That made the Rockets play in the halfcourt, where Golden State knows it can stop them.
The Rockets ranked in the bottom-third in both 3-pointers taken and made in the regular season. That made them inefficient outside of transition in today’s NBA. Their warts showed in Game 1.
Guards Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet combined to shoot 7-for-34 from the field (20.5%). Any time the Rockets drove into the lane, they seemed to jump as high as they could and whip the ball at the glass, hoping not to break it.
Alperen Sengun was Houston’s lone source of consistent offense. He produced a magnificent 26-point, nine-rebound game, but the Rockets didn’t have anything else to go to against a Golden State defense that ranked first in the league after the All-Star break.
“Our defense was excellent,” Kerr said. “We just held a hell of a team to 85 points on their own floor.”
The Rockets were struggling so much to score, they leaned into their strength of offensive rebounding by playing Steven Adams and Sengun together — even with Curry on the floor. They pounded the glass, recording a ludicrous offensive rebounding rate of 41%.
“At times, their best offense is offensive rebounds,” Green said. “They are elite at that. That’s something we expected.”
At one point, Houston played a lineup of Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Sengun, and Adams. That’s one shooter, three 6-foot-11 centers, and two 6-foot-8 wings.
Just look at their lack of spacing with that combination.
“They’re not a typical modern NBA team,” Kerr said. “I think in terms of spreading you out, playing fast, shooting a million 3s, they’re kind of old school…It felt like 1997 out there to me.”
The Rockets scored just 13 points in the second quarter and the Warriors stretched their lead to 23 early in the second half. The only way Houston finally struck somewhat of an offensive rhythm was after a string of live-ball turnovers in the third quarter. Their bully-ball, jumbo lineups cut the deficit to four.
The Warriors steadied themselves, often playing through Butler, who values possessions as much as any player in the league. He’s obsessed with getting “shots on goal,” his soccer analogy for limiting turnovers. Butler canned a stepback 19-footer over Sengun with a minute left to ice his first official playoff game as a Warrior.
“Our confidence hasn’t wavered at all since I’ve been here, at least,” Butler said. “We know that we’re an extremely good team as long as we don’t turn the ball over and get shots on goal. We had a job to do, come in here and win one. We have a job to do [Wednesday], win Game 2.”
Before the series, the Warriors seemed very confident. To be fair, this is the team that has Green, who guaranteed a championship after two weeks of playing with Butler. And the team of Butler, who thinks any team he’s on has a chance to win a title and knows any team with Curry can.
But the Warriors’ positivity seemed more focused toward the matchup with Houston after four days of preparing for them. They knew what to expect after facing the Rockets five times in the regular season — games in which Houston threw several different strategies at them. They understood that if they took care of the ball and made it a half-court battle that they’d be in good shape. Game 1 proved them right.
When I told a staffer pregame that I’d made travel plans to come back for Game 5, he responded that I’d be the only one in Houston.
It probably won’t be a sweep. The Rockets, no matter how poorly they shot the ball on Sunday, are still capable of getting hot; they won’t shoot 20% from three every night.
But the Warriors know exactly what’s coming.