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As the WNBA season nears its halfway mark, the Valkyries have emerged one of the league’s biggest stories as the expansion team continues to make unexpected waves.
After impressing with a 4-1 homestand in late June, Golden State has since faltered on its road trip and now sits at 10-10 with just two games to go until the All-Star break. The team has counterbalanced momentum from playing in front of sellout crowds at Chase Center with inconsistency and less efficient performances on the road.
What will it take for the Valkyries to crash the postseason party? Here’s a look at what they’ve done well, what they must improve, and where they go from here.
What’s working well?
The Valkyries’ top-tier defense is undoubtedly a highlight from the first half of the season. At their peak, the WNBA’s newest team owned the No. 2 defensive rating in the league, but slipped to No. 4 after atypical defensive lapses — they allowed 30-plus points to Aces stars A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young — cost them Saturday’s rematch in Las Vegas. Head coach Natalie Nakase has adamantly repeated her vision for her team: to have the most disruptive defense in the league, day in and day out.
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The team’s showing in the defensive half court has offset some offensive struggles. The Valkyries are 10th in the WNBA in points per game and average the lowest field goal percentage in games won of any team. At the same time, the Valkyries have held their opponents to a 40.1% shooting clip — the lowest in the league.
Disruption and discipline under the rim in the battle for boards has also defined Golden State’s aggressive style of play. After 20 games, the Valkyries are tied for second in rebounds per game and, in their wins, they average 30.4 defensive boards, a league-high. Recent All-Star selection Kayla Thornton paces the team with 7.2 rebounds per game, while forwards Laeticia Amihere and Temi Fagbenle each add more than 5.5 per matchup.
The frontcourt is also expected to receive a substantial boost when 6-foot-4 center and expansion draft selection Iliana Rupert joins the team from France in the coming days.
Golden State has seen a meaningful uptick in its long-range shooting efficiency as the Valkyries shot a measly 26.7% from three-point range in their first 10 games, but improved to 34.4% in their last 10 games.
There’s no better point of reference for the Valkyries’ ability to adjust than their three matchups with the 2024 champions, the New York Liberty. After being held to 10 points in the opening quarter in a 95-67 blowout loss in their first meeting, the Valkyries bounced back to keep pace with the Liberty through all 40 minutes a couple nights later before they fell short in the final 90 seconds of play. When Sabrina Ionescu and co. traveled to San Francisco in late June, the Valkyries handled the Liberty nearly all night long, but came three points and eight seconds shy of pulling off an upset.
What’s going wrong?
Winning outside of the Chase Center has been the Valkyries’ greatest struggle. Seven of their 10 losses have taken place outside the Bay Area, including their two worst performances of the season thus far in a 28-point defeat against the Liberty in Brooklyn early on and their confidence-shaking loss against the Wings, a bottom-of-the-barrel team in Dallas. Nakase’s unit has won just three road games, and the only victory that’s taken place outside of California came against the Indiana Fever last week.
Beyond the absence of Valkyries’ “superpower” — as Nakase calls their home crowd — the team’s shortcomings on the road can be chalked up to a few factors.
On a couple of occasions, the first-year head coach has called out officiating and calls that she disagreed with.
After pointing out a fourth quarter whistle discrepancy following the Valkyries’ nine-point loss in Atlanta, Nakase echoed her frustration after Saturday’s narrow loss in Las Vegas: “To me, the inconsistency of the calls really affected us.”
The Valkyries average 21.5 free throw attempts inside their home arena and 18.7 away, which is only a slight dropoff.
A fluctuation in drawing and committing fouls isn’t the only reason for the team’s road struggles. There’s clearly a difference in the team’s defensive tenacity, too.
For all the praise the Valkyries’ defense has earned, it allows an average of 9.6 more points on the road than at home.
Furthermore, with the exception of Caitlin Clark, who the Valkyries held to 11 and 10-point performances in their two meetings, there is still a lot of room for improvement when it comes to neutralizing the league’s most prolific scorers.
The WNBA’s leading scorer, Napheesa Collier, has averaged 23.0 points against the Valkyries, and shot an efficient 8-of-11 from the field in their most recent matchup. Sparks guard Kelsey Plum has scored 25.7 points per game in three matchups while Liberty star Breanna Stewart has averaged 24.7 points per game against the Valkyries.
What about the playoff picture?
Ahead of the season, the Valkyries had the worst odds in the league of securing a playoff berth. Now, ESPN’s Power Index lists Golden State with a 55.6% chance of finishing the season in a top-eight position in the standings.
Eight of the WNBA’s 13 teams will make the playoffs and the Valkyries slipped behind the Fever and Mystics, who are both 11-10, this weekend. Golden State still sits at least three games ahead of each of the bottom four teams, but it’s early and the ninth-place Aces (10-11) showed they’re still a force when Wilson, a three-time MVP, is at her best.
For a playoff berth to become reality, one thing has to happen: the Valkyries must turn a corner and start winning on the road. A bout in Seattle this week will offer a telling test as to whether the Valkyries can overcome their issues when competing outside of Chase Center — they’ve beaten the 13-9 Storm twice now on their home court, but can this success translate to the Pacific Northwest?
Finishing .500 would likely give the Valkyries a strong shot of capturing a top-eight spot, but producing 12 more wins will require the type of defensive discipline and diligence the team has only consistently produced in front of its home crowd.
The Valkyries must help their cause during a softer portion of their schedule in July and August because their final seven regular-season games will bring a high-pressure sequence.
During that stretch, Golden State has two matchups against the 18-4 Lynx, a final hurrah against the 14-6 Liberty, and rematches with playoff challengers in the Mystics and Fever, beatable teams who have nevertheless managed to overtake the Valkyries in the standings.
In a season in which they’ve rewritten expectations inside Chase Center, it’s what they do away from San Francisco that will dictate how long they can keep their playoff hopes alive.