Want more ways to catch up on the latest in Bay Area sports? Sign up for the Section 415 email newsletter here and subscribe to the Section 415 podcast wherever you listen.

The Warriors’ affinity for Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t a secret. Any team with goals of contending for NBA titles would likewise yearn for Antetokounmpo, the 6-foot-11 forward who has finished in the top-five of MVP voting every season since 2018-19. 

And tea leaves suggest there’s a non-zero chance Antetokounmpo could be on the move, either this season or next summer. 

On Monday, the Milwaukee Bucks signed Alex Antetokounmpo to a two-way deal, becoming the first NBA team to employ three brothers and continuing to do anything possible to appease their two-time MVP. 

Bucks general manager Jon Horst acquired Jrue Holiday in 2020 and flipped him for more star power in Damian Lillard three years later. This offseason, Milwaukee dramatically waived-and-stretched Lillard — who’s recovering from a torn Achilles — to sign former Pacers center Myles Turner. Now, Alex joins Giannis and Thanasis as Bucks. 

In the immortal words of comedian Tim Robinson, I’d say that does the trick, that’ll do it. (opens in new tab)

The effort to keep one of the best players ever in one of the league’s smallest markets is commendable. But three straight first-round exits suggest that Antetokounmpo’s championship window in Milwaukee is closed, and leaguewide speculation that the superstar could ask out keeps escalating. The Bucks and Knicks reportedly discussed possible trades this summer (opens in new tab).  

“I want to be on a team that allows me and gives me a chance to win a championship,” Antetokounmpo said Sept. 29 at media day. “I think it’s a disservice to basketball, just to the game, to not want it to compete in a high level, to want your season to end in April.”

The Warriors, like any aspiring trade partner, would have to offer the type of package Milwaukee would be interested in — likely a combination of young, productive players, and a slew of future draft picks. 

Other factors can complicate a hypothetical trade of such magnitude, but a team’s trade assets create the baseline. Here’s how the Warriors’ assets might stack up against what other teams can offer the Bucks. 

• Their own first-round picks through 2032 (can trade up to four, plus swaps; 2030 is top-20 protected)

• Draymond Green

• Jimmy Butler

• Jonathan Kuminga (trade-eligible Jan. 15)

• Brandin Podziemski

Hypothetical offer: Kuminga, Podziemski, Green, Gui Santos, four first-round picks

Draft capital, plus Podziemski and Kuminga — depending on how Milwaukee views the fifth-year wing — would be the prizes of a trade from the Bucks’ perspective. It would be hard for the Warriors to say goodbye to Green, but that’d be the cost of pairing Steph Curry and Butler with Antetokounmpo. Golden State would be left with that elite trio, Al Horford, Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, and a bunch of minimum guys. 

Would that roster be closer to title contention than what Golden State currently has? In a Western Conference with the Thunder at the top, raising your ceiling is the name of the game. 

Why would Milwaukee be interested? Picks from the Warriors are appealing given where Curry and Butler are at in their careers. Podziemski isn’t a star-caliber return for Antetokounmpo, but he’s undeniably valuable. And maybe the Bucks believe Kuminga could blossom with more offensive opportunities. 

Golden State maintaining its future picks is massive. It’s a luxury teams such as the Lakers and Suns don’t have. But although they have assets, it’s not exactly a war chest. 

• Karl-Anthony Towns

• OG Anunoby

• Mikal Bridges (trade-eligible Feb. 1)

• One (or two) first-round picks

Hypothetical offer: Towns, Bridges, one first round pick for Antetokounmpo and Kyle Kuzma

The Knicks can only dangle two first-round picks at the end of the season, not during it, which is a significant factor. But given the Bucks’ own pick situation — they don’t control their own first rounder until 2031 — they may be interested in a return that helps them stay relevant. A package of Towns and Bridges, while also getting off Kuzma’s albatross contract, may accomplish that. 

But if Milwaukee is more inclined to acquire younger, cheaper players with more potential to go along with future picks to fuel a rebuild, Golden State could make a more appealing offer than New York. 

• Up to four tradeable first-round picks, including swaps with Atlanta in 2026, Atlanta’s unprotected 2027 pick, swap with Boston in 2028, swap with either Dallas or Minnesota in 2030, and a swap with Sacramento in 2031

• Stephon Castle

• Devin Vassell

• Dylan Harper

• Carter Bryant

Hypothetical offer: Stephon Castle, Carter Bryant, Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, 2027 Atlanta pick, 2028 swap with Boston, 2031 swap with Sacramento

Milwaukee would stay relevant (and much cheaper) now and spread its future destiny around the league, betting on Sacramento, Atlanta, and Boston to fail in the long-run. That future Kings pick in particular is a real blue-chip asset. The deal would effectively include five first-round picks, given Bryant (14th in 2025) and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle’s inclusions.

San Antonio would hit the gas on its team-building timeline by putting Antetokounmpo next to Victor Wembanyama, with De’Aaron Fox running point. San Antonio might have to add No. 2 pick Dylan Harper to the mix, which could be a difficult discussion. 

Without Harper, the package is still probably more impressive than what Golden State could offer. 

• Up to four tradeable first-round picks, including the Bucks’ in 2026 (swap for the most favorable between New Orleans and Milwaukee)

• Zaccharie Risacher

• Dyson Daniels

• Jalen Johnson

• Kristaps Porzingis

Hypothetical offer: Risacher, Porzingis, the Bucks’ 2026 first-round pick, 2029 ATL first-round pick, 2030 swap, 2031 ATL first-round pick

The Bucks might hang up the phone if Atlanta refuses to include Jalen Johnson or Dyson Daniels, but the idea here is for Atlanta to pair Trae Young with Antetokounmpo and those complementary players.

The offer may feel light, but the 2025 Rookie of the Year runner-up plus a potential lottery pick in a loaded 2026 class would be a jump-start to whatever rebuild Milwaukee has in mind. If the Bucks’ season goes south and they’re on pace to fall into the lottery, they’ll want their own 2026 pick back, and Atlanta is the only place to find it. Porzingis’ expiring $30 million contract would also help the Bucks start fresh in a post-Antetokounmpo era. 

The New Orleans Pelicans, notably, have the swap rights to the Bucks’ 2027 first. 

• 5 tradeable first-round picks (Houston has most of their own, plus the unprotected Phoenix first in 2027, the right to swap with Brooklyn in 2027, and a 2029 swap with either Dallas or Brooklyn)

• Amen Thompson

• Tari Eason

• Reed Sheppard

• Alperen Sengun

Hypothetical offer: Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Dorian Finney-Smith, three first-round picks for Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr.

Houston would have to jump through salary cap hoops to get a deal done, but if it decides the best course of action is to acquire Antetokounmpo, it has plenty of options to get creative. 

Sengun, a 23-year-old star center, would be as good as Milwaukee could do in a return. The Bucks might demand the Rockets include rising star Amen Thompson in a trade, which is where negotiations could get dicey. But Houston’s combination of young players and picks would make them a real player if they decide to get in the game. 

Even if Thompson is untouchable, a Houston package represents the best-of-both-worlds for Milwaukee: retool around a star young player while rebuilding with juicy lottery picks from other teams. An unprotected Suns pick or the right to swap with Brooklyn are arguably more enticing than even post-Steph Warriors picks. 

The Rockets already project to be an upper-echelon contender in the West this year, so making a run at Antetokounmpo seems unlikely. Even aging up seven years from Sengun to Antetokounmpo would be risky for Houston. But Kevin Durant, Antetokounmpo, and Thompson would be quite the core. 

• Up to nine tradeable first-round picks, including their own, the Clippers’ unprotected pick, and protected (from Philadelphia and Utah) in the 2026 draft; top-five protected Denver pick in and the right to swap with the Clippers in 2027; a swap with Dallas in 2028.

• Jalen Williams

• Chet Holmgren

• Isaiah Hartenstein

• Cason Wallace

• Lu Dort

• Aaron Wiggins

Hypothetical offer: Seven first-round picks, Hartenstein, Dort, Wallace

Would the Thunder really break up their young title team? Doubtful. But for Antetokounmpo, it’s easy to imagine any team doing their due diligence. 

Oklahoma City has the best young core in the NBA and probably the richest treasure chest of future draft capital. If Milwaukee is determined to accrue the most draft assets possible, Horst might give Oklahoma City a call. 

Poison pill provisions for Williams and Holmgren likely make a deal too difficult, though. Milwaukee would need one of them in return, and the logistics of that are nearly impossible during this season. In the offseason, after possibly winning back-to-back NBA championships, maybe circumstances could change. 

The Thunder entering the chat seems far-fetched. But they could trump the competition if they really wanted to, and if the timing’s right. 

• Up to three tradeable first-round picks, including Lakers’ 2029 first-round pick

• Anthony Davis

• Dereck Lively

• Cooper Flagg

• Daniel Gafford

• PJ Washington

Hypothetical offer: Davis, Lively, own 2026 first-round pick, 2029 Lakers’ first-round pick, own 2031 first-round pick

General manager Nico Harrison is the wild card of the NBA. Could he really go from trading Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis (and picking up No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg) to dealing for Antetokounmpo? 

If the Bucks want to stay relevant as they deal with life without their own picks, they could turn Antetokounmpo into Davis. Dallas would streamline its frontcourt and raise their ceiling in the process, for the cost of promising young center Lively and future draft capital. 

It’d be a stunning all-in move for a bizarre Mavericks franchise. But if there are Giannis sweepstakes, the Warriors would hope the Mavericks don’t join in.