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When Stephen Curry has a cold, the Warriors’ entire organization coughs and wheezes. When he’s tired, everybody in the locker room yawns and stretches a little bit.
And when it’s time to give Curry a very needed sick day — as will happen for Wednesday night’s game in Sacramento — it’s worthwhile to re-analyze how things are going and maybe re-assess how the Warriors will handle the remaining 74 games of the regular season and whatever comes next.
Which is exactly what the Warriors’ brain trust have been doing over the last few days, after the dismal 0-2 road trip last week heading into Tuesday night’s just-gut-through-it 118-107 victory over the Phoenix Suns at Chase Center and pointing toward the closing half of this demanding 17-game stretch to open the season.
Boiling it down: The Old Warriors are now 5-3 and in OK shape; can they stay above .500 (realistically, 10-7 or 9-8) through their Nov. 21 game in Miami to keep their postseason plausibility sky high?
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And while also making sure to that Curry, Jimmy Butler (who missed the second half on Tuesday with a back issue), Draymond Green, and Al Horford (held out Tuesday for rest) aren’t pre-Hall of Fame zombies by then?
We shall see on all of that. Even if the Warriors falter dramatically over the next few weeks, of course, there will be plenty of season left to recover, falter again, recover again, and on and on.
But it’s clear that Kerr and the other team leaders have been extremely wary of this opening stretch for a while now. How they play it from here is important largely because they’ve signaled how important it is as a staging ground and survival test.
If they get through it intact and near the top of the West, they might be good for the rest of the season. If they’re a bit broken by early December, that might be an indication that there will be some even shakier times ahead.
Let’s look at some of the biggest themes of this season-segment
The Golden Vets will be sitting more starting immediately
Curry, Draymond, and Butler have started every game of the season so far and that obviously will change in a major way — which Kerr was underlining even before we all experienced Curry gasping to finish Tuesday’s game and sniffling through his presser.
Both Curry and Kerr said that they hoped a solid rest day would be the tonic to get Curry ready for Friday’s game in Denver — a rival the Warriors definitely want to keep an edge on after the overtime victory at Chase last month.
After that comes a home game Sunday against Indiana. Then keep your eye on the following six-game, nine-day road trip to finish this gauntlet — a game at Oklahoma City on Tuesday then a game at San Antonio the next day and another game against the Spurs on Friday, a game in New Orleans on Sunday the 16th, and closing with a back-to-back in Orlando on Tuesday and Wednesday in Miami.
I’m not in the Warriors’ health meetings, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Curry, Draymond, Butler, and Horford all miss two or three of these next nine games — maybe together, maybe split apart. And if Butler’s back is still bothering him through this period, he will assuredly miss more than that.
No doubt, the Warriors never want to go through what they experienced last week in Milwaukee and Indiana, when they played their mainstays, their mainstays looked spent, and they lost miserably. Lose-lose … and-lose.
We can all speculate about what it means for the playoffs when their late-30s guys are all somewhat worn down this early in the season, but there also are no back-to-backs in the postseason and other teams get injuries and get tired, too.
Obviously, the Warriors are built for late April and May and to moderate their physical and mental toll in the months before then. We’re about to see how moderate this gets.
“It’s not rocket science; if you’re able to play, play,” Curry said Tuesday night. “If something pops up, a sickness or something that’s ailing — I know Jimmy’s … I think it was his back — you want to be cautious. We’re trying to build momentum. Those two games on the road hurt a little bit, but we’re all just collaborating.”
Can the Warriors go 4-5 or at worst 3-6 through this stretch, avoid exhausting their mainstays, and remain right around .500 or a little bit better until they can get a breather starting with a five-game homestand starting Friday Nov. 21 against Portland.
That’s the big Warriors TBD of the early season.
De’Anthony Melton’s return will feel like a calvary call
The Warriors can’t expect too much from Melton, who is coming off an ACL tear suffered while they were counting on him more than a bit last season.
But Melton’s definitely ramping up toward a return; he looked like he was getting in some serious work on the practice court before Tuesday’s game. The Warriors’ next scheduled official update for Melton is due — guess when — Nov. 19, the day of the last game of the long road trip.
Melton’s proven combo-guard skill set should help the Warriors in several vital aspects. He can take some of the ball-handling duties from Curry and Brandin Podziemski, he can serve as a part-time offensive initiator when Curry and/or Butler are out of the game or resting entirely, he can defend some of the quicker guards who lately have really hurt the Warriors with penetration, and he can be a scorer alongside Podziemski in the non-Curry minutes.
Wait, that already sounds like expecting too much from a player who has missed most of the previous two seasons. Oops.
But with Podziemski’s shooting still a very up-and-down situation, with Gary Payton II getting a slow start (DNP-coach’s decision on Tuesday), and with the Warriors absolutely not wanting to press the Steph-Save-Us-Please button over and over… Melton could be a huge December vitamin boost.
Can the Warriors get Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody going on court together?
The latest on the perpetual either/or see-saw for these two 2021 lottery classmates: Moody moved into the starting lineup and flourished during the run after Butler was acquired last season; but he got hurt in camp this season and Kuminga jumped into the starting lineup and took off, while Moody’s minutes have been cut down.
But Moody came out firing off the bench on Tuesday, made five of his eight three-point attempts on his way to 24 points (in 34 minutes), defended Devin Booker well, and closed the game — while, not coincidentally, Kuminga was out of the closing lineup for the first time this season in a tight game.
“Moses was the player of the game tonight — his defense on Booker and his shooting was fantastic,” Kerr said Tuesday. “He’s just found his groove now after missing most of training camp with the ankle. So a tough start to the season for him, mainly because we just found a different starting lineup and a different rotation while he was out and we were doing pretty well. But he’s forcing his way back into the mix for sure.”
At some point Moody and Kuminga playing together should work, right? They’re the Warriors’ best two young wings — maybe their best two non-35-or-older guys. They should be at least be adequate on the court together and there should be nights when they’re more than adequate.
But they’ve only played 30 minutes together so far this season with a startlingly bad -24.8 net rating. Contrastingly, Kuminga has played a team-high 222 minutes with Curry and the duo has a +2.8 rating (which, by the way, probably isn’t high enough to keep giving Kuminga all these Curry minutes over everybody else). Kuminga’s also played 72 minutes with Quinten Post, putting up a +17.3 net rating.
Meanwhile, Moody’s played 94 minutes with Podziemski, producing a solid +17.7 net rating, and 68 minutes with Butler, putting up a +22.2 net rating.
Moody’s a better outside shooter and more consistent; Kuminga’s a better driver and finisher and is much more athletic. Moody got a three-year, $39-million contract two offseasons ago when he and Kuminga were both eligible for rookie extensions. Kuminga had to negotiate hard through last offseason to get his two-year, $48-million deal that is guaranteed for $23.5 million and might get traded in a few months or next offseason.
They’ve both played all over the depth chart. They both have had very good stretches and some less-than-stellar stretches.
But it doesn’t maximize either — or the Warriors’ roster — when it’s one-or-the-other and that's it. Especially when it’s time to get the older stars some significant rest and for the Warriors to try to survive this grueling opening stretch.