Kevin Truong

Sarah Wright

Based on social media rumblings, it seems like there’s a big appetite for converting now-empty San Francisco office buildings into housing. Using the Covid-induced vacancies to help solve the city’s housing affordability crisis and meet state mandates to plan for more than 80,000 new units appears to be a no-brainer.

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<p>Based on social media rumblings, it seems like there’s a big appetite for converting now-empty San Francisco office buildings into housing. Using the Covid-induced vacancies to help solve the city’s housing affordability crisis and meet state mandates to plan for more than 80,000 new units appears to be a no-brainer.</p>

But while San Francisco’s downtown core appears rife with opportunity, with <a href="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/San-Francisco-Office-Figures-Q1-2022-FINAL_O4v7.pdf">a record 24%</a> of office space currently vacant—particularly within San Francisco’s bread-and-butter industry, tech—the city’s planning department currently has no pending applications for downtown office-to-housing conversions.

<p>But while San Francisco’s downtown core appears rife with opportunity, with <a href="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/San-Francisco-Office-Figures-Q1-2022-FINAL_O4v7.pdf">a record 24%</a> of office space currently vacant—particularly within San Francisco’s bread-and-butter industry, tech—the city’s planning department currently has no pending applications for downtown office-to-housing conversions.</p>

Turning offices into homes may seem like an obvious solution to the city’s housing crisis—<a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/elon-musk-twitter-san-francisco-hq-takeover/">Elon Musk even jumped into the fray</a> with a (presumably tongue-in-cheek) pitch to turn Twitter’s headquarters into a homeless shelter—but longtime housing developer Oz Erickson cautions that it’s not so simple.&nbsp;

<p>Turning offices into homes may seem like an obvious solution to the city’s housing crisis—<a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/elon-musk-twitter-san-francisco-hq-takeover/">Elon Musk even jumped into the fray</a> with a (presumably tongue-in-cheek) pitch to turn Twitter’s headquarters into a homeless shelter—but longtime housing developer Oz Erickson cautions that it’s not so simple.&nbsp;</p>

<strong>Behind the Scenes of a Successful Conversion&nbsp;</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-behind-the-scenes-of-a-successful-conversion"><strong>Behind the Scenes of a Successful Conversion&nbsp;</strong></h2>


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<h2 id="h-behind-the-scenes-of-a-successful-conversion"><strong>Behind the Scenes of a Successful Conversion&nbsp;</strong></h2>

Erickson is chair of the San Francisco-based development firm Emerald Fund. His company’s 400-foot, 418-unit tower at 100 Van Ness is the most significant project in the last decade to successfully convert downtown office space into housing.&nbsp;

<p>Erickson is chair of the San Francisco-based development firm Emerald Fund. His company’s 400-foot, 418-unit tower at 100 Van Ness is the most significant project in the last decade to successfully convert downtown office space into housing.&nbsp;</p>

“It takes a really special building and you have to be willing to give up the current rent of the office space,” said Erickson. “We had an excellent skeleton and it was still quite costly, but way cheaper then than it would be now. It’s hard for me to believe anything pencils nowadays.”

<p>“It takes a really special building and you have to be willing to give up the current rent of the office space,” said Erickson. “We had an excellent skeleton and it was still quite costly, but way cheaper then than it would be now. It’s hard for me to believe anything pencils nowadays.”</p>

Erickson has built thousands of units across the city over his career, but the conversion posed its fair share of unique challenges. For one, the development team had to remove the massive stone facades that encased the former headquarters of the California State Automobile Association.&nbsp;

<p>Erickson has built thousands of units across the city over his career, but the conversion posed its fair share of unique challenges. For one, the development team had to remove the massive stone facades that encased the former headquarters of the California State Automobile Association.&nbsp;</p>

On the plus side for Erickson, the building’s relatively high standard of construction made it an attractive candidate for conversion. And, by reusing an existing structure, the Emerald Fund was able to skirt height limits for residential buildings and fit more units into the project, which raised their profit margin.

<p>On the plus side for Erickson, the building’s relatively high standard of construction made it an attractive candidate for conversion. And, by reusing an existing structure, the Emerald Fund was able to skirt height limits for residential buildings and fit more units into the project, which raised their profit margin.</p>

<strong>Where’s the City in All This?</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Where’s the City in All This?</strong></h2>


<h2><strong>Where’s the City in All This?</strong></h2>

When it comes to conversion projects, it’s not the city’s planning process that’s getting in the way. Dan Sider, chief of staff at the San Francisco Planning Department, said a conversion with no complicated exemptions—an optimistic but not unrealistic scenario—wouldn’t even require a planning hearing and could take as little as three to six months to secure approvals. And even those requiring exemptions don’t face many added hurdles.

<p>When it comes to conversion projects, it’s not the city’s planning process that’s getting in the way. Dan Sider, chief of staff at the San Francisco Planning Department, said a conversion with no complicated exemptions—an optimistic but not unrealistic scenario—wouldn’t even require a planning hearing and could take as little as three to six months to secure approvals. And even those requiring exemptions don’t face many added hurdles.</p>

“The process through our office is fairly straightforward,” Sider said. “The controls are actually set up very well to accommodate housing in the downtown core.”

<p>“The process through our office is fairly straightforward,” Sider said. “The controls are actually set up very well to accommodate housing in the downtown core.”</p>

Jason Ward, a RAND Corporation economist who has studied the feasibility of commercial-to-residential conversions also pointed to an added advantage, particularly in a market like San Francisco: less community opposition.&nbsp;

<p>Jason Ward, a RAND Corporation economist who has studied the feasibility of commercial-to-residential conversions also pointed to an added advantage, particularly in a market like San Francisco: less community opposition.&nbsp;</p>

“It’s a lesser issue than we’re going to knock down these single-family homes and build a 60-unit building,” Ward said. “It’s already there, it usually has parking and it looks more or less the same as it did before.”

<p>“It’s a lesser issue than we’re going to knock down these single-family homes and build a 60-unit building,” Ward said. “It’s already there, it usually has parking and it looks more or less the same as it did before.”</p>

Case in point, developers of The Pacific in Pacific Heights were able to build a 76-unit condo building in a neighborhood with a history of anti-development activism by adapting a former medical office building.&nbsp;

<p>Case in point, developers of The Pacific in Pacific Heights were able to build a 76-unit condo building in a neighborhood with a history of anti-development activism by adapting a former medical office building.&nbsp;</p>

<strong>Why Aren’t Conversions Happening?</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Why Aren’t Conversions Happening?</strong></h2>


<h2><strong>Why Aren’t Conversions Happening?</strong></h2>

Here’s the big “why not” when it comes to office-to-housing conversions: Gutting a building and rebuilding the inside as housing is expensive, especially in San Francisco and especially while construction costs are high.&nbsp;

<p>Here’s the big “why not” when it comes to office-to-housing conversions: Gutting a building and rebuilding the inside as housing is expensive, especially in San Francisco and especially while construction costs are high.&nbsp;</p>

Asking rents for downtown commercial leases have dropped around 15% from pre-pandemic peaks, but haven’t dipped further because of the relatively long lease terms signed by commercial tenants, as well as market optimism that the return to office will continue at a gradual pace.&nbsp;

<p>Asking rents for downtown commercial leases have dropped around 15% from pre-pandemic peaks, but haven’t dipped further because of the relatively long lease terms signed by commercial tenants, as well as market optimism that the return to office will continue at a gradual pace.&nbsp;</p>

Essentially, the city and the market aren&#8217;t convinced that empty offices downtown are here to stay.

<p>Essentially, the city and the market aren't convinced that empty offices downtown are here to stay.</p>

<p>Essentially, the city and the market aren&#8217;t convinced that empty offices downtown are here to stay.</p>

“People would need to believe that office uses are going away,” said Louis Cornejo, president and CEO of Urban Group Real Estate. “You talk to 10 people you get 10 different comments. Are we really going to take a chance on our economy based on: ‘Well, it worked for a year or two?’”&nbsp;

<p>“People would need to believe that office uses are going away,” said Louis Cornejo, president and CEO of Urban Group Real Estate. “You talk to 10 people you get 10 different comments. Are we really going to take a chance on our economy based on: ‘Well, it worked for a year or two?’”&nbsp;</p>

What gets built and what doesn’t comes down to a calculation of dollars and cents. The first issue that’s nearly always raised in discussions about office conversions is seismic retrofitting, which can quickly multiply construction costs.&nbsp;

<p>What gets built and what doesn’t comes down to a calculation of dollars and cents. The first issue that’s nearly always raised in discussions about office conversions is seismic retrofitting, which can quickly multiply construction costs.&nbsp;</p>

Older buildings would have to be gutted entirely. As compared to office space, housing requires more kitchens and bathrooms—and the plumbing and power that comes with them. And then there’s city code that requires that every apartment look out onto an open area and include access to open space like a deck or a rooftop. In the case of 100 Van Ness, the designers added a common rooftop for residents to use. These modifications, Sider said, can be difficult to achieve.

<p>Older buildings would have to be gutted entirely. As compared to office space, housing requires more kitchens and bathrooms—and the plumbing and power that comes with them. And then there’s city code that requires that every apartment look out onto an open area and include access to open space like a deck or a rooftop. In the case of 100 Van Ness, the designers added a common rooftop for residents to use. These modifications, Sider said, can be difficult to achieve.</p>

“Most modern office buildings would require a tremendous amount of work,” Sider said.

<p>“Most modern office buildings would require a tremendous amount of work,” Sider said.</p>

In some cases, adaptive reuse projects turn into money pits as developers open up the building and find structural issues, environmental damage and other challenges in bringing older buildings up to code. The <a href="http://www.ladowntownnews.com/news/as-rents-soar-brockman-aims-for-luxury-market/article_9fc8af34-8b40-11e1-ad29-0019bb2963f4.html">Brockman Lofts conversion</a> in downtown Los Angeles, for example, saw its budget balloon from $16 million to $40 million and took seven years to complete.&nbsp;

<p>In some cases, adaptive reuse projects turn into money pits as developers open up the building and find structural issues, environmental damage and other challenges in bringing older buildings up to code. The <a href="http://www.ladowntownnews.com/news/as-rents-soar-brockman-aims-for-luxury-market/article_9fc8af34-8b40-11e1-ad29-0019bb2963f4.html">Brockman Lofts conversion</a> in downtown Los Angeles, for example, saw its budget balloon from $16 million to $40 million and took seven years to complete.&nbsp;</p>

Trey Clark, the head of U.S. investments for Chinese developer Vanke, said the conversion process to residences also leads to less usable square footage because of the addition of corridors and other living spaces.&nbsp;

<p>Trey Clark, the head of U.S. investments for Chinese developer Vanke, said the conversion process to residences also leads to less usable square footage because of the addition of corridors and other living spaces.&nbsp;</p>

<strong>The Other Case for Conversion</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Other Case for Conversion</strong></h2>


<h2><strong>The Other Case for Conversion</strong></h2>

But the considerations of how and whether to rebuild downtown should not be strictly financial, and there are clear benefits to such projects beyond housing, said RAND’s Ward. There is also an environmental and social case for adaptive reuse projects that should be weighed by policymakers thinking through how—or if–they should incentivize these projects, he said.&nbsp;

<p>But the considerations of how and whether to rebuild downtown should not be strictly financial, and there are clear benefits to such projects beyond housing, said RAND’s Ward. There is also an environmental and social case for adaptive reuse projects that should be weighed by policymakers thinking through how—or if–they should incentivize these projects, he said.&nbsp;</p>

These include the environmental benefits of constructing more housing closer to job centers and the desire to activate the city’s downtown core into a more vibrant neighborhood with a greater mix of uses.&nbsp;

<p>These include the environmental benefits of constructing more housing closer to job centers and the desire to activate the city’s downtown core into a more vibrant neighborhood with a greater mix of uses.&nbsp;</p>

In order to tip the scales toward conversions, experts say developers would need to buy into a new vision of the future of downtown in the post-Covid world. It doesn’t appear the city is pivoting in that direction. Over the past few months, Mayor London Breed has made <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/return-to-office-sf-london-breed-google/">bringing workers back downtown</a> a key part of her economic recovery strategy.&nbsp;

<p>In order to tip the scales toward conversions, experts say developers would need to buy into a new vision of the future of downtown in the post-Covid world. It doesn’t appear the city is pivoting in that direction. Over the past few months, Mayor London Breed has made <a href="https://sfstandard.com/business/return-to-office-sf-london-breed-google/">bringing workers back downtown</a> a key part of her economic recovery strategy.&nbsp;</p>

“In a way the effect of Covid on real estate prices has yet to fully play out. It’s going to be a while until we see what happens when people start trying to sell these buildings off or if they can’t bring in long-term leases,” Ward said. “In the long term these things will make a more favorable environment for (conversions) but it hasn’t happened as quickly as I might have expected initially.”

<p>“In a way the effect of Covid on real estate prices has yet to fully play out. It’s going to be a while until we see what happens when people start trying to sell these buildings off or if they can’t bring in long-term leases,” Ward said. “In the long term these things will make a more favorable environment for (conversions) but it hasn’t happened as quickly as I might have expected initially.”</p>

<strong>Some Spaces are Better Than Others</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Some Spaces are Better Than Others</strong></h2>


<h2><strong>Some Spaces are Better Than Others</strong></h2>

So what structures would be the best candidates for conversion? Class A office spaces like Salesforce Tower and the Transamerica Pyramid are generally considered to be out of the question because of market demand and the high existing revenue they bring in.&nbsp;

<p>So what structures would be the best candidates for conversion? Class A office spaces like Salesforce Tower and the Transamerica Pyramid are generally considered to be out of the question because of market demand and the high existing revenue they bring in.&nbsp;</p>

That leaves lower-rise, older and less valuable offices with ideal characteristics like modern seismic safety engineering, repetitive floorplates and a narrow and rectangular form that makes it easier to meet light and air requirements for housing.&nbsp;&nbsp;

<p>That leaves lower-rise, older and less valuable offices with ideal characteristics like modern seismic safety engineering, repetitive floorplates and a narrow and rectangular form that makes it easier to meet light and air requirements for housing.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

While it hasn’t been tried yet in San Francisco, Sider said perhaps the best projects for office-to-housing conversions in terms of design may be group housing—dorm-like buildings where residents share kitchens and common space—because their layouts mirror many current office plans and expensive elements, like plumbing and electricity, may not have to be reconfigured entirely.&nbsp;

<p>While it hasn’t been tried yet in San Francisco, Sider said perhaps the best projects for office-to-housing conversions in terms of design may be group housing—dorm-like buildings where residents share kitchens and common space—because their layouts mirror many current office plans and expensive elements, like plumbing and electricity, may not have to be reconfigured entirely.&nbsp;</p>

“That works more from an infrastructure perspective—whether it pencils is another question,” Sider said.

<p>“That works more from an infrastructure perspective—whether it pencils is another question,” Sider said.</p>

Those projects tend to be affordable housing. That’s specifically where San Francisco is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/city-hall/housing-shell-game-supes-latest-actions-set-to-slow-new-housing-as-state-mandate-looms/">falling behind in its state housing target</a>. But Sider said it’s even less likely developers would pursue affordable housing projects for costly conversions because they tend to be less profitable.

<p>Those projects tend to be affordable housing. That’s specifically where San Francisco is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/politics/city-hall/housing-shell-game-supes-latest-actions-set-to-slow-new-housing-as-state-mandate-looms/">falling behind in its state housing target</a>. But Sider said it’s even less likely developers would pursue affordable housing projects for costly conversions because they tend to be less profitable.</p>

<strong>Setting an Example in SoCal</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Setting an Example in SoCal</strong></h2>


<h2><strong>Setting an Example in SoCal</strong></h2>

For a model of how it could promote these sorts of projects, San Francisco would do well to look south. Los Angeles passed an Adaptive Reuse Ordinance in 1999 that was responsible for helping to build some 14,000 units in the city’s downtown core over two decades by streamlining approvals, removing minimum parking requirements and putting into place alternative building codes.&nbsp;

<p>For a model of how it could promote these sorts of projects, San Francisco would do well to look south. Los Angeles passed an Adaptive Reuse Ordinance in 1999 that was responsible for helping to build some 14,000 units in the city’s downtown core over two decades by streamlining approvals, removing minimum parking requirements and putting into place alternative building codes.&nbsp;</p>

Ward noted a few structural factors that set Los Angeles up for a massive wave of conversions, including a ready supply of largely moribund and distressed commercial buildings downtown left by companies moving to more newly constructed buildings.

<p>Ward noted a few structural factors that set Los Angeles up for a massive wave of conversions, including a ready supply of largely moribund and distressed commercial buildings downtown left by companies moving to more newly constructed buildings.</p>

The rules put in place by the city, including relaxed egress standards in the case of fires and <a href="https://codelibrary.amlegal.com/codes/los_angeles/latest/lamc/0-0-0-179725">loosened building requirements</a> around seismic retrofitting, meant “a lot of buildings that would have been unaddressable became more feasible,” he added.&nbsp;

<p>The rules put in place by the city, including relaxed egress standards in the case of fires and <a href="https://codelibrary.amlegal.com/codes/los_angeles/latest/lamc/0-0-0-179725">loosened building requirements</a> around seismic retrofitting, meant “a lot of buildings that would have been unaddressable became more feasible,” he added.&nbsp;</p>

Since then, Los Angeles has proposed an even easier building process to open up more candidates for conversion, removing minimum and average unit size requirements and even exempting certain eligible projects from additional fees. But, like in San Francisco, costs are the biggest barrier.&nbsp;

<p>Since then, Los Angeles has proposed an even easier building process to open up more candidates for conversion, removing minimum and average unit size requirements and even exempting certain eligible projects from additional fees. But, like in San Francisco, costs are the biggest barrier.&nbsp;</p>

As a point of comparison, the average per unit cost in Los Angeles for new housing is around $580,000, one of the highest marks in the state. In San Francisco, that number has breached $700,000.

<p>As a point of comparison, the average per unit cost in Los Angeles for new housing is around $580,000, one of the highest marks in the state. In San Francisco, that number has breached $700,000.</p>

“These conversions are such a potentially risky process financially that seeing them flourish is probably going to require San Francisco to adopt policies like Los Angeles’ to reduce the uncertainty around costs and timelines,” Ward said.&nbsp;

<p>“These conversions are such a potentially risky process financially that seeing them flourish is probably going to require San Francisco to adopt policies like Los Angeles’ to reduce the uncertainty around costs and timelines,” Ward said.&nbsp;</p>

<strong>Slow-Going State Solutions</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Slow-Going State Solutions</strong></h2>


<h2><strong>Slow-Going State Solutions</strong></h2>

Clark, of Chinese developer Vanke, pitched a California version of New York’s 421a affordable housing program as another potential incentive to promote housing development. The policy provides a property tax exemption that lasts for 15 to 25 years to developers who build multifamily residential housing.

<p>Clark, of Chinese developer Vanke, pitched a California version of New York’s 421a affordable housing program as another potential incentive to promote housing development. The policy provides a property tax exemption that lasts for 15 to 25 years to developers who build multifamily residential housing.</p>

There is some work being done at the state level. In California, state officials are trying to ease the pathway for turning underused commercial property into housing.&nbsp;

<p>There is some work being done at the state level. In California, state officials are trying to ease the pathway for turning underused commercial property into housing.&nbsp;</p>

Legislation introduced by East Bay State Sen. Bob Wieckowski, would essentially enshrine Los Angeles’ adaptive reuse policy into state law and prohibit a city or county from imposing various requirements on an adaptive reuse project. The bill, <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB1369">SB 1369</a>, also includes a provision to require statewide building standards to facilitate the development of adaptive reuse projects.

<p>Legislation introduced by East Bay State Sen. Bob Wieckowski, would essentially enshrine Los Angeles’ adaptive reuse policy into state law and prohibit a city or county from imposing various requirements on an adaptive reuse project. The bill, <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB1369">SB 1369</a>, also includes a provision to require statewide building standards to facilitate the development of adaptive reuse projects.</p>

Gov. Gavin Newsom also added $100 million in his proposed 2022-23 state budget for adaptive reuse incentive grants that would remove the cost barriers to repurposing commercial and other buildings as housing, with a particular focus on downtown areas.&nbsp;

<p>Gov. Gavin Newsom also added $100 million in his proposed 2022-23 state budget for adaptive reuse incentive grants that would remove the cost barriers to repurposing commercial and other buildings as housing, with a particular focus on downtown areas.&nbsp;</p>

Sider said the city’s “hands are tied” on most of the controls that could make building cheaper—like tax incentives or abatements—due to Proposition 13, an amendment to the state constitution that reassesses property when new construction happens. But even if the state were to help, Sider said, government intervention can only go so far.&nbsp;

<p>Sider said the city’s “hands are tied” on most of the controls that could make building cheaper—like tax incentives or abatements—due to Proposition 13, an amendment to the state constitution that reassesses property when new construction happens. But even if the state were to help, Sider said, government intervention can only go so far.&nbsp;</p>

“This is one of those things where I think the government has limited powers to cause this to happen,” Sider said. “It really is a function of the dollars and cents here. And construction costs and building typologies are not supportive, at least right now, of these types of conversions.”

<p>“This is one of those things where I think the government has limited powers to cause this to happen,” Sider said. “It really is a function of the dollars and cents here. And construction costs and building typologies are not supportive, at least right now, of these types of conversions.”</p>

<strong>Necessity Breeds Invention</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Necessity Breeds Invention</strong></h2>


<h2><strong>Necessity Breeds Invention</strong></h2>

If the city’s hands are truly tied in controlling building costs, as they say, there may be an opportunity for intrepid entrepreneurs to take on the challenge.&nbsp;

<p>If the city’s hands are truly tied in controlling building costs, as they say, there may be an opportunity for intrepid entrepreneurs to take on the challenge.&nbsp;</p>

San Francisco seed-stage startup Kit Switch is aiming to lower the construction costs for conversion projects by pre-building flexible panels with kitchen and bathroom appliances for quick assembly on site. CEO Armelle Coutant said the inspiration behind Kit Switch was to enable existing structures to be more adaptable to changing needs.&nbsp;

<p>San Francisco seed-stage startup Kit Switch is aiming to lower the construction costs for conversion projects by pre-building flexible panels with kitchen and bathroom appliances for quick assembly on site. CEO Armelle Coutant said the inspiration behind Kit Switch was to enable existing structures to be more adaptable to changing needs.&nbsp;</p>

The company offers upfront pricing for its kits, which cut down on potential cost uncertainties and overruns. It is currently working with Habitat for Humanity in Los Angeles to explore the possibility of turning smaller commercial buildings into affordable housing using the company’s components.&nbsp;

<p>The company offers upfront pricing for its kits, which cut down on potential cost uncertainties and overruns. It is currently working with Habitat for Humanity in Los Angeles to explore the possibility of turning smaller commercial buildings into affordable housing using the company’s components.&nbsp;</p>

Kit Switch has yet to have a project in San Francisco, but said they are in conversations with the city’s planning department on how it can potentially utilize their products. As the city stays in its holding pattern waiting to see how Covid and the market shake out, Coutant and her colleagues are building for a future they see as inevitable.

<p>Kit Switch has yet to have a project in San Francisco, but said they are in conversations with the city’s planning department on how it can potentially utilize their products. As the city stays in its holding pattern waiting to see how Covid and the market shake out, Coutant and her colleagues are building for a future they see as inevitable.</p>

“We are at an inflection point in terms of adaptive reuse, especially emerging from the pandemic as people realize this is an important strategy for the Covid-19 economic recovery and for addressing our housing deficit,” Coutant said.

<p>“We are at an inflection point in terms of adaptive reuse, especially emerging from the pandemic as people realize this is an important strategy for the Covid-19 economic recovery and for addressing our housing deficit,” Coutant said.</p>

Turning downtown offices into housing isn’t the solution you think it is

Josh Koehn

The kids apparently went to bed, because Garry Tan is back to war. It’s nearly midnight, and he’s been firing off tweets with the precision of a sawed-off shotgun. Hot takes and ragetweets may be the coin of the realm in Elon Musk’s new world order, but even by social media standards, Tan’s metabolism for vitriol and the breadth of his disdain for what ails San Francisco is staggering.

<p>The kids apparently went to bed, because Garry Tan is back to war. It’s nearly midnight, and he’s been firing off tweets with the precision of a sawed-off shotgun. Hot takes and ragetweets may be the coin of the realm in Elon Musk’s new world order, but even by social media standards, Tan’s metabolism for vitriol and the breadth of his disdain for what ails San Francisco is staggering.</p>

Over the course of two hours, the CEO of startup incubator Y Combinator personally attacks or retweets criticism of “extremist judges,” whom he accuses of emboldening criminals with the help of local media; any supervisor who dares to oppose bonuses to hire more cops; Nancy Pelosi and lawmakers concerned about the safety of autonomous vehicles; education activists who want to change math curriculum in public schools; venture capitalists who are “evil” to startup founders; “decels” who want to pump the brakes on technological progress; Apple’s monopoly on apps; YouTube censors; and last, but certainly not least, NIMBYs.

<p>Over the course of two hours, the CEO of startup incubator Y Combinator personally attacks or retweets criticism of “extremist judges,” whom he accuses of emboldening criminals with the help of local media; any supervisor who dares to oppose bonuses to hire more cops; Nancy Pelosi and lawmakers concerned about the safety of autonomous vehicles; education activists who want to change math curriculum in public schools; venture capitalists who are “evil” to startup founders; “decels” who want to pump the brakes on technological progress; Apple’s monopoly on apps; YouTube censors; and last, but certainly not least, NIMBYs.</p>

This behavior would be less remarkable if Tan, 42, weren’t a centimillionaire and one of the most influential people in tech. He boasts 362,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter) and a quarter-million subscribers to his YouTube channel. He has also poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into local elections since 2021.&nbsp;

<p>This behavior would be less remarkable if Tan, 42, weren’t a centimillionaire and one of the most influential people in tech. He boasts 362,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter) and a quarter-million subscribers to his YouTube channel. He has also poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into local elections since 2021.&nbsp;</p>

Tan’s critics have attempted to brand him as a toxic tech bro who lacks empathy and political chops, but he’s more than a malcontent with a big microphone. In just a few years, Tan, a registered Democrat, has fashioned himself into San Francisco’s preeminent political pitbull, an attack dog with a taste for progressives.

<p>Tan’s critics have attempted to brand him as a toxic tech bro who lacks empathy and political chops, but he’s more than a malcontent with a big microphone. In just a few years, Tan, a registered Democrat, has fashioned himself into San Francisco’s preeminent political pitbull, an attack dog with a taste for progressives.</p>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump pushed SF to the hard left and with it came the grift: ideological purity enforced by the most extreme viewpoints that must be adhered to with perfection</p>&mdash; Garry Tan (@garrytan) <a href="https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1704358928694546925?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 20, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“One thing that I’m starting to realize about myself is I always look for chaos,” Tan said in an interview this month at Y Combinator’s cavernous headquarters, a former power station in the city’s Dogpatch neighborhood. “Most people want certainty. They want to feel comfortable. And then the true founders, they want to find chaos, and they want to turn chaos into order.”

<p>“One thing that I’m starting to realize about myself is I always look for chaos,” Tan said in an interview this month at Y Combinator’s cavernous headquarters, a former power station in the city’s Dogpatch neighborhood. “Most people want certainty. They want to feel comfortable. And then the true founders, they want to find chaos, and they want to turn chaos into order.”</p>

Tan, who lives with his wife and two young sons in Noe Valley, also wants San Franciscans to join him in picking up their pitchforks come election time in November 2024. The city is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/18/san-francisco-ties-record-for-most-overdose-deaths-in-a-month/">on pace to smash its own record for drug overdose deaths</a>, more than 4,000 people are sleeping on the streets every night, and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/18/san-francisco-bay-area-crime-car-break-ins-burglaries-bipping-bip-city-bipped-bippin/">property crime</a> and quality-of-life issues have made San Francisco a national punchline. With businesses fleeing and vacant Downtown towers collecting dust, the city could be creeping toward a fiscal crisis.

San Francisco ties its own record for most drug overdose deaths in a month

Why is San Francisco called Bip City?

<p>Tan, who lives with his wife and two young sons in Noe Valley, also wants San Franciscans to join him in picking up their pitchforks come election time in November 2024. The city is <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/18/san-francisco-ties-record-for-most-overdose-deaths-in-a-month/">on pace to smash its own record for drug overdose deaths</a>, more than 4,000 people are sleeping on the streets every night, and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/18/san-francisco-bay-area-crime-car-break-ins-burglaries-bipping-bip-city-bipped-bippin/">property crime</a> and quality-of-life issues have made San Francisco a national punchline. With businesses fleeing and vacant Downtown towers collecting dust, the city could be creeping toward a fiscal crisis.</p>

Regardless of whether people like or loathe Tan, both his supporters and detractors acknowledge that few people—perhaps only <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/06/20/london-breed-mayor-san-francisco-drugs-homelessness-crime-economy-election/">Mayor London Breed</a>—have greater influence at this moment over the city’s political discourse.

London Breed saved herself. Can she save San Francisco?

<p>Regardless of whether people like or loathe Tan, both his supporters and detractors acknowledge that few people—perhaps only <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/06/20/london-breed-mayor-san-francisco-drugs-homelessness-crime-economy-election/">Mayor London Breed</a>—have greater influence at this moment over the city’s political discourse.</p>

Mayor London Breed speaks at a press conference at City Hall concerning the city’s thousands of unapproved housing projects on June 29, 2023. | Jeremy Chen/The Standard


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/BreedPressConf062923_09.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-177997"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mayor London Breed speaks at a press conference at City Hall in June concerning San Francisco&#8217;s many unapproved housing projects. | Jeremy Chen/The Standard</figcaption></figure>


core/image

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/BreedPressConf062923_09.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-177997"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mayor London Breed speaks at a press conference at City Hall in June concerning San Francisco's many unapproved housing projects. | Jeremy Chen/The Standard</figcaption></figure>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/BreedPressConf062923_09.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-177997"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mayor London Breed speaks at a press conference at City Hall in June concerning San Francisco&#8217;s many unapproved housing projects. | Jeremy Chen/The Standard</figcaption></figure>

“Where does this guy have his pull? It isn’t in banking votes in San Francisco politics. It’s in that broader, end-around messaging: the negative light that has been cast on the city,” said David Latterman, a longtime political analyst in San Francisco. “Locally, people might just roll their eyes. But you can’t deny that the national spotlight through these means—and it’s a negative spotlight—has been enough to get Breed to react. And so, in effect, it does work.”

<p>“Where does this guy have his pull? It isn’t in banking votes in San Francisco politics. It’s in that broader, end-around messaging: the negative light that has been cast on the city,” said David Latterman, a longtime political analyst in San Francisco. “Locally, people might just roll their eyes. But you can’t deny that the national spotlight through these means—and it’s a negative spotlight—has been enough to get Breed to react. And so, in effect, it does work.”</p>

In turn, online attacks against Tan are becoming increasingly aggressive, which may be why his list of accounts he’s blocked on X numbers in the tens of thousands.&nbsp;

<p>In turn, online attacks against Tan are becoming increasingly aggressive, which may be why his list of accounts he’s blocked on X numbers in the tens of thousands.&nbsp;</p>

<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1516629421104320519
</div></figure>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I’ll have you know I block people by hand.</p>&mdash; Garry Tan (@garrytan) <a href="https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1516629421104320519?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 20, 2022</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

A website called <a href="https://techbrosf.weebly.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Techbro SF</a> has been trolling Tan and his political allies, circulating an image that shows Tan’s visage on a squid, suggesting his tentacles control political groups and the media—including, incorrectly, this publication. The graphic harkens back to a racist <a href="https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&amp;httpsredir=1&amp;article=1018&amp;context=cola_ug_research" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“Mongolian Octopus”</a> illustration circulated in the late 1800s to bolster arguments against Asian immigration. Tan’s attacks on progressive supervisors who are Jewish, such as Dean Preston and Hillary Ronen, have led to accusations of antisemitism. One progressive commenter called Tan a <a href="https://x.com/SFProgressives/status/1694411877315686837?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“lil Nazi snake.”</a> Tan responded by calling the posts smears and saying he is <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1696028338194993190?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“a big fan of Jewish people.”</a>

<p>A website called <a href="https://techbrosf.weebly.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Techbro SF</a> has been trolling Tan and his political allies, circulating an image that shows Tan’s visage on a squid, suggesting his tentacles control political groups and the media—including, incorrectly, this publication. The graphic harkens back to a racist <a href="https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&amp;httpsredir=1&amp;article=1018&amp;context=cola_ug_research" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“Mongolian Octopus”</a> illustration circulated in the late 1800s to bolster arguments against Asian immigration. Tan’s attacks on progressive supervisors who are Jewish, such as Dean Preston and Hillary Ronen, have led to accusations of antisemitism. One progressive commenter called Tan a <a href="https://x.com/SFProgressives/status/1694411877315686837?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“lil Nazi snake.”</a> Tan responded by calling the posts smears and saying he is <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1696028338194993190?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“a big fan of Jewish people.”</a></p>

<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1696028338194993190?s=20
</div></figure>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The smears are truly absurd at this point<br><br>This is a lie about me and my videos. There is literally no basis for a tweet like this. <br><br>I am in fact a big fan of Jewish people <a href="https://t.co/3rI77eF3YT">pic.twitter.com/3rI77eF3YT</a></p>&mdash; Garry Tan (@garrytan) <a href="https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1696028338194993190?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 28, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The political maneuverings of wealthy power brokers in San Francisco have always been met with deep suspicion and pushback. Tan saw firsthand how progressives blamed people like his mentor Ron Conway, a billionaire venture capitalist, and the tech industry at large for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jul/01/san-francisco-big-tech-workers-industry" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">driving up the cost of rent and gentrifying neighborhoods</a>. Conway receded from the spotlight after <a href="https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/ron-conway-big-tech-drop-thousands-into-sleepy-sf-election/article_00342725-0356-5f79-a4c4-9e4a025a5d35.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">dramatically shaping city politics during Mayor Ed Lee’s administration</a>, but it appears there will be no such backing down with Tan.

<p>The political maneuverings of wealthy power brokers in San Francisco have always been met with deep suspicion and pushback. Tan saw firsthand how progressives blamed people like his mentor Ron Conway, a billionaire venture capitalist, and the tech industry at large for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jul/01/san-francisco-big-tech-workers-industry" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">driving up the cost of rent and gentrifying neighborhoods</a>. Conway receded from the spotlight after <a href="https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/ron-conway-big-tech-drop-thousands-into-sleepy-sf-election/article_00342725-0356-5f79-a4c4-9e4a025a5d35.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">dramatically shaping city politics during Mayor Ed Lee’s administration</a>, but it appears there will be no such backing down with Tan.</p>

“Every way they come after me,” he said, “I’m going to go after them 10x.”

<p>“Every way they come after me,” he said, “I’m going to go after them 10x.”</p>

<strong>‘Prototypical, Testosterone, Poisoned Tech Bro’</strong>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-prototypical-testosterone-poisoned-tech-bro"><strong>‘Prototypical, Testosterone, Poisoned Tech Bro’</strong></h2>


Tan’s massive social media following—and real-world clout as leader of what some consider the top startup incubator in the world—gives every acerbic tweet about housing, the drug crisis and public safety a special weight among the city’s tech and political classes. Over the summer, he and Musk started <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1695215145218445323">replying to each other’s posts</a>, giving Tan an even larger reach thanks to the budding digital bromance.

<p>Tan’s massive social media following—and real-world clout as leader of what some consider the top startup incubator in the world—gives every acerbic tweet about housing, the drug crisis and public safety a special weight among the city’s tech and political classes. Over the summer, he and Musk started <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1695215145218445323">replying to each other’s posts</a>, giving Tan an even larger reach thanks to the budding digital bromance.</p>

Elon Musk (pictured) and Garry Tan tweeted support for a boycott of global law firm Latham & Watkins for providing legal support to a San Francisco nonprofit that’s suing the city over the rights of homeless people. (Photo by Chesnot/Getty Images)


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GettyImages-1499013102.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-195654"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Elon Musk replied in support to a Garry Tan tweet calling for a boycott of Latham &amp; Watkins because the global law firm provided legal support to a San Francisco nonprofit that’s suing the city over homelessness issues.</figcaption></figure>


In direct broadsides on X, Tan has drop-kicked state Assemblymember Matt Haney for <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1685313515207405569?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“virtue signaling”</a> on the drug crisis, tagged Supervisors Connie Chan and Aaron Peskin as part of the <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1694003826997821843?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“corrupt political machine,”</a> suggested Ronen has the <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1697710431341781461?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">IQ of a borderline intellectually disabled person</a> and <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1690583104740876289?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">declared all-out war on Preston</a>, a Democratic Socialist. Tan has also called for abolishing citizen oversight groups like the Police Commission, a proposal political insiders have scoffed at as an example of naivete.

<p>In direct broadsides on X, Tan has drop-kicked state Assemblymember Matt Haney for <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1685313515207405569?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“virtue signaling”</a> on the drug crisis, tagged Supervisors Connie Chan and Aaron Peskin as part of the <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1694003826997821843?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“corrupt political machine,”</a> suggested Ronen has the <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1697710431341781461?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">IQ of a borderline intellectually disabled person</a> and <a href="https://x.com/garrytan/status/1690583104740876289?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">declared all-out war on Preston</a>, a Democratic Socialist. Tan has also called for abolishing citizen oversight groups like the Police Commission, a proposal political insiders have scoffed at as an example of naivete.</p>

Peskin said he has never met Tan but sees him as a “prototypical, testosterone, poisoned tech bro.” The supervisor questioned Tan’s goals beyond “throwing bombs.”

<p>Peskin said he has never met Tan but sees him as a “prototypical, testosterone, poisoned tech bro.” The supervisor questioned Tan’s goals beyond “throwing bombs.”</p>

“He definitely donates money to campaigns,” Peskin said. “But he doesn’t seem to be a [political] player that is actually looking for solutions or sitting down and trying to have mature conversations about how to make the city a better place.”

<p>“He definitely donates money to campaigns,” Peskin said. “But he doesn’t seem to be a [political] player that is actually looking for solutions or sitting down and trying to have mature conversations about how to make the city a better place.”</p>

Tan has contributed more than $278,000 to political campaigns since early 2021, putting him in the top tier of individual spenders in San Francisco. While Tan has made it abundantly clear whom he doesn&#8217;t support, he’s more evasive about whom he plans to back in next year’s elections.

<p>Tan has contributed more than $278,000 to political campaigns since early 2021, putting him in the top tier of individual spenders in San Francisco. While Tan has made it abundantly clear whom he doesn't support, he’s more evasive about whom he plans to back in next year’s elections.</p>

<p>Tan has contributed more than $278,000 to political campaigns since early 2021, putting him in the top tier of individual spenders in San Francisco. While Tan has made it abundantly clear whom he doesn&#8217;t support, he’s more evasive about whom he plans to back in next year’s elections.</p>

Tech entrepreneur and CEO of Y Combinator Garry Tan smiles during an interview at his Y Combinator offices in the Dogpatch neighborhood of San Francisco on Sept. 14, 2023.


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/INLINED08_GarryTan09262023.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-204988"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Tech entrepreneur and CEO of Y Combinator Garry Tan smiles during an interview at his Y Combinator offices in the Dogpatch neighborhood of San Francisco on Sept. 14.</figcaption></figure>


This summer, Tan held a fundraiser for Breed at a condo he owns near Dolores Park in the Mission. Breed’s approval ratings have plummeted since the start of the pandemic, and the private event offered the beleaguered mayor a chance to rekindle support from her frustrated base.

<p>This summer, Tan held a fundraiser for Breed at a condo he owns near Dolores Park in the Mission. Breed’s approval ratings have plummeted since the start of the pandemic, and the private event offered the beleaguered mayor a chance to rekindle support from her frustrated base.</p>

Tan, who supported Breed’s appointments of <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/06/brooke-jenkins-promise-end-drug-dealing/">District Attorney Brooke Jenkins</a> and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2022/10/20/matt-dorsey-drug-crisis-addiction-police-san-francisco-supervisor/">Supervisor Matt Dorsey</a>, considers the mayor to be a “friend” and said the two text each other. But even after giving money to her campaign last year and throwing her a fundraiser, he won’t commit to officially backing Breed in the November 2024 election.

Has San Francisco DA Brooke Jenkins’ drug-dealing crackdown made a dent?

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<p>Tan, who supported Breed’s appointments of <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/06/brooke-jenkins-promise-end-drug-dealing/">District Attorney Brooke Jenkins</a> and <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2022/10/20/matt-dorsey-drug-crisis-addiction-police-san-francisco-supervisor/">Supervisor Matt Dorsey</a>, considers the mayor to be a “friend” and said the two text each other. But even after giving money to her campaign last year and throwing her a fundraiser, he won’t commit to officially backing Breed in the November 2024 election.</p>

“No,” Tan said. “I’m a big fan, and honestly, we don’t even know who the field [of candidates] is yet. So, it’d be way premature to say either way. I can say I’m a fan and supporter. Like, she’s definitely going to be on my ranked-choice vote.”

<p>“No,” Tan said. “I’m a big fan, and honestly, we don’t even know who the field [of candidates] is yet. So, it’d be way premature to say either way. I can say I’m a fan and supporter. Like, she’s definitely going to be on my ranked-choice vote.”</p>

A day prior to his interview with The Standard, Tan met Daniel Lurie, an anti-poverty nonprofit founder and heir to the Levi Strauss fortune <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/26/qa-daniel-lurie-cites-crisis-of-leadership-in-run-for-san-francisco-mayor/">who is running for mayor</a>. Tan said he walked away from their conversation impressed.

Why is Daniel Lurie running for San Francisco mayor? He says city has leadership ‘crisis’

<p>A day prior to his interview with The Standard, Tan met Daniel Lurie, an anti-poverty nonprofit founder and heir to the Levi Strauss fortune <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/26/qa-daniel-lurie-cites-crisis-of-leadership-in-run-for-san-francisco-mayor/">who is running for mayor</a>. Tan said he walked away from their conversation impressed.</p>

Daniel Lurie shakes hands at a press conference at the Potrero Hill Neighborhood House after filing paperwork officially announcing his candidacy for mayor of San Francisco with the Department of Elections on Sept. 26, 2023.


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://content.sfstandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LurieForMayor09262023__0818-1.jpg?w=2500" alt="" class="wp-image-204933"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Daniel Lurie shakes hands at a press conference at the Potrero Hill Neighborhood House after filing paperwork officially announcing his candidacy for mayor of San Francisco with the Department of Elections.</figcaption></figure>


Tan’s support is likely to carry enormous sway in the city’s growing collection of moderate-leaning political groups, some of which Tan is advising. Tan sits on the board of GrowSF, a moderate group launched by two former tech workers, and is part of the “donor table” for <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/03/20/tech-families-abundant-sf-millions-housing-transportation-education/">Abundant SF, a coalition of upper-crust tech entrepreneurs</a> who plan to pool millions of dollars to spend on city elections each year starting in 2024.

San Francisco &#8216;tech families&#8217; plot to spend millions influencing policy

<p>Tan’s support is likely to carry enormous sway in the city’s growing collection of moderate-leaning political groups, some of which Tan is advising. Tan sits on the board of GrowSF, a moderate group launched by two former tech workers, and is part of the “donor table” for <a href="https://sfstandard.com/2023/03/20/tech-families-abundant-sf-millions-housing-transportation-education/">Abundant SF, a coalition of upper-crust tech entrepreneurs</a> who plan to pool millions of dollars to spend on city elections each year starting in 2024.</p>

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