A prospective client recently made an unusual request to Compass real estate agent Andrea Gordon: to link their home listing with the outcome of the approaching presidential election.
“If Trump is elected, the property is going on the market. If he doesn’t, she is keeping the house,” Gordon said. “She plans to move to Portugal if Trump becomes president.”
As Nov. 5 rapidly approaches, election anxiety is leading to plenty of troubled sleep and bitten nails. But one additional impact, according to research and Bay Area brokers, has been a chilling of the local homebuying market.
A nationwide Redfin survey in October found nearly a quarter of prospective first-time homebuyers were holding off until after the election to move forward with a purchase. A number of respondents indicated they were holding off to see who wins the presidential race, as policies on down-payment aid or affordable housing from each candidate could shape their choices.
In the Bay Area, some real estate agents have also noted a pronounced slowdown in the market in recent weeks.
“I do believe that buyers are holding their breath and waiting until the election is over to decide what to do,” said Gordon, who works mainly in deep-blue Berkeley and Oakland. She expects “relief, euphoria, and increased consumer confidence” if Harris wins, while a Trump presidency could lead to “extreme concern and fear and a lack of interest in spending money.”
Following Trump’s election in 2016, her geographic area had depressed sales for six months, she added.
While this presidential race is historically divisive, elections in general have a cooling effect on the market. “Agents say this every four years,” said agent Danielle Lazier. “There’s probably some truth to it.”
Some agents say it’s less a potential policy difference between Trump or Harris than the distraction factor around people’s desire to know how the contest ends.
“Buyers crave certainty. We all do at this point,” said agent Michelle Harris. She said that the SF housing market “seems to have taken a breath” ahead of the election. Even though open houses have been busy, she has noticed that there hasn’t been “much follow-up or real movement from buyers.”
It’s certainly not an across-the-board situation: Other agents said they either haven’t noticed a slow-down in recent weeks or attribute the market’s sluggishness to seasonal patterns or “mortgage rate fatigue,” not election anxiety.
“Since we did not see any significant drop in mortgage rates from the Fed’s most recent action, I believe buyers felt a bit of a letdown,” said real estate agent Max Armour. His take? It’s a great time to buy. “The market tends to move with a herd mentality,” he added. “When buyers are pausing, opportunities arise.”
Paul Kitchen said his real estate team has noticed some “hesitation leading up to the election.” But it’s a trend noticed largely through client conversations rather than indicated in the numbers.
At root is “anxiety about market volatility and, frankly, some distraction,” he said. “The market thrives on relative certainty, and the more uncertain the future is, the less likely people are to commit to multimillion-dollar purchases.”