Kawakami: Prediction time for Warriors-Rockets, which already feels like an epic series

Game 1 isn’t until Sunday, but it feels like the Warriors and Rockets are already well into the bruising middle rounds of an all-out brawl.

That’s because they’ve been circling and occasionally cursing each other at least since the Rockets’ April 6 statement moment at Chase Center when Houston held Stephen Curry to 3 points and won by 10. It’s because this is a classic and probably inevitable collision of Houston’s youth and athleticism against the Warriors’ overload of veteran stardom, skill, and guile. And it’s because both teams have large chips on their shoulders — but for very different reasons.

Sure, it’s only a Western Conference first-round series. It might end up meaning not very much in the 2025 NBA big picture no matter how fiery things get. But the juiciest and best part of the buildup to this matchup is that these two talented teams already seem a little sick of each other — which, in the postseason, really is the sincerest form of respect.

“What I do know is that they’re not going to hold Steph to 3 points again,” Warriors rookie center Quentin Post said Friday. “I know that for a fact.”

Curry, as always, is the lead character in this story, as he has been through four previous Warriors championship runs. But the compelling plot development is that the Rockets have assembled the ideal personnel to defend him — and Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Dillon Brooks just proved that on April 6. And the Warriors — especially Curry — don’t love hearing this repeated over and over to them.

Post’s point is correct, of course. That was just one game and even the most acclaimed defenders — from Tony Allen to Patrick Beverley to Marcus Smart … and remember that brief burst of praise for Matthew Dellavedova in the early stages of the 2015 Finals before the imminent Curry eruption? — have been able to keep Curry down for long.

The Warriors also have a countermove: During and after that previous game, they’ve made it clear that they believe Curry was held, pulled, and bumped by the physical Rockets defenders as he raced around the court trying to find open space. Somehow, he shot no free throws. Meanwhile, Curry’s own in-game complaints were answered by Houston coach Ime Udoka’s blunt retorts as the two teams walked to the locker rooms at halftime.

“I’ve never seen an individual get fouled more than [Curry] gets fouled,” Jimmy Butler said after the game. “To me, I think that’s astounding. But, you know, it’s crazy to say, but he’s used to it. It’s been happening to him his whole career, and he’s found a way through it, around it, under it, whatever you want to call it — that’s tough.” 

And now these two teams are going to play each other over and over for a few weeks, as the pressure builds and builds. With press conferences and podcasts in between. Get ready for all kinds of rhetoric and fireworks.

I don’t think the campaigning will decide this series. I sure hope it doesn’t. But I think this whole thing will sway and tilt in dramatic ways, and the campaigning will absolutely be a part and reflection of everything.

Will the Warriors figure out a way to spring Curry loose enough to win four games? Will Butler be more aggressive offensively than he was in that last game, when he only took seven shots and was sent to the line just four times? Will the Warriors’ secondary shooters — Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, and Post — make the Rockets pay for the Curry overplays? Can the Warriors fend off the Rockets’ determination to sprint and wrestle their way to every rebound and loose ball possible?

And to the point of this public jousting: Will the referees call a few more fouls on the Rockets, send Curry to the free-throw line, and maybe swing the advantage to the Warriors?

“Ime basically said it after the last game — we’re going to foul and they can’t call all of them,” Steve Kerr said Friday. (Note: I don’t think Udoka quite said that!) “There’s a long history of that in the NBA, when you go back to Chuck Daly, Pat Riley. And there’s truth to that. The refs can’t call every foul.

“By the way, we’re a very physical team, too. We’ve been very good defensively in the playoffs by playing a physical game. So I welcome all of that. The series will unfold and teams will complain about the officiating. We will, they will, it’s all part of it.”

This is an excellent under-the-radar point from Kerr, who knows that the Draymond-Butler defensive tag team isn’t exactly all about finesse. I think Kerr is saying that if the Rockets get away with a lot of physicality, the Warriors will be right there with them in the scrums. Which is probably the way it should be.

I’ve covered every Warriors series of the Curry era, and the closest comparable matchup I can come up with is the emotional second-round series against Memphis in 2022 — the Warriors’ most recent title run. Even back then, of course, the Warriors were the old team. Memphis, like Houston now, was higher-seeded and also definitely was the young, athletic, up-and-coming squad. (And had a young Brooks, too.)

What happened? The Warriors squeaked out Game 1 in Memphis to take control of the series, watched in horror when Brooks clotheslined Gary Payton II and broke his elbow in Game 2, then hung on and eventually finished off the Grizzlies in six frantic games.

So there’s enormous pressure on the Rockets to start the series with two wins at Toyota Center. And, thanks to their very happy experiences against a previous generation of Rockets, the Warriors know and love what it feels like in that arena when the home team is feeling pressure.

But also, these aren’t the James Harden Rockets. This Houston team doesn’t necessarily need all of its shots to fall to take over a game. It can do it with speed, defense, and pure force — which is everything that Udoka preaches. The Rockets didn’t have anybody go crazy offensively against the Warriors on April 6, but they held the Warriors, who averaged 118.3 points in the 31 other games since Butler’s arrival, to 96 points.

And you’ve got to believe that the Rockets are just a bit upset about becoming only the second 2 seed since 1988 to enter a first-round series as a betting underdog.

There’s also inherent pressure on the Warriors to win one of these first two games because it’s historically very, very difficult to come back from 0-2 in a seven-game series. Yes, the Warriors dropped the first two games to the Kings in the West first round in 2023 and rallied to win that series in seven games. But let’s just say it: The Rockets are a much larger challenge than the 2023 Kings ever were.

Also, I’ve got to bring up the Warriors-Rockets Western Conference finals in 2018, when the Rockets won 62 games in the regular season and were the No. 1 seed. But the Warriors won Game 1, which allowed them to survive when while losing three of the next four before winning the final two, including an epic Game 7 in Houston — while I sat stunned in the arena’s hockey press box, far above the court, watching the Rockets miss 27 consecutive three-pointers.

It’s specifically impossible for me to pick against the team that has the best two players in the series and, just as a bonus, a legendary defensive force, too. That’s Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green, in case you were wondering.

It’s generally hard for me to predict that a Kerr-coached Warriors team will lose any series if they’re not pitted against an all-time player. (Their three playoff losses under Kerr have been to teams led by LeBron James twice and Kawhi Leonard once.)

Maybe Amen Thompson ascends to a new level before our eyes in these games. Maybe Moody, Podziemski, and Hield hit a cold streak and stay in a cold streak. Maybe Jonathan Kuminga won’t be riding in to save the Warriors. Maybe Curry, Butler, and Draymond will tire out and just look old and slow at the pivotal points of this series.

But if you’ve got a chance to ride with the core group that’s found a way to win 23 out of 26 playoff series since this dynasty started in 2015, and that has won 75% of its games since Butler’s arrival, I think you just keep riding.

I think the Warriors will take one of these first two games in Houston — probably Game 1, while the Rockets are still figuring out what playoffs feel like — then the Warriors will win the Chase Center games to go up 3-1. From there, in this scenario, the Warriors will have three chances to finish off the Rockets. I’ll say they do it on their home court.

Prediction: Warriors in 6.