New York mayor’s race sparks progressive PTSD in San Francisco

Zohran Mamdani’s stunning victory Tuesday in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City has left political pundits and powerbrokers muttering in disbelief.

Democratic insiders have spent months advising a shift back to the center following last year’s election collapse, so the rise of a progressive firebrand who wants to tax the rich, freeze rents, launch publicly funded grocery stores, and supplement police with a new community safety department wasn’t on most politicos’ bingo cards.

Mamdani’s victory could mark a shift as Democrats try to reassemble the party ahead of next year’s midterms. The state legislator’s savvy use of social media and disciplined message on New York’s affordability crisis resonated with voters in a way that could be replicated elsewhere. It helps, of course, that Mamdani’s main opponent was Andrew Cuomo, a dynastic disaster of a candidate who resigned as New York’s governor in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations.

Here in San Francisco, the debate around Mamdani is viewed through a slightly different lens. The city is coming out of its own progressive experiment after the recall of District Attorney Chesa Boudin and three school board members. Voters have since passed more moderate policies on crime and drug treatment, and installed moderate elected officials like District Attorney Brooke Jenkins, Mayor Daniel Lurie and Supervisors Bilal Mahmood, Danny Sauter, Matt Dorsey, and Joel Engardio. (Stay tuned on that last one.) 

Some of the most outspoken critics of San Francisco’s famously far-left politics are suggesting that the Big Apple is in for a rotten turn.

“NYC on track to be the next SF which is still digging out of the hole created by Chesa and the socialists. [It’s] a painful lesson in democracy,” tweeted Marc Pincus, the founder of Zynga. “But the silent majority will wake up when their streets become unsafe and their schools stop teaching and promoting merit.”

Garry Tan, the head of Y Combinator and vocal critic of progressives, has been hammering the timeline with his misgivings about Mamdani.

“At a party tonight with politically active San Franciscans and we were just thinking … wow, NYC is cooked,” Tan tweeted Monday.

For what it’s worth, Tan also tweeted that Democrats were “cooked” after Joe Biden’s debate meltdown, so his cookometer does have a bit of a proven track record.

Todd David, the political director of Abundant SF who helped elect moderates to the San Francisco Democratic Party, said New York could be in for a bumpy ride.

“If Mamdani ultimately becomes the mayor, I do think New York is going to struggle,” David said. “It’s very hard to govern urban centers from the left. New York could really struggle with its business community, and public safety would probably take a hit.”

However, David acknowledged that Mamdani has tapped into something that Democrats have sorely lacked: exuberance. Voters need to be given enticing options instead of establishment candidates salvaged from the scrap heap.

“The establishment Democrats are blocking the next generation,” David said. “It pushes younger voters to the extremes.”

Saikat Chakrabarti, a progressive candidate challenging Rep. Nancy Pelosi for her seat in next year’s election, said there are obvious parallels between his race and Mamdani’s — though he took caution to note that “no one actually likes” Cuomo, while Pelosi is respected in San Francisco. 

“But we need a new politics for this era — a new vision and new ideas,” Chakrabarti said.

“I feel like there’s always this knee-jerk reaction against anyone going for something new,” he added. “And I think Garry Tan has made a career out of investing in startups and giving newcomers a chance. I don’t see why someone who normally invests in startups would be so scared of that.”

If he’s elected, there will be significant pressure on Mamdani to show that a progressive can effectively run New York. But there’s now a blueprint in place for winning a campaign, which is the first and most important step to governing.

“Democrats are spending millions trying to figure out how to win back young men — then a guy like Zohran comes along polling great with them,” Chakrabarti said. “Why try to destroy that?”