Introducing the GavTracker: Our non-scientific Gavin Newsom presidential forecaster

In 2022, fresh off a resounding victory over a GOP-led effort to recall him from office, Gov. Gavin Newsom suddenly emerged as a promising option for Democrats to retain control of the White House in 2024. 

At the time, Newsom said he had “sub-zero” interest in running and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed President Joe Biden should he decide not to run for reelection. 

We need not rehash what happened next.

Now, with Democrats struggling to regroup after a devastating election that put all three branches of government under Republican control, speculation is once again swirling over Newsom’s 2028 ambitions. 

We therefore present the GavTracker, a quasi-scientific tool The Standard will sporadically use to assess whether Newsom will or won’t run for president. 

The tracker isn’t based solely on our guesswork. In recent months, Newsom himself has leaned into the conjecture by openly signaling his interest in the Oval Office. 

“I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold,” he told The Wall Street Journal in a June profile that coincided with his lawsuit challenging President Trump’s mobilization of National Guard troops to Los Angeles, one of 29 California has filed against the federal government since the January inauguration. 

But it isn’t so much what Newsom is saying that reveals his 2028 ambitions as what he is doing. 

The governor on Monday left California for an eight-county tour of South Carolina, a key primary state, where he’ll meet with local Democratic Party leaders and visit rural voters in communities affected by climate disasters and economic hardship. 

Newsom’s campaign team did not respond to questions on whether this trip is part of a planned run for the presidency. But you don’t need a doctorate in political science to know what’s going on here. 

Lindsey Cobia, Newsom’s senior political adviser, said in a statement that the governor “is squarely focused on helping Dems in 2026 and sounding the alarm about how rural families and communities requesting disaster relief are being left behind by the Trump administration.” 

But Mike Madrid, an anti-Trump Republican who has advised both parties on voter strategy, said Newsom, an ambitious politician, has “always been running.” 

What has changed: Madrid said Newsom in recent months has established the kind of initial campaign infrastructure and political message that will resonate with voters at a critical time. 

“His communications and messaging strategy is top-level. Better than any Democrat in the country by a wide margin,” Madrid said. “If the Democrats are demanding a fighter, and they’re demanding a fighter now … you gotta get into the fight now.” 

The GavTracker: As of today, all signs point to Newsom likely running in ’28.

But in Gavin Land, things can and do rapidly change. Here is an incomplete tally of the governor’s key up and down moments over the past two decades — each with a retroactive GavTracker verdict. We’ll update this list as events transpire.