Kawakami: Bob Melvin is the right manager and other signs from the Giants’ late-summer run

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It’s sort of amazing that the Giants have transformed themselves into increasingly plausible playoff contenders, not long after they were a team in total collapse, which was not long after they looked like they were ready to battle the Dodgers and Phillies at the top of the National League.

Up. And way down. And heading up again. Nothing but extremes. And still in it.

How fun this all must be for the Giants’ leaders, right? Well, sort of fun.

“Look, the bipolar level of play was pretty difficult for me,” GM Zack Minasian said with a smile before Tuesday’s victory over the Diamondbacks at Oracle Park raised the Giants’ record to 74-71 and brought them closer to the final NL wild-card spot.

“But we’re sitting here on [Sept. 9] or whatever it is, and we have a legitimate chance to play in October. And I think every year, that’s what we want.”

It still seems a bit far-fetched. The Giants are two games behind the tumbling Mets for the last spot, but the Mets hold the tiebreaker advantage, so it’s really three games. As of Wednesday morning, Baseball Reference’s playoff odds had the Giants at just 21.5%. But that’s about 21 times higher than the odds just over a week ago.

To pull this off, the Giants would probably have to stay almost as hot as they’ve been since Aug. 23, when they started this spectacular 13-3 run. As it is, that’s only gotten them a squidge over .500 after their 9-23 free fall from the All-Star break to Aug. 22.

Can the Giants go 13-4 the rest of the way to get to 87-75 and hope the Mets go no better than 10-7 to finish 86-76? Or go 12-5 and hope the Mets go 9-8 or worse?

Unlikely. But not impossible, especially not with Willy Adames (who hit No. 28 on Tuesday) blasting his way toward and probably past the 30-homer mark; with Rafael Devers looking like he’s absolutely worth all the talent Buster Posey and Minasian gave up to get him and all that money they’ve committed to pay him; and with Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, and Justin Verlander stringing together solid starts.

So, are the Giants starting to check the updated playoff odds every hour or so?

“I was with the Brewers in 2014, and at one point our playoff odds were over 95%,” Minasian said. “And we missed the playoffs by about six games. I think it was the team that spent more days in first place than any team in the history of the game to not make it into the playoffs.

“So, to answer your question, no, I don’t pay too much attention to it. ... We need to win this game, and then we’ll deal with it tomorrow.”

It could vanish very quickly with a couple of losses like they suffered in St. Louis last weekend. Or it could get very exciting into late September. And remember this: The Giants end the season at home with three games against the woeful Rockies.

But let’s drop the focus on the playoff percentages for now. And let’s make some larger-picture conclusions based on what we’ve seen and how Posey and Minasian could and should be viewing it.

What have we learned about the Giants from this very odd season so far?

I wasn’t the first to bring up the possibility of Melvin losing his job over the Giants’ mid-summer tailspin, but I did mention it prominently.

And let’s fully register this: Back then, the players said there was nobody better than Melvin to lead them, and they’ve proved it on the field over the last several weeks.

Of course, this is what Posey and Minasian wanted and expected to see after they picked up Melvin’s option for 2026 back on July 1. That is not what they saw for many weeks after that.

But somehow, Melvin has patched the back end of the rotation and the bullpen together after the Giants’ selloff trades and multiple pitching injuries. Somehow, Drew Gilbert’s zany energy has been the perfect new chemical ingredient to the dugout and clubhouse. And somehow, the team that looked lost in early August seems to take a 3-0 lead in every game.

It’s still not a slam-dunk. If the Giants sputter from here, I could imagine the front office running through some other scenarios. Posey lately has deferred comment about Melvin’s status going into next season, saying decisions on all matters will be made when the season’s over. And Minasian repeated that to me Tuesday.

“We’re just trying to keep the focus as much on this team going out and competing each and every day as possible,” Minasian said.

But he gave an enlightening answer when I asked why Melvin’s option was picked up when it was.

“The team was going very well, and [the front office was] really excited about how we were playing,” Minasian said. “I think the thinking then is no different than right now — still focused on just going out and winning games. And that’s where we want the focus to be.”

If Posey’s lean always was to keep Melvin into 2026 — and picking up the option showed that it was definitely the lean back then — I don’t think the full picture of 2025 has done anything to change that.

It hasn’t been all good. It hasn’t been all bad. And I just don’t think there’s a better option than Melvin for 2026. I know his players agree.

There’s no guarantee to any of this, except, of course, for all that money due to Devers, Adames, Chapman, and Lee. This core group was struggling badly before Devers was acquired in May, then got worse after that.

Potential weaknesses abound. The Giants were awful against left-handed pitching for much of this season, which could happen again next season if they’re once again too left-handed at first base, outfield, and designated hitter.

But they are pot- and checkbook-committed to those five guys, and that hasn’t looked like a terrible thing over the last few weeks. If Devers and Adames are going to be like this for all of 2026, it actually could really work.

“Just nice to see those guys kind of in the midst of some hot streaks at the plate,” Minasian said. “That’s been great, and we need it.

“Those are our guys, and if they don’t perform, it’s going to be tough for us to win."

A manic guy like Gilbert doesn’t fit in as perfectly as he has unless there’s a good vibe throughout the clubhouse and dugout.

Adames has been smiling all season, even when he started off horribly. Chapman and Ramos are always full of energy. Webb is a leader. Everybody seems to get along. And it would’ve been easy for people not to get along during the big slump.

“I think No. 1, I just, you kind of get a sense of the character of the players in that clubhouse, for them to fight back and put us in a position where this is even a conversation, has been pretty awesome to see,” Minasian said.

What’s the big add for 2026? There’s No. 1 prospect Bryce Eldridge (but is he a first baseman over Devers? a full-time DH?). And Posey and Minasian likely can do some maneuvering with the bullpen and also the starting rotation after Webb and Ray (bring back Verlander?); they also have Landon Roupp and Hayden Birdsong coming back.

After that? The most worrying thing for the Giants is that they don’t have a viable exit ramp from this core group. What they’ve got now is basically what they’re likely to have in 2026. Until this 13-3 run, that didn’t seem like a great thing.

Now, the 2026 prospective roster looks credible, but still not one that will haunt the dreams of the Phillies, Brewers, or Dodgers.

Maybe Posey can squeeze in one more middle-tier free agent next offseason. Maybe there’s a salary-for-salary trade out there to get more help at second base or right field or for right-handed-hitting options in center field or at catcher.

Or maybe they'll go 16-1 through September and there are great postseason things ahead in October. Everything is possible, for this season and for Posey and Minasian’s plans into 2026, too.

The percentages are low. But some of the right things are happening. And if they keep happening this season, next season, and all of the seasons, maybe the Giants will look back to this period and say that’s when it all started.