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Will the 49ers have Brock Purdy back under center this week in their showdown against the Los Angeles Rams, who boast the NFL’s No. 1 defense?
As the bluster of Tuesday’s trade deadline clears, that’s the chief question surrounding the 49ers (6-3). They’ve already beaten the Rams (6-2) without Purdy, notching a monumental Week 5 upset thanks in large part to a disciplined medley of short throws from backup Mac Jones.
Purdy is the more explosive quarterback, and it stands to reason that the 49ers can benefit from his off-schedule capabilities if they’re to overcome this ferocious Rams pass rush a second time. L.A. has played nearly half a season and has yet to allow an opponent to move the chains when it’s been third-and-12 or longer — a remarkable statistic.
But the 49ers must deem Purdy, who continues to work back from a turf toe injury, healthy enough to play while minimizing the risk of an aggravation — something that would derail the team’s efforts to field an elite offense over the final two months of this season.
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Coach Kyle Shanahan gave brief thought to playing Purdy last week against the New York Giants but dismissed that idea quickly. It’s worth noting that the game was played on artificial turf, where injuries occur significantly more often than they do on grass. The 49ers play their next five games on grass, opening a clear window for Purdy’s reinsertion to the lineup.
Shanahan said Wednesday that the 49ers hope to give Purdy more first-team reps at practice this week. Speaking on KNBR Thursday morning, GM John Lynch confirmed that the quarterback’s role at practice is growing.
“He’s out on the practice field, and we try to keep giving him a little more,” Lynch said. “He’s making good progress. Turf toe is a tough injury. … He’s doing more this week, and we’ll evaluate at the end of the week.”
The 49ers have gone 5-2 in games that Jones has started. He’s been a fantastic No. 2 QB, especially considering that the 49ers fell on their face both times Purdy was out in 2024.
Jones ranks No. 14 in QBR, but reminders of why the 49ers awarded Purdy (who’s ranked as high as No. 1 and has never ranked worse than No. 7) a contract worth up to $265 million were on display when Jones last faced a top-tier defense in Houston.
The Texans completely snuffed out the 49ers for nearly a half in that game. Jones, who has managed a pedestrian pressure-to-sack ratio of 15.4%, was unable to escape a crushing pass rush.
A healthy Purdy, who’s posted an elite pressure-to-sack ratio of around 5% throughout his NFL career, would obviously be better suited to face a similarly overwhelming Rams pass rush — especially because Los Angeles will presumably enter this rematch with adjustments to counter Jones’ quick-release barrage.
But a fully healthy Purdy is a pipe dream for this season. That’s the nature of turf toe, a notoriously slow-healing injury. And that’s why there’s so much week-to-week murkiness here. The 49ers want Purdy to approach 100% as closely as possible. At some point while that happens — possibly this week — they’ll have to make a return-to-play decision that is at least partially based on gut feeling.
“Anytime you’re dealing with turf toe, it’s something that probably won’t fully go away all year,” Shanahan said. “Regardless of when he comes back, he’ll have to deal with it a little bit. It’s just assessing when’s the best time to come back and have to deal with it the least. It’s a little bit of a tricky decision.”
The good news for the 49ers, beyond Jones’ competence, is that they’re running the ball more effectively. That can take pressure off the quarterback, which is mandatory for the 49ers, because it’s almost preposterous to think they can beat the Rams with Jones again dropping back to pass more than 50 times. (He was 33-of-49 for 342 yards in Week 5.)
That’s the trend the 49ers have been searching for all season, and big success against New York from both Christian McCaffrey and Brian Robinson Jr. sets a tantalizing table moving forward.
But the Giants are the worst run defense in the NFL — they rank No. 32 in expected points added (EPA) per play. The Rams, meanwhile, rank No. 5 against the run.
Sunday’s challenge is a different animal. The 49ers’ offense must find a way to hog the ball against the Rams again — all while delicately threading the needle of a tricky injury to Purdy at the most important position.