Tuesday’s frenzied night of election news isn’t over yet. San Francisco voters could still see results shifting somewhat in the coming days as nearly half of the ballots remain uncounted.
Close to 128,000 ballots are counted, including early votes and those cast at polling centers, and the turnout rate sits at about 26%, according to the Department of Elections’ data. But the department expects to receive another estimated 100,000 mail-in ballots in the coming days, which would push the turnout rate to 46%.
“This approximate total is based on the preliminary count of ballots received on Election Day and will change as the Department processes ballots over the next several days,” the department said in a press release.
Support for the widely publicized recall of DA Chesa Boudin, Prop. H, is leading about 25,000 votes, which means that to reverse the recall, Boudin would need to have more than 63% of the uncounted ballots go in his favor, which is not expected—Boudin conceded his loss in a speech to his supporters Tuesday night.
"This race is going to tighten significantly in the coming days," said Julie Edwards, the spokesperson of Boudin's anti-recall campaign. She acknowledged that the outcome might not change, but "this is not going to end up a 60-40% race."
Jason McDaniel, an associate professor of political science at San Francisco State University, also predicted that while the split in the unprocessed mail-in ballots will favor Boudin more than the current 40-60 defeat reflects, the difference will not be enough to change the outcome.
“I think there might be a slight shift towards the opposition of the recall, but still certainly more than 50% supportive of the recall," he said.
However, the fate of Proposition A, a $400 million public transit bond that required a two-thirds (66.67%) majority to pass, remains uncertain. The current result in support of the bond is about 63.32%.
All the other races, including the ballot measures and the seat of city attorney, state and federal offices, are all showing landslide results as the winning parties have the decisive leads to declare their victory.
The next round of the election result will be issued at 4 p.m. Thursday.
The Standard Data Editor Anna Tong contributed to this report. She can be reached at anna@sfstandard.com.