With 40% of San Francisco Ballots Uncounted, Here Are the Paths to Victory

The SF Department of Elections announced this morning that 40% of San Francisco ballots remain uncounted, which means that there's still plenty of room for movement in close races.

From here on in, it's a slow bandage-ripping-off process as we'll receive results every day at 4 p.m. from Thursday for likely a week.

For those of you biting your nails over a particular SF race, we've done the path to victory calculations for the most contested battles.

District 4

This tossup between challenger Joel Engardio and incumbent Gordon Mar is the closest candidate race, with Engardio leading by almost 4 points. Assuming voter turnout in the district remains in line with citywide turnout, Engardio needs to hang onto 48% of the remainder to win, and Mar needs to get 53% of the remainder to win.

Prop. D

Prop. D is the housing measure that is backed by the YIMBY coalition, which speeds up certain types of apartment construction. It is currently losing, but only by about 1,000 votes. Prop. D will need to get 51% of the rest of the ballots to win.

Prop. E

Prop. E is the housing measure backed by the Board of Supervisors, which only speeds up below market-rate construction. It is currently losing, with 55% voting no. The rest of the ballots will need to move nearly 15 points in order for Prop. E to win. If 59% of the remaining ballots vote yes on Prop. E, then it will pass. Possible? Yes, but very unlikely.

Prop. M

Prop. M is another real estate measure sponsored by Supervisor Dean Preston, which seeks to tax vacant homes. It is currently winning with 53% voting yes. In order for it to flip the other way, the remainder would have to move about 8 points in the direction of voting no, so 45% or less of the remaining ballots would be voting yes on Prop. M.