With 40% of San Francisco ballots uncounted, here are the paths to victory

The SF Department of Elections announced this morning that 40% of San Francisco ballots remain uncounted, which means that there’s still plenty of room for movement in close races.

From here on in, it’s a slow bandage-ripping-off process as we’ll receive results every day at 4 p.m. from Thursday for likely a week.

For those of you biting your nails over a particular SF race, we’ve done the path to victory calculations for the most contested battles.

This tossup between challenger Joel Engardio and incumbent Gordon Mar is the closest candidate race, with Engardio leading by almost 4 points. Assuming voter turnout in the district remains in line with citywide turnout, Engardio needs to hang onto 48% of the remainder to win, and Mar needs to get 53% of the remainder to win.

Prop. D is the housing measure that is backed by the YIMBY coalition, which speeds up certain types of apartment construction. It is currently losing, but only by about 1,000 votes. Prop. D will need to get 51% of the rest of the ballots to win.

Prop. E is the housing measure backed by the Board of Supervisors, which only speeds up below market-rate construction. It is currently losing, with 55% voting no. The rest of the ballots will need to move nearly 15 points in order for Prop. E to win. If 59% of the remaining ballots vote yes on Prop. E, then it will pass. Possible? Yes, but very unlikely.

Prop. M is another real estate measure sponsored by Supervisor Dean Preston, which seeks to tax vacant homes. It is currently winning with 53% voting yes. In order for it to flip the other way, the remainder would have to move about 8 points in the direction of voting no, so 45% or less of the remaining ballots would be voting yes on Prop. M.