Two polls released Monday show San Francisco Mayor London Breed’s opponents gaining momentum, leaving her in a challenging spot two weeks before Election Day.
Together SF Action, a moderate-leaning group, and the San Francisco Chronicle presented different narratives, but both suggest that Breed faces a tough battle, especially against nonprofit executive Daniel Lurie.
Both polls show Breed leading in first-choice support under the city’s ranked-choice voting system. However, Lurie appears to have a huge advantage in garnering second-choice votes from other candidates’ supporters — which could prove decisive in the hotly contested race.
Together SF Action, which surveyed 950 likely voters with a 3.2% margin of error, didn’t release final ranked-choice elimination results, stating that the race remains “too close to call,” with a “three-way tie” among the moderate front-runners.
Breed, Lurie, and former interim mayor Mark Farrell received first-choice support of 25%, 21%, and 21%, respectively. TogetherSF Action, which has received funding from The Standard chairman Michael Moritz, endorsed Farrell as its top choice. In recent weeks, despite telling supporters to rank Breed and Lurie on the ballot, TogetherSF Action has sharpened its attacks on the two moderate competitors.
“We have seen similar data for months, showing a dead heat between Mark Farrell, London Breed, and Daniel Lurie,” Together SF Action CEO Kanishka Cheng said in a statement. “[Every] vote will make a difference in this extremely close contest.”
The Chronicle’s poll, which surveyed 802 likely voters with a 3.5% margin of error, projects Lurie beating Breed in the ranked-choice contest, in which candidates with fewer votes are eliminated and their votes are redistributed to others. Breed and Lurie both have strong first-choice votes, the poll found, but Lurie will come out on top after second- and third-choice votes are factored in.
Lurie, who founded the grant-making organization Tipping Point Community, has leveraged his family wealth from Levi-Strauss to blitz voters with ads positioning himself as a City Hall outsider. Lurie has contributed some $8 million to his own campaign, according to the Ethics Commission, and his mother, Mimi Haas, is a main funder of an independent expenditure committee backing his bid.
“Mayor Breed is holding strong in first place, despite Daniel Lurie and his mother spending $15 million to try and buy the election,” said Joe Arellano, Breed’s campaign spokesperson. “Lurie would be at 1% if he wasn’t spending an unprecedented amount of money to cover up the fact that he has no experience to be mayor.”
Unlike TogetherSF Action’s poll, the Chronicle’s survey did not suggest a three-way tie among Breed, Lurie, and Farrell. Rather, Supervisor Aaron Peskin, the progressive pick, placed third, and Farrell finished fourth after the ranked-choice elimination.
Peskin has gained support in recent weeks, according to two polls released by Lurie’s campaign. Peskin’s team told Mission Local the candidate was performing well in internal polling, while blasting other polls as inaccurate because they did not incorporate phone surveys and relied heavily on text methodology.
Lurie’s campaign issued a release saying he has the “widest path to victory.” Peskin couldn’t be reached for comment before publication time.