This is Part 7 of our eight-part State of the 49ers series — where we’ll assess each position group and introduce some high-level solutions to get the team back into next season’s Super Bowl hunt. Up next: the quarterbacks.
Statistically, Brock Purdy’s 2023 season was one of the best a quarterback has ever delivered.
In 2024, it quickly became clear — around the time top receiver Brandon Aiyuk missed training camp and top running back Christian McCaffrey hit the shelf with an Achilles injury — that following that up with a proper encore in 2024 would be exceedingly difficult.
Still, even with the 49ers crumbling around him — on top of offensive injury attrition and the team’s defense regressing into one of the NFL’s worst units — Purdy managed to deliver an objectively good year. He finished No. 6 in adjusted net yards per attempt, No. 7 in QBR, No.7 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and No. 8 in expected points added (EPA) per play. He’s finished among the top-eight NFL quarterbacks in these all-encompassing stats in each season since taking over as the 49ers’ QB in 2022.
Purdy’s biggest statistical weakness, his interception rate, wasn’t materially different than the 2.5% mark he’d registered during that historic 2023 season. It ticked up to 2.6% in 2024. His cumulative Pro Football Focus grade for the season also did not see a drastic change, dropping from 87.4 in 2023 to 82.4 in 2024.
ANY/A is adjusted net yards per attempt, which combines yards per attempt with sack yardage, touchdown passes and interceptions. It’s strongly correlated with EPA, which also factors in down and distance.
The data tell the story of a very good quarterback who remained a stable fixture of the 49ers even in the midst of upheaval outside his control. That consistency is exactly what general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan want in someone who’s expected to receive the largest contract in franchise — and possibly league — history this offseason.
“I think what we know about Brock is that he’s our guy,” Lynch said last month. “We have interest in Brock being around here for a long, long time. He’s done so much for our organization.”
Added Shanahan: “I plan on being with Brock here the entire time I’m here. We’re capable of winning a Super Bowl with him. We almost did. I know he’s capable of getting the Niners a Super Bowl in the future.”
Even though Lynch and Shanahan have both spoken clearly, there remains a discourse surrounding Purdy’s looming extension that borders on the absurd. It doesn’t seem there should be much question about the contract value of any other quarterback with his résumé. The top of the QB market, after all, has consistently grown with the salary cap, and Purdy has been the league’s most efficient passer since debuting in 2022.
But for whatever reason, wildly divergent takes on Purdy’s market persist. And every couple of weeks, a particularly forceful one recenters the discussion. Take the thoughts of former Buccaneers and Raiders coach Jon Gruden before the Super Bowl.
“They should build a statue of him in San Francisco,” Gruden said. “He covered their ass, man. They gave up three first-round draft choices to get a guy [Trey Lance] that they got rid of. … And [Purdy] is the last pick of the draft. He’s taken you to the Super Bowl. He’s taken you to the brink.”
It’s imperative to view QB play in this league through that big-picture lens. Countless NFL regimes have either succeeded or failed in large part thanks to talent they have (or haven’t) been able to procure for the game’s most important position. Quarterback evaluation, as evidenced by the fact that the 49ers picked failed prospect Lance at No. 3 in 2021 and MVP finalist Purdy at No. 262 in 2022, might be the most inexact science of the NFL Draft.
History, therefore, has constantly repeated itself with perhaps the sport’s most foundational lesson for success: Teams must cherish the strong and stable commodities that they do manage to acquire at quarterback.
The 49ers unequivocally have that with Purdy.
There’s also the dynamic of development. Purdy turned 25 in December. History suggests that his best football should be ahead of him. Peyton Manning didn’t deliver his most efficient season until age 28. Tom Brady was 30 the year he put up his best numbers. Specifically, in 49ers’ history, top seasons didn’t come until even later ages: Joe Montana and Steve Young were both 33 when delivering their finest work.
Operative question: Can the 49ers convince Purdy to sign a longer contract?
Age 33 would likely fall outside the range of a new contract for Purdy — unless he and the 49ers can agree to an unusually long deal like the Kansas City Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes. Very few NFL contracts exceed five years, but ahead of his fourth professional season in 2020, Mahomes signed a 10-year extension worth up to $450 million.
The deal remains notably favorable to the Chiefs because they have contractual control over Mahomes for a decade — with additional guarantees at this portion of the contract kicking in on an annual basis. This effectively gives Kansas City an eject button should the team ever need it at no material cost. Mahomes’ deal is the embodiment of team friendliness.
The 49ers should operate with that as a goal when it comes to Purdy’s new contract. The philosophy is simple: The longer the range of team control, the better — as long as that control doesn’t come at the cost of fully guaranteed money beyond the third season of the contract. That’s actually happened only once in league history, when the Cleveland Browns awarded $230 million fully guaranteed over five years to quarterback Deshaun Watson. Perhaps unsurprisingly, that’s quickly become the worst contract in NFL history.
But as long as the 49ers avoid Cleveland’s mistake and follow typical NFL guarantee structure, their bet on Purdy should carry about three seasons’ worth of actual risk — the standard cost of doing top-level QB business in this league. If they can pair that risk with a longer block of team control, like Kansas City did with Mahomes, the 49ers should be thrilled.
Though NFL contracts have always erred on the side of team friendliness, Purdy would also have to agree to a longer-term setup. It’s within his rights, of course, to push for a shorter-term deal that allows him to leverage free agency sooner. But if the 49ers aim for the opposite, that’s where the crux of these negotiations may lie — even if the public discourse surrounding them remains unnecessarily obsessed with dollar amounts.
Remember, it’s the deal’s structure — not the raw monetary total or per-year average — that will determine its quality for both sides.
The ultimate goal is a mutual one. It is to fairly value Purdy’s immense worth while the 49ers maintain their flexibility to build a team around him. The newly minted Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, have demonstrated that to be possible. They’ve managed to build a robust roster around quarterback Jalen Hurts, who signed a mega-deal worth up to $255 million in 2023. That shows a win-win conclusion is possible.
It’s the totality of moves that makes a true title-contending team, with quarterback topping the list of importance. Those are the stakes for the 49ers and Purdy this offseason.
Extra points
• The 49ers will tender all of their pending exclusive rights free agents (ERFA), according to Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap.
That means tight end Jake Tonges, offensive tackle Austen Pleasants, defensive ends Sam Okuayinonu and Alex Barrett, defensive tackle Evan Anderson, and linebacker Jalen Graham will all receive 2025 contract offers for the league minimum. They’ll have to sign those tenders to play in the NFL next season since the 49ers own their contractual rights for 2025.
While there’s no drama in the ERFA process, the restricted free agent (RFA) process might be more interesting. Running back Jordan Mason is a pending RFA, meaning other teams can bid for his services even if the 49ers tender him. The deadline to do so is next month.
• To usher in this offseason, the 49ers Foundation — which has historically centered its efforts around the team’s Santa Clara headquarters — has named its first-ever legacy beneficiary in the city of San Francisco. The recipient is 826 Valencia, a nonprofit focused on supporting the writing skills of under-resourced students.
At the final game of the regular season, the 49ers hosted two students — ninth grader Zaina Elgaali and second grader Salim Elgaali — who are part of 826 Valencia’s Mission Bay afterschool program. Before kickoff, the 49ers Foundation presented the organization with a $300,000 commitment in funding — $100,000 in each of the next three years.
“We’re over the moon, honored and thrilled to be recipients,” Bita Nazarian, 826 Valencia’s executive director, who’s been with the organization since it was founded in 2002, said in a phone interview.
Nazarian said the funding from the 49ers Foundation is instrumental for 826 Valencia’s plans to add one elementary school to its network per year over the next three years. Nazarian noted that many of the students and families affiliated with the organization are 49ers fans, making the team’s support all the more meaningful.
“The entire Bay Area is 49ers fandom, so by association, we’ve amplified our fandom,” Nazarian said. “I think it’s huge to be associated with a much-loved team. It elevates what we’re doing.
“We support students with writing in hopes they can use writing as a tool to build their own future and impact the community. Writing is agency. Writing is power. We use writing for all these purposes — it’s for creating, building community. We just think writing is such a critical skill that it cannot be lost. It’s part of our humanity and how we connect as people.”