Where the Warriors go from here as a pivotal offseason begins

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The NBA is a never-ending cycle of thinking ahead. Even when the Warriors were surging toward the postseason and then playing their most exciting games of the season in the first and second round, Golden State had basketball operations staffers scattered around the country scouting at showcases, grinding tape, and crunching numbers to search for an edge in roster construction. 

For front-office decision-makers, there’s not much time to stop and live in the moment. 

That’s what the summer is for. 

The Warriors’ offseason is here, initiated prematurely because of Steph Curry’s left hamstring strain in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. The team will never know how far Curry could’ve taken it, but Steve Kerr has said he believes they could’ve gone the distance. 

It was a successful season considering how the Warriors reinvented themselves on the fly with Jimmy Butler, but one that ended in a “what if.”

The prevailing thought throughout the exit interviews is that the Warriors are close to championship contention. Building around the core of Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green is the most realistic path to improvement. 

Here’s what to know as the Warriors head into the offseason. 

The Warriors’ notable unrestricted free agents are Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney. Both Kerr and general manager Mike Dunleavy expressed interest in bringing the veterans back. 

Both Looney and Payton have more value to the Warriors than they would other teams, which makes it possible for Golden State to retain them at reasonable numbers. 

Looney, 29, remains an elite offensive rebounder and a smart positional defender but is otherwise limited as a 6-foot-9 center. Payton, 32, comes with a long injury history but knows how to play next to Curry and is a strong point-of-attack defender when healthy. 

Pat Spencer is also a restricted free agent, and the Warriors will likely be able to retain him as a backcourt depth piece. Reserves Kevin Knox and Braxton Key are unrestricted free agents. 

The Warriors have roughly $140 million committed to Curry, Butler, and Green. 

Here are some numbers that put that into context: 

Beyond Golden State’s core trio, the Warriors have Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Moses Moody, Trayce Jackson-Davis (team option), Quinten Post, and Gui Santos (team option) under contract. That adds up to about $170.5 million before filling out the rest of the roster. 

Here’s a snapshot, via SalarySwish. 

The Warriors’ financials are subject to significant fluctuation. The biggest potential for change will be how they handle Kuminga.

Once the Warriors complete the formality of extending Kuminga a qualifying offer, he’ll become a restricted free agent. That means the Warriors can match any offer sheet he receives. 

Kuminga and the team failed to agree to a contract extension before the 2024-25 season. Kuminga’s camp was believed to be seeking upward of $30 million per year. 

An up-and-down season for Kuminga likely depressed the market for him, though his four-game showcase against Minnesota in the second round could have revived it. At 22, Kuminga remains a high-ceiling prospect who can already put pressure on the rim at an elite level. But he has struggled to fit into Golden State’s read-and-react offensive system, to impact the game defensively, and consistently secure rebounds.

The most likely paths for the Warriors and Kuminga would be to either retain him or find a partner to sign-and-trade him. Golden State likely won’t let him leave for nothing in return.

If a change of scenery is the desired route, the sign-and-trade tactic would make sense. The Warriors could sign him to a number up to $38.7 million per year and trade him to an interested team, with his outgoing salary counting as half of his average annual value. Kuminga’s contract could be aggregated with other salaries in a bigger transaction as well. 

Keeping Kuminga would likely push the Warriors into at least the first apron. There are some roster-building restrictions for teams operating in the first apron, but they’re not nearly as prohibitive as those associated with the second apron. 

Without Kuminga on the roster, the Warriors are roughly $17 million below the luxury tax. That means the $14 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception is available to them (using it would hard-cap them at the first apron). 

*The Warriors’ 2030 pick goes to Washington if it falls outside the top-20. 

The Warriors have the 41st pick in the NBA draft, which they acquired from Brooklyn — via Miami — in the De’Anthony Melton trade. 

Teams in that range, and of the Warriors’ financial might, are generally capable of packaging assets to move up into the first round. If the Warriors identify a player they really like in the late first round, it’s possible they pursue such a maneuver. 

Players who could be available, categorized in the three archetypal areas of need and listed in order of highest to lowest impact.

Player movement is unpredictable, so these are unscientific and incomprehensive. 

Shooters 

Robinson has an early termination option for the 2025-26 season, meaning the Heat could waive him and thus make him a free agent. He’s otherwise on Miami’s books for $19.8 million in 2025-26. 

Playmakers (ideally two-way players) 

Frontcourt size 

Multiple recent reports mentioned Giannis Antetokounmpo attended Steph Curry’s All-Star party at Splash in Thrive City and Antetokounmpo himself mentioned Curry multiple times in a Q&A with fans on X. 

Antetokounmpo is reportedly meeting with Bucks brass to discuss his future with the franchise. With Damian Lillard out for next season with a torn Achilles, Milwaukee’s immediate title chances are remote. 

If the Bucks and Antetokounmpo decide to work together on a trade, the Warriors wouldn’t have the most compelling package. Milwaukee would likely want a slew of win-now young players along with a future draft-pick haul because the Bucks don’t possess their own picks. Teams such as the Spurs, Rockets, Thunder, and Pelicans have far more assets that match that description than Golden State. 

But given Antetokounmpo’s history with the Bucks organization, it’s possible they’d take his desires into consideration. If he makes it clear that Golden State is his preferred destination — a big if — there could be a pathway to a deal. 

Trading for the two-time MVP would likely require Golden State to ship out all of its tradable draft capital along with their promising young players and either Green or Butler for salary-matching purposes.

Even if acquiring Antetokounmpo appears unlikely, pairing him with Curry would be worth pursuing. It’s not quite a pipe-dream, but a dream nonetheless.