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Less than a year after the New York Liberty won their first WNBA championship, owner Clara Wu Tsai suggested that her team could become the first $1 billion women’s sports franchise.
“What the Liberty managed to do was bring in nontraditional sports fans, not just go after existing people,” Wu Tsai told Bloomberg. “There’s still so much more growth that’s possible with our team and with the league.”
No team is capitalizing on that opportunity quite like the Golden State Valkyries.
In the race to a $1 billion valuation, the San Francisco franchise, still in its infancy, may have the edge over a Brooklyn-based team in its 28th WNBA season.
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In June, Sportico valued the Valkyries at $500 million, the most ever for a women’s sports franchise. This cleared the previous standard-bearer, the Liberty, which checked in with a $420 million valuation. It also soared above the Indiana Fever’s $335 million — an increase of 270% from last season — and the average WNBA franchise value of $269 million.
The Fever can credit their rapid surge to 2024 No. 1 overall draft pick Caitlin Clark, who has more in common with Warriors star Steph Curry than just a transcendent 3-point shot. The duo completely changed the trajectory of their respective franchises as Sportico now values the Warriors at $9.14 billion, just 15 years after an ownership group led by Joe Lacob purchased the team for $450 million.
Sportico’s analysis of WNBA franchises begs a few questions: Could the Valkyries become the first women’s sports team to eclipse a $1 billion valuation? Or at least, the fastest to do so? And when could this realistically happen?
“A $1 billion franchise valuation — the way the WNBA has been growing by leaps and bounds, I guess you can imagine that in five to 10 years down the road,” said Andrew Zimbalist, an economics professor at Smith College.
Dennis Coates, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, believes Sportico’s valuation of the Valkyries was optimistic. Like many, Coates wants to see if the team can sustain early interest and success.
“If the team performs well and competes for the playoffs consistently over the next few years, then maybe,” Coates said when asked about the potential of a $1 billion valuation. “On the other hand, ownership paid $50 million to get the expansion franchise in 2023. Without ever stepping on the court, the team’s valuation increased tenfold. That suggests to me that the $500 million valuation is probably too high.”
Sportico’s valuation comes on the heels of Valkyries executives touting their pool of 10,000-plus season-ticket holders, a slew of early Chase Center sellouts, and public comments from Lacob that the franchise will rake in more than $55 million in revenue this season.
“Does it matter that these games are sellouts? Yes, of course,” Zimbalist said. “It suggests that there is a potentially strong following in the area, and that doesn’t surprise me. I think that San Francisco is a great market for women’s basketball. But let’s see whether it is sustained or not.”
The $500 million estimate also comes before the Valkyries have had the chance to acquire a superstar.
This offseason, the majority of WNBA players (more than 100) will be free agents. They include the Aces’ A’ja Wilson, the Liberty’s Breanna Stewart, and Sabrina Ionescu, a Bay Area native who played high school ball at Miramonte in Orinda.
What happens if the Valkyries find their own version of Clark or Curry?
“This could be positive, negative, or zero,” Coates said. “The team certainly believes at the time of the signing that the player could bring in more revenue than their salary, but that may or may not be true.”
The concept of a potential $1 billion women’s sports franchise seemed unrealistic even within the last few years.
Wu Tsai bought the Liberty in 2019, but the purchase price was never revealed. Four years later, Lacob paid a record $50 million fee to establish the Valkyries, the WNBA’s first expansion franchise since 2008. Now, both teams are spearheading growth for a league that will add four franchises — Portland, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Detroit — by 2030.
Which factors could lead to an even greater spike in team valuations?
The WNBA’s media rights deal, for one. Last year, the league signed off on an agreement that will bring in an estimated $200 million annually for games to broadcast exclusively on Disney/ESPN, NBC, and Amazon for 11 years to come, starting during the 2026 season.
“There are NBA teams selling for $6 billion and $10 billion, but that’s on the back of a television deal that guarantees the NBA $7 billion a year,” Zimbalist said, referring to the sales of the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers earlier this year.
“The WNBA would need to find massive television revenues that they just don’t have right now in order to jack up franchise values,” he continued.
The jump from a media rights deal that generates $50 million in revenue for the league to a contract that will provide $200 million annually is reflective of the WNBA’s exponential growth, but there’s still a long way to go.
Another key component is arena-related revenue. This includes (but of course, is not limited to) tickets sales, premium seating prices, advertising, sponsorships, and teams’ leasing agreement with their home venue.
Then, there’s real estate.
The Lacob-led ownership group privately financed Chase Center and controls revenue from ticket sales, arena naming rights, concessions, and catering — all big-ticket items capable of boosting a franchise’s value. While some teams play in publicly financed arenas, Wu Tsai’s ownership group also owns the Liberty’s home arena, the Barclays Center.
With a new media rights deal, healthy season-ticket revenue, and control of their own arena, everything is trending in the right direction for the Valkyries.
But written within Lacob’s vision for his newest basketball venture: The league’s superstars will be pining to come to Golden State immediately in free agency and deliver a championship in the first five years.
“If I were a player in this league, this is where I’d want to be,” Lacob told The Standard in June. “I mean, all you have to do is look around. Sellout crowds — no one’s ever done that before [as an expansion team] — great venue, great coach. There’s nothing about this that isn’t appealing. And that’s our goal, to do that, to attract free agents in the future.”
The Valkyries’ inaugural roster, selected by general manager Ohemaa Nyanin, head coach Natalie Nakase, and the organization’s basketball operations staffers, features a mix of players left unprotected by 12 other teams in the December expansion draft, a handful of free agents, and a variety of rookies earning their first taste of WNBA action. The prospect of adding a star seems like it would add value, but Zimbalist said there are no guarantees.
“In order to have a successful team, you have to be willing to invest more in your players, coaching system, training system and so on,” Zimbalist said, noting that the WNBA “has a salary cap that controls these costs, but it also makes it more difficult for an owner to go out and buy an exciting team. So it goes both ways. The point I will make is that having a championship team costs money.”
Nevertheless, Lacob’s purchase of the Warriors 15 years ago will not be the only time he’s seen a return on investment. The WNBA’s three most recent expansion teams each paid $250 million, five times the $50 million fee to get the Valkyries off the ground.
Even with Sportico’s optimistic valuation, Coates said, the method for estimating a team’s valuation without a franchise sale is complicated. It’s essentially based on “guesses” from information available for an enterprise that has no obligation to make the balance sheets and income statements public.
Still, Wu Tsai sold shares of the Liberty in May at a $450 million valuation, proving there’s a market at that price point.
While the question of whether the Valkyries can found the unprecedented billion-dollar club in women’s sports remains, there’s no doubt they are among the franchises leading the charge. Plus, all the factors that make a team profitable are either in their favor or could be in the near future.
For now, though, the Valkyries have their eyes and hearts set on creating history on the court and achieving Lacob’s mission of winning a title within the first five seasons.
After all, it took the Liberty 27 years to reach that point.