Want more ways to catch up on the latest in Bay Area sports? Sign up for the Section 415 email newsletter here and subscribe to the Section 415 podcast wherever you listen.
Fred Warner’s absence looms over the 49ers’ Sunday night showdown with the Falcons.
Almost everything the 49ers have done defensively the last eight years has revolved around their middle linebacker’s game-changing abilities. He’s an excellent run-stopper, elite in coverage, and has been the lead communicator for a young defense that’s now set to rely on even more inexperienced players.
Three weeks ago, a matchup with Atlanta looked like a breeze. But since the Falcons were shut out by the Panthers, Raheem Morris’ team has won back-to-back games against the Commanders and Bills and enters the Week 7 matchup with a 3-2 record.
What should fans expect from the 49ers on Sunday? Here are our predictions.
Offensive star of the game
Kawakami: Christian McCaffrey. He’s due to break a big run — or several of them — and I’m not sure the Falcons’ defense will be physically primed to stop him after a long trip on a short week.
Lombardi: George Kittle. Though he completely tore his hamstring in Week 1, the star tight end got lucky — the muscle didn’t come off the bone, so he was able to recover in just about a month. Kittle had a superb training camp and will feel like he has a new lease on the season.
Defensive star of the game
Kawakami: Dee Winters. The 49ers’ defense, meanwhile, will have its own major challenge against Bijan Robinson & Co. I doubt we’ll be talking about a complete shutdown, but I can see Winters rising up to at least partially fill the Fred Warner void.
Lombardi: Mykel Williams. With starting Atlanta left tackle Jake Matthews hurt, the 49ers might have a pass-rushing opportunity against QB Michael Penix Jr., who doesn’t move well. Enter the 49ers’ first-round rookie, who logged his first career sack last week.
The 49ers’ potential X-factor
Kawakami: An emotional surge from George Kittle’s return. I’m not writing down any predicted stats for Kittle, back for the first time since his Week 1 injury, but just having him back in uniform will give the 49ers a desperately needed energy boost.
Lombardi: Kittle’s impact on the run game. The 49ers rank No. 27 in run offense expected points added (EPA), which is wildly low for a Kyle Shanahan team. Kittle is the best run-leverage weapon in the league.
The key stat to track
Kawakami: 49ers’ rushing attempts vs. passes. So far, they’ve passed the ball 80 more times than they’ve run it, which has been out of necessity and mostly successful but also must be driving Kyle Shanahan a bit mad. This is the perfect game to get back to the normal 49ers balanced formula or even tilt beyond 50% running.
Lombardi: 49ers’ yards per carry. It’s 3.1 so far, which — again — is absurdly low. We’ll find out if Kittle’s absence has been the primary culprit of these struggles. A rushing surge against Atlanta’s No. 20-ranked run defense would be a great sign for the 49ers.
Game prediction
Kawakami: 49ers 24, Falcons 20. I can’t get Atlanta’s embarrassing 30-0 loss to Carolina out of my head. The Falcons have talent and obviously just beat the Bills, but they’ve got some sloppiness in there, too. The 49ers are wounded, no doubt. I just don’t think they’re going to let this season slip away quite yet.
Lombardi: 49ers 23, Falcons 20. The 49ers enter this game with one more day of rest thanks to the fact that Atlanta played on Monday Night Football. Shanahan’s team has also had a bit of chance to regroup and scheme a game plan without Warner. If the 49ers can get to Penix just a few times, they can force a game-tilting takeaway against an immobile QB.
Section 415: Cricket is on the rise in the U.S., and the Bay Area is a hotbed
Section 415: Steph Curry, Jonathan Kuminga, and a Warriors season preview
Section 415: After the 49ers’ 4-1 start, what’s a realistic outcome for this season?