Want more ways to catch up on the latest in Bay Area sports? Sign up for the Section 415 email newsletter here and subscribe to the Section 415 podcast wherever you listen.
If it was up to Stephen Curry, you could take the NBA’s new “heave” forgiveness rule and heave it into a big bonfire of meaningless ideas.
“I still don’t know what the actual rule is,” Curry said with a frown last week when I brought up that the league no longer will count missed buzzer-beaters as individual field-goal attempts.
Well, it covers shots from more than 35 feet in the last three seconds of any of the first three quarters, but not the fourth quarter …
“That’s too much to think about,” Curry said. “Just play basketball.”
Section 415: Cricket is on the rise in the U.S., and the Bay Area is a hotbed
Section 415: Steph Curry, Jonathan Kuminga, and a Warriors season preview
Section 415: After the 49ers’ 4-1 start, what’s a realistic outcome for this season?
Of course Curry doesn’t love this statistical sleight of hand — because he always takes these kinds of shots, always expects to make them, and thinks that incentives to get players to take them without fearing for their shooting % is kind of silly.
You don’t need to wipe away the accounting for desperation “heaves” if you’re never desperate shooting them.
“I could care less,” Curry said. “I get, what 10 extra (shot attempts that now won’t be counted unless they go in) maybe throughout a whole season. …
“Much ado about nothing.”
I recount all this to underline one fairly significant theme for the Warriors heading into Tuesday’s regular-season opener against the Lakers: Curry’s got an edge in his voice and a look in his eyes.
Everything about him right now feels urgent. And when that happens, you had better pay close attention. The greatest champions always might have one more knockout victory left in them.
So … is the 37-year-old Curry too old to be the main engine of a contending team? Umm, did you watch him late last season before his hamstring injury in Game 1 of the second round and into this preseason and hear his teammates chattering about what they’ve seen in training camp?
Are the Warriors too top-heavy with aging players, including Jimmy Butler at 36, Draymond Green at 35, and newbie Al Horford at 39? OK, maybe, but this group, even without Horford, was good enough to conclude the 2024-25 regular season on a 23-8 clip and win a round of the playoffs.
Could there be too much emotional weightlifting in store for this team going into Steve Kerr’s final contracted year, Jonathan Kuminga’s trade-chip period, and the approaching end of this golden era?
Fine, but this is potentially the sturdiest Warriors roster since 2021-2022, when they also were supposed to be a bit too old, and they messed around and won their fourth championship of this era, anyway.
There are definitely issues, mostly involving the likelihood that all the old guys, including Curry, will be at pains to make it to April and May even close to 100% healthy. (But the Warriors have mostly accounted for that by holding onto Kuminga, reacquiring De’Anthony Melton, and preparing Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody to be full-time stalwarts.)
Also, Kerr and the Warriors front office will have to decide Kuminga’s role for now and his trade potential at some point before the February trade deadline — and if he’s traded, how to assimilate whoever’s coming back.
But it always comes down to Curry in his extended prime. Curry fully understanding his place in the sports universe. Curry absolutely dying to get back into the title chase. Curry and Butler eagerly preparing for their first full season together. Curry and Draymond determined to push this to the very last millisecond of purpose.
Basically, there’s a difference between cold statistical measurements and real-life threat level, and that’s exactly where the Warriors are right now.
What’s the percentage chance that Curry makes a 40-footer at the buzzer? Even for him, it’s low. Statistically. But what opposing team would want him taking that shot with a game or series or season on the line? None.
That’s the Warriors and Curry. That’s this entire season. The odds are not all the way with them, but Curry is, and who’ll ever say that’s not enough?
‘I love our team, too’
Wait: Some smart analytical models are predicting that the Warriors will be very good this season, including the one built by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, which forecasts a 56-win season and possible No. 2 seed in the West behind only the defending-champion Thunder.
The formula, if I can summarize, is this: The big sprint last season after acquiring Butler was very meaningful, they’ve shown they can play the kind of defense that keeps things together during scoring slumps, and yes, there’s always Curry.
I asked Kerr: Are you surprised or pleased or both to hear that the computers love your team?
“Well, I love our team, too,” Kerr said last week. “None of it matters. But we like our team. I think adding Al — we’ve needed a player like him for years, just a space five and protect the rim and guard multiple spots.”
“Where we ended last year, the confidence we had (then) adding Al, getting Melt back. I feel great about the team.”
It’s not a big leap to 50-win territory from last season, when the Warriors went 48-34 and finished seventh in the West (then won the play-in to get the seventh playoff seed). And I did just fine with last season’s prediction.
Fairly interesting trend here: In the last two seasons, the Warriors have increased their win total by exactly two, from 44 to 46 to 48.
It won’t be easy to keep that up or increase the rate in the very deep and tough West, but again, the Warriors seem better built for the regular-season rigors than any of their last several squads.
What’s the starting lineup?
Just a year ago, their opening starting lineup seems a little wacky in retrospect: Curry, Draymond, Andrew Wiggins, Kuminga, and Trayce Jackson-Davis.
On Tuesday, Kerr can go several different ways, but I suspect he’ll start the smaller group — Draymond at center — that worked so well to close last season, saving Horford as a key bench guy who might close halves, too. Moody is out for the start of the season and we’ll see who gets switched into that spot.
I’m guessing Tuesday’s starting lineup will be: Curry, Draymond, Butler, Podziemski, and Gary Payton II (specifically to guard Luka Doncic), though Kerr might make a good-faith gesture by starting Kuminga and sending him at Doncic.
When Moody and Melton are ready to go — and presuming no other injuries in the meantime — I expect the main rotation to look like this:
—Curry, Butler, and Draymond for 30-34 minutes.
—Horford, Podziemski, Moody, Melton, and Buddy Hield either starting or as essential guys off the bench for 15-25 minutes. GP2 is in this group for at least as long as Moody and Melton are out. Pat Spencer might be, too.
—Kuminga as a wild-card who could play either 14 minutes (only when Butler is resting) or bump that up to 26-30 when Kerr needs his scoring and Kuminga is in rhythm with everybody else.
That’s a pretty good base for a nine-man rotation. Then the possible switch-ins …
—Quinten Post and Jackson-Davis fitting in when needed for 5-10 minutes, for bigger roles depending on the matchup, or as possible DNPs.
—Gui Santos and Spencer as Kerr’s favorite energy fill-ins.
—Will Richard on stand-by.
The prediction
The Warriors want to establish their position early, play consistently, and avoid the kind of mad rush to get into the postseason that both enlivened the end of last season and almost certainly put too much strain on the older guys.
I think they can do that this season mainly by raising their game at Chase Center, where they were only 24-17 last season, tied for the 12th-best home record in the league. (This is beginning to be a problem. Two seasons ago they were only 21-20 at home.)
Can they move that up to 26 home wins this season? That might almost automatically get them over the 50-win threshold. I think they can.
I’ll say that the Warriors will go 51-31 and get the fifth seed; and I’ll remind everybody that they’ve hit the 50-win plateau seven total times in the Curry era and made the NBA Finals in six of those seasons. I’m not saying they’ll get that far this season — my playoff predictions come when the playoffs come — but I’m not totally ruling it out, either. I know Curry isn’t.