Will Rain on Election Day Hurt Voter Turnout? Researchers Have an Answer
Written by The Standard StaffPublished Nov. 08, 2022 • 7:15am
Election 2022
A man makes his way through Downtown San Francisco on a scooter on a rainy Sunday morning. | Jana Ašenbrennerová for The Standard.
Election Day is expected to be a wet one, with widespread rainfall in the San Francisco Bay Area and isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds near the coast.
As voters head to the polls in the city, they will face a high likelihood of rain, particularly in the morning. Between a quarter and half an inch of new rainfall is possible, according to the National Weather Service. Wind gusts could be as high as 28 mph during the day.
With much at stake on the San Francisco ballot—from affordable housing and school board seats to the next district attorney—will the rain depress voter turnout? Research suggests that an inch of rainfall above the norm can decrease turnout by up to 1%, according to a report in the New York Times.
The daytime temperature is expected to be in the 50s throughout the region before dropping to the 40s overnight.
Sunny skies will return on Wednesday, with a high of 59, as voters absorb the results from today's election.
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