Kawakami: The 49ers Scapegoat List begins with a coach — but it’s not Kyle Shanahan

They’ve played five games, but it feels like five months. The most melodramatic 49ers fans are acting like the stage has already been set for the end of the Kyle Shanahan era, the descent into decades of madness, or perhaps the end of all human existence as we know it.

Five games, producing a 2-3 record, with a huge game in Seattle coming up Thursday. It’s total chaos in Niners Land. Or maybe just a blip? Well, we’ll see how it plays out, but we know there are recriminations for even the most miniature 49ers failures, and there are glimmerings that this season might end up poorly. That’s why people are nervous, maybe even inside 49ers HQ.

And that’s the kind of high-stakes anxiety that is perfect fodder for an update to my 49ers Scapegoat List. I haven’t come up with one of these in almost six years — a credit to the sustained success and lack of political intrigue once Shanahan and John Lynch really got things going.

But the portents are not good. So it’s time to single out some 49ers figures who are already getting tons of blame or will get blamed very soon and very loudly if things don’t turn around swiftly. An important note: This list isn’t only about pointing out who should be blamed, though that’s definitely part of the process. It’s about the way blame will almost certainly be assigned and how it can be escaped.

Many readers will probably be upset that I don’t list Shanahan at the top of this list. As the center of the 49ers’ solar system, Shanahan gets the most attention, most credit, and most public blame. Some fans can’t forget that he’s failed to cash in at the end of multiple Super Bowls, and they don’t appreciate his self-confidence and utter lack of desire to blame himself or beg for kindness from the media.

But I always point out that it’s the confident, stubborn coaches who get their teams through the tough stuff. Players don’t want wishy-washy leaders who try to win public affection by making panicky changes after a month. Players want the tough guys who have a way they do things and will keep doing them during troubling times, because they know they work. That’s Shanahan. That’s Steve Kerr and the Warriors, too, by the way. That’s all the really good coaches. And Lynch, Jed York, and everybody else involved with the 49ers, especially the ones who cycled through Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly right before Shanahan arrived, know this.

OK, that’s a long windup. Let’s get to the list, starting with …

Sorensen was already on the hot seat — at least in the view of fans — well before the Jets fired Robert Saleh, Shanahan’s original DC, on Tuesday. And now? It’s scalding.

I don’t think Shanahan’s going to make a move at this spot soon, and I doubt Saleh will want to join this staff midstream when he can collect his Jets cash and relax for a bit. But Shanahan also put Brandon Staley on staff for a reason; this bears close watching if the 49ers’ defense continues to plod along at a standard well below their great recent years.

Sorensen was always going to be under intense scrutiny this season after Steve Wilks did a one-and-done DC stint last year and Shanahan tried and failed to hire Bill Belichick, Steve Spagnuolo, and Jets interim coach Jeff Ulbrich for the spot.

So far, the results are not good. The 49ers’ defense is ranked 20th in opponent yards per play, giving up 5.6 yards per. Last year, rightly considered a down year for the team defensively, the 49ers were ranked eighth at 5.1 opponent yards per play. Two years ago, the last under DeMeco Ryans, the 49ers allowed only 4.9 yards per play, ranking third.

And here’s a sign of the two-year decline: This year, the 49ers’ defense has given up first downs on 43.3% of opponent third-down tries, 22nd in the league; last year, they were 27th at 42.5%; in 2022, they were 13th at 38.7%, and in 2021, they were third at 35.5%.

Things don’t look tied together on defense. The top guys, starting with Nick Bosa, are starting to talk about it. Which was what got Wilks fired last season.

But it’s been only five games. I don’t know if Sorensen is the right guy or not at DC. It’s too early to tell. He knows the system after all his time on staff. Mostly, his guys are just getting beat 1-on-1 on big plays. That’s not all coaching.

Of course, some 49ers fans are just as sure that Sorensen’s terrible and needs to be fired after five games as they were that Saleh had to be fired after his first two seasons (before everything kicked into gear in 2019) and that DeMeco Ryans wasn’t the right guy after a handful of games as 49ers DC.

I don’t think Shanahan wants a DC revolving door. But he couldn’t help losing Ryans and Saleh to head-coaching jobs. And he had to make the Wilks change. The next few months will determine if Sorensen’s a long-term guy. If not, maybe Staley steps in later this season. And once the 49ers get to the offseason, they can bring Saleh back or check in with Ulbrich again.

I’ve mostly avoided using this as an excuse for the 49ers’ slow start, but they’re clearly suffering from a familiar accumulation of worn-down bodies and emotions after getting all the way to the big game last February and losing at the very end. And yes, the previous time the 49ers lost in the Super Bowl, in 2020, they collapsed to a blighted 6-10 record the following year.

But this season isn’t really about a Super Bowl curse. It’s probably just injury randomness. If your stars get through one season mostly intact, the odds are that there will be more injuries affecting the next season. Which is what already has happened to Christian McCaffrey, Javon Hargrave, Jake Moody, and Dre Greenlaw — who tore his Achilles during the Super Bowl.

The 49ers have plenty of time to emerge from the hangover. Brock Purdy is an established star quarterback. McCaffrey, Moody, and Greenlaw should be coming back relatively soon. Brandon Aiyuk finally broke through Sunday after his long contractual impasse and sluggish start.

The 49ers hate when contract stuff gets thrust into the public view, but that was exactly what Aiyuk achieved through the spring and summer, all the way up to agreeing to a new deal in the days before the regular-season opener.

Maybe that’s the only way Aiyuk could get the $30 million a year he wanted. And maybe Paraag Marathe, Jed York, and Lynch should’ve been more open to this kind of deal earlier in the process and were too eager to tell everybody they were willing to trade him. But if there’s one thing that started this season’s awkward mojo, it was the confusion and exhaustion of waiting for the Aiyuk talks to play out.

I know I already said he’s not the main culprit. But he gets the big bucks, he has the power, and he gets the second-guessing, especially when his offense is struggling this badly in the red zone. After scoring only one touchdown in six red-zone trips in Sunday’s loss to Arizona, the 49ers have scored TDs in only 41% of red-zone trips, making them 29th in the league. Last season (with McCaffrey, of course), the 49ers ranked first, scoring TDs on 68% of their times inside the 20-yard line.

(Interesting note: For all the understandable kudos Andy Reid gets for his creativity in the red zone, the Chiefs ranked 19th in this stat last season and rank 30th, scoring TDs only 38.9% of the time.)

Shanahan has to make some offensive adjustments, no doubt. He has to manage Sorensen and how things go with the defense. He can’t panic — and he won’t. That’s how bad teams operate, and the 49ers haven’t operated like a bad team since Shanahan and Lynch were hired.

No doubt, Shanahan is not absolved from blame. You only get that kind of shield if you win Super Bowls, and even then, you get criticized if you don’t win the trophy again and again. Shanahan has done neither. But he’s leaps and bounds better and more consistent than anybody the 49ers could possibly hire to replace him.

So unless there’s a total meltdown, Shanahan’s not going anywhere. Almost certainly, he will be the one doing the assignments of blame (and making the changes) if there are continued problems deep into this season.

Why did it feel so remarkable when the 49ers blocked the Cardinals’ field-goal try on Sunday and Deommodore Lenoir ran it back for a TD? Because the 49ers almost never create big plays on special teams — while also giving them up all of the time. It’s because Shanahan repeatedly has let it be known that he doesn’t really want his special teams to do much. Just don’t mess up the game for his offense and defense, really.

But the 49ers’ perpetually bad kickoff coverage forced Moody to make the tackle Sunday, which got him hurt and helped lose the game. It’s not the only time in the past few seasons that special-teams coach Brian Schneider’s units have screwed things up. If nothing else, Shanahan might have to focus on this issue by changing the coach.

Among the key assistants Shanahan and Lynch have lost to other teams over the past few years: Saleh, Ryans, Miami head coach Mike McDaniel, Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, Houston OC Bobby Slowik, New Orleans OC Klint Kubiak, Minnesota general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Washington GM Adam Peters, and Tennessee GM Ran Carthon.

That’s an amazing list of former deputies now starring in major roles for some of the hottest teams in the league. I think Shanahan and Lynch have restocked their staffs with a lot of smart people after getting raided so often. But the sheer volume of turnover in recent years has to have been destabilizing. It’s also a tribute to what other teams think of the 49ers’ operation.

The 49ers remain studded with talent. But lately, things have gotten a bit top-heavy as Lynch has had to recast the salary-cap situation. That meant offloading Arik Armstead last offseason and not re-signing Chase Young. It means future adjustments once the 49ers sign Purdy to an expected deal of $55 million to $60 million a year next offseason (though the big Purdy cap hits won’t start until 2026 or later). It means having to grin and bear it with a thin linebacker corps behind Fred Warner while Greenlaw is out and an even thinner defensive-tackle rotation now that Hargrave is out for the year.

There have been misses in the draft, too. But no team has a perfect draft record. And after a few lean classes, Lynch and top personnel aides Tariq Ahmad and R.J. Gillen seem to have produced a top-quality and deep 2024 group, which will get even better when first-round pick Ricky Pearsall is ready to play.

I was not the only one who, at the time of this massive 2021 deal to move up in the draft to select Lance, speculated that Shanahan and Lynch’s fate was tied to Lance’s success or failure as an NFL QB. Well, we all were wrong. Through luck and genius, the 49ers survived Lance winning fewer games as a starter (two) than they burned first-round picks (three) to acquire him. He’s the Cowboys’ QB3 now, and the 49ers have Purdy, who is worth at least three first-round picks, if that’s the way you want to count this.

But the effects of the Lance trade linger on the 49ers’ roster. If they had kept the No. 12 pick in 2021, they could’ve drafted Micah Parsons (who went 12th). If they kept the 29th pick in 2022, they could’ve drafted George Karlaftis (who went 30th). If they kept the 29th pick in 2023, they could’ve drafted Sam LaPorta (who went 34th).

You never know what the 49ers would’ve done if they’d held onto those picks; maybe they would’ve missed on every one. But when you look at the current roster, there’s a notable lack of emerging, 20-something stars other than Purdy and maybe Aiyuk and Lenoir.

Lynch and Shanahan knew they were taking that risk when they did the Lance trade, and they made up for the whiff by landing and launching Purdy. This is still an excellent roster. But it could’ve been even better and deeper. And if things go badly awry, this will be one of the major reasons why.