To beat the Cowboys, the 49ers need to make these 5 crucial fixes

The 49ers (3-4) are preparing for a pivotal game against the Dallas Cowboys (3-3) on Sunday night. The trajectory of the season may be at stake. A win could put the 49ers in first place entering their midseason bye, but a loss would keep them in the NFC West’s cellar. In other words, this matchup carries way more importance than a typical October tilt.

Both receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle are officially listed as questionable but seem likely to play for the 49ers. The team slowly integrated Samuel, who was hospitalized with pneumonia for two nights earlier this week, back into the fold over Thursday and Friday. Kittle is recovering from a foot sprain but also practiced both of those days.

Receiver Jauan Jennings (hip) and defensive tackle Kevin Givens (groin) are both ruled out, but the 49ers still have enough firepower to be favored by four points against the Cowboys.

Here are five fixes that can go a long way toward helping the 49ers actually secure the critical victory.

Brock Purdy continues to push the ball downfield at unprecedented levels. His 10.2-yard average depth of target leads all qualifying NFL quarterbacks. Per Pro Football Focus, Purdy has attempted throws from 10 to 19 yards 33 percent of the time, the highest rate of his young career.

It’s also a rate that has increased year over year. As a rookie in 2022, only 19 percent of Purdy’s throws went into that 10-to-19-yard window. In 2023, that rate jumped to 26 percent before this season’s similar increase.

But Purdy’s push downfield has been tied to a reduction of volume in the short passing game. He’s attempted only 11 screen passes for 45 passing yards, the lowest totals in the NFL. (Patrick Mahomes, for comparison, has thrown 35 screen passes for 205 yards.) The 49ers have also managed only one explosive play on a pass caught behind the line of scrimmage. According to Next Gen Stats, they managed 70 such plays — third-most in the NFL — over the six seasons prior to this one.

The ongoing absence of running back Christian McCaffrey (who may return Nov. 10, after the bye week), the best outlet option in the league, is obviously tied to this phenomenon. But it doesn’t justify the 49ers’ lack of short-range solutions. Jordan Mason, McCaffrey’s backup, has been targeted only 12 times through seven games — and Purdy has often been conspicuously without good hot-read options when facing free pass rushers.

The solution to such pressure, especially within the context of coach Kyle Shanahan’s system, lies in finding a quick outlet option. Shanahan has done a good job building these safety valves into the 49ers offense in past seasons. He must continue to ace that part of the chess match with adjustments this weekend.

It’s been tricky to gauge the 49ers’ run defense this season. It struggled mightily in 2023 and its ranking in terms of expected points added (EPA), is right back at No. 26 here in 2024. But the performance has been more nuanced than that.

After a slow start, the 49ers have actually performed solidly against running backs over the past several weeks. Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt managed just 3.5 yards per carry. Seattle’s Kenneth Walker III ran for a meager 2.3 yards per rush. Arizona’s James Conner didn’t find much rushing room until the 49ers defense was exhausted at the end of a day with triple-digit temperatures. And run-heavy New England also couldn’t muster much on the ground against the 49ers.

But the 49ers’ struggles against QB scrambles and other non-standard runs, like end-arounds from wide receivers, haven’t gone away. Arizona’s Kyler Murray burned them for a long touchdown on a Week 5 zone read. Patrick Mahomes then toasted them for 33 yards down the sideline last week.

The cumulative result is a below-average efficiency score, illustrated below.

Though the 49ers aren’t in a terrible spot on the Y-axis of that graph, there’s certainly room for improvement. And it’s absolutely worth noting that their opponent this week, the Cowboys, have what is — by far — the worst run defense in the league.

Better run defense can also tie directly into improvement from the 49ers’ middle-field pass defense. According to NGS, the 49ers have allowed 9.6 yards per attempt on throws to the middle-third of the field, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. In each of the six preceding seasons, the 49ers ranked in the top five of this metric.

The defense has seen some specific shortages in coverage from linebacker De’Vondre Campbell (114.6 passer rating allowed ) and safety Ji’Ayir Brown (101.4 passer rating allowed).

But here’s a favorable matchup for the 49ers this week: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott ranks No. 27, averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt when throwing to the middle-third of the field this season.

We delved into this extensively earlier this week. Dallas has been excellent on special teams, while the 49ers have been atrocious. Here’s another illustration of just how costly the team’s struggles on special teams have been.

The 49ers have lost about 20 points of value on special teams, a disastrous amount in a league of extremely tight margins. It’s fine if special teams isn’t good enough to win games. But it’s a major problem if special teams is bad enough to frequently lose them.

The 49ers have run the ball with decent efficiency — until they’ve encountered put-up-or-shut up moments. They’ve worsened from No. 4 to 18 over just one season in stuff rate, which measures the percentage of runs stopped for no gain or a loss. They’ve dropped even more precipitously — from No. 7 to 25 — in power success rate, which measures a team’s conversion percentage on third- and fourth-down runs with less than two yards to go.

Returning McCaffrey should help, but again, the 49ers must survive at least one more game without him. That’s the challenge this Sunday: Survive and advance.