You would be forgiven for thinking billionaires Bill Oberndorf, the national Republican benefactor, and Michael Moritz, the venture capitalist and chairman of The Standard, are always at odds with Mayor London Breed.
After all, Oberndorf and Moritz were among the four biggest individual spenders in the November election, and that money went squarely against Breed’s candidacy. As recently as last year, however, the trio were allied, considering policy they thought would move the city forward.
It was during an early 2023 meeting at Oberndorf’s office on Front Street, overlooking grassy, dog-friendly Sydney G. Walton Square, that Breed began to lose them.
The men were hot to reform San Francisco’s charter to give the mayor’s office more executive authority, particularly over commissions that were “driving her nuts,” one attendee recalled. They would spend big to back such a measure at the ballot.
Breed wasn’t so sure. She suggested a smaller change, asking Oberndorf and Moritz to fund a tweak to city rules that would allow her to more easily declare a state of emergency. This would enable her to bypass byzantine rules to quickly address matters such as the fentanyl crisis.
The billionaires didn’t think this would be enough to effect significant change in the mayor’s authority, one insider recalled. Breed said she’d stew on alternatives. It took weeks of cajoling to get her to follow up. It became a turning point.
“I do like her. I don’t bear her animosity,” Moritz told The Standard. But, he said, “we expected her to come with more concrete ideas.”
Oberndorf and Moritz began to drift from her, an insider said. His own shift was “gradual,” Moritz recalled — but Breed’s lack of follow-through from the meeting played a role.
To explain Breed’s reelection loss last week to Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie, a man with no governmental experience, observers are pointing to one of the mayor’s foundational mistakes: She mismanaged political relationships, to her detriment.
Political relationships are ineffable, unmeasurable things that can have effable, measurable consequences. Breed’s failure to cultivate Oberndorf and Moritz led them to spend a collective $4.3 million to back candidate Mark Farrell and Proposition D, a government reform initiative that had roots in last year’s discussions between the three.
Farrell and Prop. D both failed. But the groups spending that money, TogetherSF and Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, initially had their proverbial cannons loaded to help Breed. As one insider told it, it was easy to imagine a scenario in which Breed redirected those power players toward large-scale changes that would benefit her.
“I truly believe if she had played it differently, that she could’ve kept them inside the tent,” one source said.
And it’s not just the billionaires who fled the circus.
Entities who backed Breed in her inaugural mayoral run, in 2018, either changed allegiances or were conspicuously absent this election: key unions like SF Fire Fighters Local 798, the building trades, and the Deputy Sheriffs’ Association; campaign experts; influential Chinese community groups; wealthy and grassroots donors; and major endorsers.
This is the backbone of the moderate coalition, a loose collection of power players in public safety, housing construction, and transportation improvement. Throughout this election season, insiders talked of a moderate Democrat “divorce” as they split allegiance among Breed, Farrell, and Lurie.
The mayor is the de facto leader of this coalition, and much of its cohesion — the glue — is found in the relationships cultivated by leadership. The coalition’s fracture may spell trouble for Lurie, too, as these allies have the ability to help San Francisco defend itself against dual threats: President-elect Donald Trump and the city’s anticipated $800 million budget deficit.
Insiders told The Standard that Breed had accepted their donations years ago, then froze them out and opened up lines of communication again this year only to solicit donations for her reelection. By contrast, some local politicians host policy summits for financial backers to weigh in on key issues, from fentanyl to downtown’s economic recovery — so the donor “feels like they aren’t just a blank checkbook,” one insider said.
“That’s fucking smart politics,” the source added. “They become your army. She didn’t have an army.”
Maintaining relationships can be far simpler. Mayors will have lunch with key supporters or text them on special occasions. When advised to do more “little things” to keep allies happy, Breed would often say she was too busy.
Political consultant Dave Ho, who said he enjoys a positive relationship with Breed, recalled the late Mayor Ed Lee frequently touching base with members of his coalition.
“If you do something for the mayor, anything for the city as a civic responsibility, Ed Lee would have breakfast, lunch, and dinner with you, and you’d never get a call from London Breed,” Ho said. “It’s a governing style, right?”
The stories from insiders are numerous.
One longtime union ally who was instrumental in Breed’s 2018 election told The Standard he was stunned to rarely hear from her after she won office.
“Six months into [Breed’s] administration, I got more texts from Gavin [Newsom] and Kamala [Harris] than from her,” the union ally said.
An ally from a different part of Breed’s coalition once learned of a ballot measure affecting the group “in the newspaper,” instead of being allowed to weigh in early.
Another insider who has worked on previous San Francisco mayoral campaigns remembered prepping in-depth information that would prove vital in Breed’s 2018 election. When Breed was set to review the copious findings in a meeting, she instead focused on something trivial: whether the three-hole punches in the research papers were aligned. She wouldn’t move on with the meeting, and refused to review the information that took hours to prepare.
It felt degrading, said the insider, who made sure to bring a three-hole punch to subsequent meetings. They said the experience was one among many that left a bad taste in the mouth. This insider did not come back to help on Breed’s 2024 campaign.
“When you blow through relationships the way she did, you don’t attract the best for the city and county,” the insider said.
Jane Natoli, SF organizing director for YIMBY Action, counts her group as among the last few standing in Breed’s coalition as she ran for reelection. YIMBY Action was well served by the mayor, Natoli said, and Breed is known as a charming, charismatic leader.
Every insider echoed that sentiment: Breed rose to office on her unique political strengths.
She is commanding, and her swift decision-making is credited with saving lives during the pandemic. At a moment’s notice, she can be incredibly warm, easily wowing voters in small groups and at large rallies alike. And Breed knows how to translate her harrowing personal experiences into arguments for policy change — a quality that helped launch her political relationships in the first place.
Still, Natoli acknowledged that Breed failed to nurture the relationships necessary to keep the moderate coalition stitched together. And, she said, as groups like TogetherSF, Neighbors, GrowSF, and YIMBY Action diverged in their views and approaches to San Francisco’s myriad challenges, their leaders took harder stances that drove wedges between them.
“It’s going to take people time to process that and get over that,” Natoli said.
Time is not on their side. The budget crisis is looming, and Trump poses an existential challenge to San Francisco’s values.
“Winter is coming,” Natoli said.