State of the 49ers: McCaffrey will take back his turf, but the draft could produce a successor

This is Part 3 of our eight-part State of the 49ers series — where we’ll assess each position group and introduce some high-level solutions to get the team back into next season’s Super Bowl hunt. Up next: running back.

The NFL’s running back renaissance is officially here. Ironically, Christian McCaffrey — who might’ve launched this revolution when the 49ers acquired him via trade in 2022 — was only a minor part of it in 2024.

And that was a major problem for the 49ers.

McCaffrey carried the ball only 50 times over four games and the 49ers dropped from No. 1 to 12 in overall rushing efficiency. McCaffrey missed the first two months of the season with Achilles tendinitis before suffering a season-ending PCL injury against the Buffalo Bills just as he’d regained his stride.

The injuries mean that the NFL’s rushing champion and MVP finalist from the 2023 season was forced to watch dominant campaigns from Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley, Baltimore’s Derrick Henry, and others from the sideline. The league-wide phenomenon that McCaffrey himself started in 2022 — with offensive transformations spearheaded by new additions at running back — raged within the Eagles, Ravens, Packers (Josh Jacobs), Vikings (Aaron Jones), Texans (Joe Mixon) and Chargers (J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards).

The 49ers, meanwhile, enjoyed powerful running from Jordan Mason during McCaffrey’s first stint on injured reserve, but the backup wasn’t impactful enough in the pass game to deliver McCaffrey’s transformative boost.

McCaffrey racked up 564 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on top of his 1,459 rushing yards in 2023. Mason managed only 91 receiving yards and no touchdowns in 2024 before he, too, landed on IR.

So in a year that completely discredited the “running backs are interchangeable” theory, McCaffrey’s absence fully illustrated his immense value to the 49ers.

As impressive as Mason’s running was — his 3.35 yards after contact per attempt matched McCaffrey’s 2023 average — he ran only 153 times. That paled in comparison to McCaffrey’s NFL-high 272 rushes in 2023.

Both efficiency and volume from the backfield are needed to sustain this offense. The 49ers got some of the former and not nearly enough of the latter. Their first-down rushing efficiency — an offensive bedrock — dropped from No. 1 to 20 this past season (the lowest mark the 49ers have had since finishing No. 16 in 2018).

The good news is that McCaffrey, who’s still just 28 years old, should be fully healthy entering 2025. He overcame the bilateral Achilles tendinitis that sidelined him early on. The December injury he suffered in Buffalo was unrelated — merely a product of terrible luck and hard contact with frozen turf. A shoestring tackle from Bills safety Taylor Rapp was the difference between a “he’s back!” touchdown for McCaffrey and a season-ending injury.

That’s just how 2024 went for the 49ers, and there are many reasons to believe they’ll have better luck in 2025. Isaac Guerendo, a former college receiver-turned-running-back who blossomed nicely over his rookie season, should give the 49ers a more credible No. 2 threat behind McCaffrey in the receiving game.

Here’s how the 49ers’ backs ranked in terms of yards per route run. No one outside of McCaffrey or Guerendo gave them plus-receiving efficiency out of the backfield, which is necessary for coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense to fire on full cylinders.

The biggest question over the next month or so involves Mason’s future with the 49ers. He’s scheduled for restricted free agency. So although the 49ers will ultimately decide whether Mason stays or goes, there’s a chance his price escalates beyond the team’s comfort zone.

The first-round RFA tender is projected to cost around $7.3 million, followed by the second-round tender ($5.2 million) and the right of first refusal tender ($3.2 million). If the 49ers slap a second-round tender on Mason, he’d be free to negotiate with other teams and seek a contract worth more than that. In this scenario, the 49ers could match any outside tenders and retain Mason, or they could stand to recoup a second-round draft pick if he signed elsewhere.

The 49ers and Mason can also bypass this entire RFA dance by agreeing to a contract extension before free agency opens in March. Either way, the 49ers will have to determine Mason’s precise value to them. With McCaffrey returning and Guerendo emerging, they may see the bruising Mason — especially since he isn’t the ideal receiving threat for their system — as more of a luxury than a roster necessity.

That said, it’s hard to ignore what Mason did do on the ground in 2024. His running metrics were downright excellent. During this backfield renaissance, teams — including the 49ers — should see real value in his performance.

Stockpiling talent at running back has proven imperative because of high injury rates. That’s been on frequent display for the 49ers, who’ve staggered to the finish line with multiple injured backs throughout much of Shanahan’s tenure. Receiver Deebo Samuel has even moonlighted as a running back, but he’s averaged just about 40 carries over the past three seasons, and it’s clear that the 49ers need much more volume to make ends meet at the position — especially since McCaffrey and Guerendo both fought through multiple injuries last season.

Enter a strong 2025 draft class of running backs. It’s headlined by Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman Trophy finalist who delivered one of the most spectacular seasons in college football history. Kansas’ Devin Neal, Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton are other top names.

Perhaps it’s worth mentioning that Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo, who grew up in Rio Linda, wore McCaffrey’s 49ers jersey to fire himself up for a game this season.

There is some concern about how fast Skattebo will run the 40-yard dash during the upcoming testing cycle, but perhaps his do-everything versatility can make him a candidate to one day succeed 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk — one of the league’s most adaptable players who remains under contract for one more season.

But it’s worth noting that Skattebo was downright explosive in college and may be able to port that to the NFL across multiple disciplines.

In fact, there have been only three FBS running backs to amass over 1,700 rushing yards and over 550 receiving yards in at least one season of their college careers.

The first was McCaffrey, who did so during a record-breaking 2015 season at Stanford. We see how well he fits in Shanahan’s offense now.

The other two backs to achieve that: Jeanty (currently a first-round projection) and Skattebo (third-round-plus). Happy draft season to Shanahan.