How Deebo Samuel’s likely departure changes the 49ers’ wide receiver plans

This is Part 5 of our eight-part State of the 49ers series — where we’ll assess each position group and introduce some high-level solutions to get the team back into next season’s Super Bowl hunt. Up next: the wide receivers.

The harsh reality facing the 49ers: Deebo Samuel, who requested a trade at his exit interview last month, will likely be playing elsewhere next season. It wasn’t a shocking development, but Sunday’s news fully clarified the direction the 49ers are headed in their receiving room.

The 49ers are incentivized to oblige Samuel’s trade request for a simple reason: They’re looking to optimize their offensive weaponry around Brock Purdy, and Samuel’s playing style — he’s a receiver who specializes more in bulldozing defensive backs than he does separating from them — doesn’t fit that bill. Purdy has progressively pushed the football further downfield over his three seasons at the helm, pulling coach Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense away from the quick-strike unit helmed by former QB Jimmy Garoppolo, with whom Samuel delivered an All-Pro season in 2021.

“It was a hard conversation to have with Kyle because of the relationship that we have,” Samuel said Sunday via ESPN’s Adam Schefter. “But I have to do what’s best. I’m more than thankful for the Niners giving me the opportunity of a lifetime, but now I think it’s best that we find another team.”

The 49ers already anticipated parting ways from Samuel last offseason when they spent a first-round draft pick on receiver Ricky Pearsall before extending Brandon Aiyuk on a massive deal worth $30 million annually. They also re-signed receiver Jauan Jennings through 2025. All of those receivers are master separators. It was apparent entering the season that Samuel faced an uphill battle to earn an extension of his own.

Samuel was excellent through training camp and the start of the season, but he suffered an oblique injury in Week 2 and struggled from that point onward. He was then hospitalized with pneumonia in October. After a December win, Samuel complained on social media that he wasn’t seeing the ball enough — only to drop a would-be touchdown pass from Purdy in the loss that essentially eliminated the 49ers from playoff contention.

All told, it was a miserable season. Samuel is now 29, and the 49ers will try to move him ahead of the final season on his contract. A $15.4 million option is due March 22, so the team would presumably like to execute a final move before then. The 49ers seem willing to shoulder $31.5 million of dead money on their books if it means netting worthwhile draft compensation in return. If a trade isn’t consummated, the 49ers will likely release Samuel with a post-June 1 designation, a maneuver that will stave off most of the dead-money impact to 2026.

The 49ers have enough 2025 cap space to maintain optionality between the two paths (also, remember that cap space carries over from season to season). The biggest question moving forward, then, is how they’ll build out their pass-catching corps without Samuel.

A look at 2024 efficiency provides necessary context. YPRR, or yards per route run, is Pro Football Focus’ measure of receiving efficiency within the context of any given target’s offense. Because catch and yardage totals don’t account for how many times a receiver is deployed on pass patterns, YPRR is a gauge of how efficiently a target is integrated into the offense — or how heavily he’s used.

Blue denotes a YPRR number above the NFL average; red denotes a clip below the league mean. The 2023 version of that table looked markedly better for the 49ers. Five targets, including Samuel (2.26), scored in the blue that season.

Aiyuk, who was the second-ranked NFL wideout at 2.65 YPRR in 2023, also fell off severely in 2024. He followed a contract standoff and training camp hold-in with poor play over seven games before suffering a season-ending ACL and MCL tear. Tight end George Kittle — who’s in talks with the team on a contract extension — picked up some of the slack in 2024. But they couldn’t come close to re-approaching the lethal efficiency of the previous season without the best of Aiyuk, Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey — who also missed most of the season due to injury.

Two staggering sets of data illustrate the 2024 misbalance. The first shows receiving efficiency by position group. Thanks to Kittle, who’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory and therefore a no-brainer for that new contract, the 49ers scored off the charts at tight end. But they languished at both wideout and running back.

The second set of data comes from NFL Next Gen Stats, which uses GPS trackers to measure target separation at the time of catch or incompletion. The 49ers, thanks to Purdy’s accuracy and a separation average that ranked No. 11, performed efficiently against man coverage in 2023.

But 2024, marred by suboptimal seasons from Aiyuk, Samuel, and McCaffrey, saw the 49ers tumble to dead last in average separation. Purdy remained ultra-efficient against zone coverage, but the 49ers were one of the worst offenses against man coverage as a result.

The 49ers are undoubtedly counting on natural healing to rectify much of this separation issue. They expect Aiyuk back at some point next season and McCaffrey to be once again 100 percent healthy. Those two are massive puzzle pieces for what the 49ers hope to accomplish around their young quarterback.

But how will Shanahan fill out the rest of the receiving picture?

Pearsall delivered a promising end to the season, averaging 2.63 YPRR over the final two games. His emergence combined with the late-season success of running back Isaac Guerendo, who began his college career as a receiver, likely gave the 49ers confidence that they can absorb the potential loss of Samuel — who added a unique multidimensional threat at his best. The strategy of using a pair of early 2024 draft picks to retool the offensive skill position arsenal appears to be paying off.

But 2024’s injury attrition suggests that the 49ers shouldn’t feel too comfortable, especially since Aiyuk might miss at least part of 2025 while he finishes recovery from his knee injury.

Cincinnati Bengals wideout Tee Higgins is scheduled to be a free agent. New York Jets star Davante Adams, an East Palo Alto native who’s expressed a desire to play on the West Coast, will also likely be available. The Jets’ plans for receiver Garrett Wilson, who’s entering the lame-duck year of his contract, remain unclear. He and other veterans might be on the move.

Those would all mark big swings for the 49ers at receiver. Consider them unlikely for a team that might be more geared toward spending available monetary capital on the trenches. But given the severity of last season’s struggles and the expected magnitude of the upcoming investment in Purdy, nothing should be ruled out when it comes to enhancing the QB’s weaponry.

The draft again seems to be the likeliest avenue of fortification for the 49ers. First, they’ll see if second-year speedster Jacob Cowing — a fourth-round pick last year — can break into the receiving rotation after making a handful of splashes his rookie season.

Then, they may turn to a 2025 prospect pool that includes Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, Ole Miss’ Tre Harris, Utah State’s Jalen Royals and Texas’ Matthew Golden. The 6-5 McMillan could bring a new contested-catch dimension to the 49ers offense while a target like the 6-2 Harris falls more in line with the conventional build of Shanahan’s receivers.

Of course, Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter — who played both receiver and cornerback at Colorado — will also be available, but he’ll likely be picked far before the 49ers are scheduled to come onto the clock at No. 11.

Still, even if the 49ers don’t make the biggest splash here, expect an active offseason from the team at receiver. The news on Samuel’s likely exit signaled that. Moves over the next few months will be critical for a team looking to fully revive Purdy’s supporting cast.