Kawakami: The Warriors need a fifth finisher. Steve Kerr has a growing number of options

Moses Moody is a regular, steady, and quite successful starter these days, so it’s not surprising when he’s Steve Kerr’s choice to finish games alongside Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, and Brandin Podziemski, right?

But wait: On other nights, Kerr fills that fifth spot with Jonathan Kuminga’s explosive athleticism and occasionally accidental brilliant moments. Some nights, Kerr leans to Buddy Hield’s no-conscience quick-trigger from deep range or Gary Payton II’s veteran gumption and defensive chaos. Some nights, the Warriors’ coach splits it up — as he did in Sunday’s loss to Houston, when Kerr alternated Kuminga and GP2 in the fifth spot.

And a few days ago, Kerr just went with Curry’s urgent request: Get Gui Santos in there!

That’s exactly what happened in the later stages of the Warriors’ victory over Denver on Friday — they had a slim lead and, as Curry explained later, he figured that Santos’ defensive versatility would be the most valuable thing they could get out of the fifth spot down the stretch. Not shockingly, Curry was right. And it all was more proof that the entire Warriors organization understands the weight of Kerr’s choices with this deep roster and the increasing significance of these games — and those closing minutes — as the regular season closes and the postseason looms.

If Curry or Draymond have a suggestion, why wouldn’t Kerr run with it?

“I trust these guys implicitly; Steph and Draymond are the ones on the floor feeling it, seeing it,” Kerr said a few days later when asked about the input. “The easy thing with Gui is you’ve got your players telling you that. You see it on tape. And then your analytics guy tells you he’s the highest plus-minus guy on the team. There’s really not that many decisions you have to make at that point.

“But one is that when you’re fully healthy, like we are now, then somebody else isn’t going to play. That’s the tricky part, because we’ve got a lot of guys who can play. The beauty of what’s happening now is that it’s winning time. It’s coming up on playoff time. Everybody’s just bought in and doing their job and embracing whatever happens.”

All understandable. Moving egos to the side and making the best decision at the best time is the Warriors’ traditional egalitarian way. But it’s relatively rare for a good team to be switching through this many fifth-man options at this stage of the season. Rotating two or three guys at that spot isn’t unusual. One guy’s hot, he plays. One guy’s not, he’s out. Easy decision. But five, six, or even seven guys (counting centers Quinten Post and Kevon Looney) who could close alongside the core four on any given night? That’s a lot. Possibly too many and too jumbled. But as the Warriors are thinking now, it’s also a luxury to have so many different ways with so many different kinds of players to finish games — depending on the matchup, the flow, and the individual nightly performances.

“The Laker game, JK finished the game, did a great job,” Kerr said before Sunday’s game. “The next night against Denver, it was Gui. Tonight, it could be Gary, could be Moses, it could be Buddy. I kind of know the other four spots, who’s going to be out there, but the other one, it’s gonna be different night to night. The only way it works is if everybody embraces it. And that’s what’s happening.”

A few months ago, it didn’t seem like this would be too hard. The Warriors actually massively whittled down their roster in the four-for-one trade to acquire Butler in February. Since then, they’ve vaulted up the standings and simplified most of the rotation.

But that fifth spot in the final minutes is still open and they still have all these options. Kerr won’t get the decision right every night. And there still can be frustrations for the players who don’t get out there as much as they’d like. So there’s still a lot on Kerr’s mind and his shoulders every game.

Who will get those minutes if the Warriors are trailing late in a play-in game — Kuminga or Moody? Or if they’re up 2-1 in a second-round series but the opponent is rallying by going small — go with GP2 or Hield? Somebody has to play. A bunch of somebodies have to sit. Kerr has to deal with everything. Yes, it can all be a bit of three-dimensional stress.

And again, every franchise stakeholder understands all of this.

“From my perspective, it’s way better than it was pre-trade,” Curry said Sunday of all the options. “We’ve had a certain level of consistency for the rotations and knowing who’s going to be out there at certain times throughout the game, knowing who you’re going to be out there with. There’s obviously the question of who’s in the closing lineup and who the five guys are gonna be and based matchups, based on who’s playing well, all that type of stuff.

“When you’re winning, it’s just a commitment to being ready for your moment. And whatever that means, embrace it. I think we’ve done a really good job of that since February and our record is kinda reflective of that.”

Maybe Kerr will settle on deciding between the same two guys for this spot heading into the playoffs, with the right to juggle it up in extraordinary circumstances. But then which guys get boxed out?

Here’s a quick run through the options:

I don’t know if Kerr has a default option for this spot, but if he did, it’d have to be Moody, who is smart, can defend most guards and forwards, is a solid outside shooter, and probably has the fewest weaknesses among these fifth-man options. Which is why he’s flourished in the starting lineup.

But if Moody’s 3-point shot isn’t falling and he doesn’t have a great defensive matchup, he’s not a dynamic enough athlete to change the rhythm of a game, and he can get spun around by faster players. Which is why Moody only played 14 minutes — and not at all after subbing out with 9:11 left in the third quarter — against the Rockets on Sunday.

Current status: Moody is a very effective ensemble player when everything is going well. But when there are some problems, Kerr usually has to go another way at the end of games. And the playoffs are all about trying to solve problems.

He’s literally a difference-maker: Kuminga’s athleticism, ambition, size, and random clunkiness within the Warriors’ system make things different every time he’s out there. Of course, when Curry and Butler are running hot, it’s not good for the Warriors when somebody else changes the rhythm of the game. Statistical proof: Kuminga has the worst net rating among regular-rotation players over the last 15 games, and it’s not close. These are not numbers the Warriors can ignore.

But they need to do things differently at times — against Houston on Sunday and against other fast and athletic teams that can swarm Curry and slow down Butler. Why did Kuminga only play 18 minutes? He made a bunch of mistakes. He wasn’t the best guy to fit around either Curry or Butler. But also: Kuminga could match the Rockets’ athleticism and he was a team-best +9 on the night.

It’s a tightrope — the Warriors might need Kuminga to carry them through a key stretch of a playoff game; Kuminga might also look very bad in six or seven other postseason outings. It’s up to Kerr to figure out how to balance all that.

Current status: Kuminga has to be patient when he sits, and he has to be ready to find his spots. He’s heard all of this before, hundreds of times, but that’s the way Kerr and the veterans want it and that’s the way it’ll go.

GP2 has helped the Warriors win big playoff games in the past and you can bet that Kerr is looking for him to do it again. Payton is by far the Warriors’ best on-ball defender and one of their best rim-runners as a pressure-release when teams double Curry.

But as old coaches always say, there’s a reason GP2 is left open so much. He has hit some big 3-pointers in his career, including this season, but defenses give him open shots because he’s just not a natural shooter.

Current status: GP2 will be a top fifth-man option if the Warriors are protecting a lead. But if they need offense and the Warriors need outside shooting, it gets tougher for Payton when the Warriors will already be playing with Draymond and Butler.

It’s been hard for Hield to get much time in the closing lineup lately because Podziemski has jumped far ahead in the pecking order and the Warriors understandably try to avoid playing Curry, Podziemski, and Hield together defensively at the same time.

Current status: Hield is streaky and he’s not going to close many big games. But he hasn’t been bad at all for the Warriors this season — he actually has the team’s second-best net rating over the past 15 games (+9.8), even while his shooting has wobbled.

He hustles, he rebounds, he passes the ball, he has a great attitude, he plays well with the superstars, he gets requested by Curry. You want to draw up an ideal Kerr bench guy, that’s it right there.

“Energy, IQ, understanding of role,” Kerr said of Santos recently. “A role player who plays with energy figures out how to serve others.”

Current status: Santos has the best net rating over the past 15 games (+12.1) of all Warriors rotation players and Kerr is always going to look for ways to get Santos into the game in important situations. But Santos’ extremely limited offensive repertoire makes it tricky against really good defenses.

Current status: Post and Looney will definitely both get playing time into the playoffs. The Warriors need Post’s shooting and Looney’s rebounding and defense. And if Post starts lighting it up from three in the playoffs, he’ll probably get some extra time here and there. But the Warriors have always been at their best closing with Draymond as a small-ball center and now they’ve got Butler and Draymond as a ferocious 4-5 tandem to eat up ball-handlers — and cover for each other’s gambles — in the final minutes.