The very best thing that happened to the Warriors this season was also the very worst thing that could’ve happened to Jonathan Kuminga’s Warriors career at this quite significant moment for everybody involved.
Jimmy Butler arrived in February while Kuminga was out with a sprained ankle and the Warriors changed in a way that essentially left Kuminga behind, even when he returned in mid-March. And in a way that, team sources acknowledge, confirmed some things Steve Kerr had been weighing for a while.
That’s the simplest, broadest answer to two glaring questions as the Warriors head into the first round of the playoffs: Why did Kerr completely bench Kuminga in the last two enormous games? And does this mean that Kuminga’s time with the Warriors is all but over?
In the short term, Kerr hasn’t ruled out playing Kuminga in the playoffs, especially in this series against the extremely athletic Rockets. But Kerr has made it clear that Kuminga is behind Butler, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Buddy Hield, and even Gui Santos in the wing depth chart. And with Butler averaging 44 minutes in the last two games, there just aren’t many wing minutes left to divvy up, anyway.
In the long term, Kerr has made his call: He isn’t waiting anymore for Kuminga to figure out how to play with Curry and Butler and he doesn’t think it’s worth giving Kuminga guaranteed minutes just to keep him mentally engaged. If that’s true now, of course it’ll probably be true this summer, when Kuminga will hit restricted free agency. It’ll be true for as long as Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green are the Warriors’ cornerstones — and all three of them are signed for several more years and enormous dollars.
This is a triple-down on veteran IQ and veteran willpower. This is accepting the Warriors’ 24-8 finish (including Tuesday’s play-in victory over Memphis) as proof of Kerr’s concept. This is a full commitment to the players who fit with Butler, Curry, and the rhythm the Warriors have established — and zero time and patience to keep going with any player who doesn’t.
No blowup, just a breaking point
Multiple team sources said there was no big blowup between Kerr and Kuminga that precipitated this. I’d even say that a loud argument might’ve helped the relationship — or at least cleared the air. Why couldn’t Kerr just reduce Kuminga’s minutes instead of giving him DNPs? Why did he go out of his way to flag this situation? It seems drastic. It feels like a snap reaction.
But really, this was a long, uncomfortable situation between two pretty stubborn guys overdue to hit a breaking point. And things just broke.
Over the years, Kuminga has tried to play the way Kerr wants, with some very clear high points when he was ready to pass, cut, screen, rebound, and run the floor with force. Right before the ankle injury — and before Butler arrived — was probably Kuminga’s best sustained run as a Warrior, when he averaged 31.1 minutes, 21 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 7.2 free throws a game in December. But that was also a losing run for the Warriors.
And Kerr has tried to accommodate Kuminga’s 1-on-1 skills and look past his mistakes. Before the Butler trade, the Warriors needed as many talented players on the floor as possible. But accepting messy play is never going to be Kerr’s style — he won’t hide his preference for simpler plays and savvier players.
Once the Warriors started winning with Butler, once Curry showed what he could still do with a complementary superstar next to him, once Brandin Podziemski, Moody, Quentin Post, and Santos raised their games to meet this moment, Kuminga seemed more and more like a luxury item that the Warriors could not afford to keep putting out there.
Kuminga takes quick shots when Kerr wants everybody except Curry or Butler to make sure they’re thoughtful about moving the ball around and exploring every possibility for Curry and Butler. And Kuminga can get lost on defense in this switching scheme that puts a premium on making the right reads at the right time.
Has Kuminga been the worst Warriors rotation player during the last month? No. Even when he’s struggling to fit in, he still can soar for breathtaking dunks or barrel through the lane with soft left-handed finishes. But he’s the Warrior with the worst net rating over this period and the player who sometimes just seems to get in Curry and Butler’s way.
A few Warriors sources pointed to the Warriors’ huge victory in Memphis on April 1 as a turning point. That’s when Curry scored 52 points and the Warriors put up 134 in maybe their most electric, connected game of the season. And it was a game Kuminga missed with a pelvic bruise.
Two games later, in another huge Warriors victory — over Denver at home on the back end of a brutal back-to-back — Curry himself told Kerr that Santos should close the game. Which he did, successfully. And who was the player Santos replaced? It was Kuminga, of course.
Then, going into the regular-season finale, Kerr and the coaching staff knew that the Clippers defense was designed to swallow up ball-dominant players like Kuminga. So they drew up a playing chart that didn’t include him. And even though they lost a thrilling game in overtime, the Warriors felt like that was also one of their best and most scintillating performances of the season.
A role in the Houston series?
When Kerr was asked before Tuesday’s game whether he’d spoken to Kuminga about the demotion or his acceptance of it, Kerr just quietly and slowly shook his head.
Later, Kerr gave this answer when asked if he’s worried about hurting a young player’s confidence with this kind of stark decision: “I don’t factor that in. … That’s regular-season stuff. When you go through the 82-game season, you factor in everything, you try to help everybody along. … When you get to the playoffs, everything goes out the window. You just try to win each game.”
Not surprisingly, Kuminga’s presence also has diminished in the locker room, which he’s exited swiftly without speaking to reporters for the last week, and the seats on bench, which he’s rarely used lately, preferring to spend his time among other players in the tunnel to the locker room during games. Other than his postgame shooting session on the Chase Center court long after Sunday’s game, Kuminga’s basically been a ghost around the team — there, but barely seen, not listened to, and definitely not counted on.
Multiple Warriors people noted, however, that Kuminga has had several good games against the Rockets and could play a role in this first-round series, which starts Sunday in Houston, because he’s the one Warrior who can match and even attack Houston’s length and athleticism.
“He’s getting his work in,” Draymond said of Kuminga on Tuesday night. “That’s all you can do in that situation is get your work in. And he’ll be meaningful for us in that series. I have zero doubt about that. I think the challenge for him is to stay mentally engaged, as it is for anyone in that situation. But I have zero doubt in my mind that he’s going to help us in this series. He will, 1,000%.”
So things could change again. A couple of great moments in this series could remind Kerr and everybody else that Kuminga is only 22 and still could project as the Warriors’ lead star in a post-Curry era. He’s one of Joe Lacob’s favorite players for a reason.
If Kuminga departs this summer, the Warriors would be banking everything on three mid-30s players and a supporting cast specifically designed around them. It’s good for now, but it’s fragile. How great will this look without Kuminga in two or three years?
But I can’t see Kuminga and Kerr finding a lot of common ground from here. I can’t see the Warriors wanting to pay Kuminga anything close to market value — probably about $28 million a year or higher — if the coach doesn’t believe in him and the stars aren’t sure they want to be on the floor with him. I can’t see Kuminga wanting to stay here a second longer than it takes to figure out his next team.
The Warriors hate letting valuable assets go for nothing, and Kuminga is absolutely still an asset. Restricted free agency is complicated, so Mike Dunleavy would have to work through a lot of things to get something worthwhile in return for Kuminga. But the Warriors have had a lot of warning about this pending breakup. So has Kuminga. These last few games have merely been the public notice.