Supervisor Joel Engardio faces a political earthquake next Tuesday. But he should be used to it — he was on shaky ground from the minute he won office.
After three unsuccessful runs for the board, Engardio won the District 4 race in 2022 by a razor-thin margin, earning just 460 more votes than the incumbent, Gordon Mar.
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Three years later, Engardio is much more unpopular than he was upon entering office, poll numbers show. He spent his slim political capital on Proposition K, the 2024 ballot measure that closed the Great Highway to cars and converted the coastal road into a park. Engardio ran on a moderate, tough-on-crime platform, and many of his strongest supporters are upset about the road closure, as they are more likely to drive than take transit. Thus, the Sept. 16 recall election.
The political self-own created a specific campaign challenge: Engardio’s onetime supporters are now his greatest detractors.
In any other recall effort, a candidate would drive turnout of their political base. On this campaign trail, however, those who voted for Engardio frequently call him for his “betrayal” in crafting Prop. K.
Lacking that foundation, the chance of Engardio rallying enough support to avoid recall is an uphill battle that could have far-reaching consequences. His loss would give Mayor Daniel Lurie the chance to appoint a new District 4 supervisor and would set off an election for a new leader next June.
The Standard has mapped out where voters are most likely to have cause to raise their pitchforks against Engardio. We're calling them the “Betrayal Zones.”
Nearly half of District 4 – including the Sunset and Parkside neighborhoods – fall into this bucket. These precincts voted heavily for Engardio in 2022 but against Prop. K in 2024. Areas like Lakeshore (the deep-red precincts 9449 and 9451 in the map above) are likely his deepest wells of opposition, analysis of the precinct map shows.
The idea that Engardio’s original supporters were also Prop. K detractors didn’t surprise political consultants. But the near parity of the correlation was a shock.
“I just wouldn't have necessarily assumed it would fall that cleanly, I guess because politics is so complicated,” said Jason Overman, a consultant with Progress Public Affairs. “Those of us who analyze and advise for a living, the No. 1 rule is ‘Don’t piss off your base.’”
The perils of angering supporters were obvious at a San Francisco Democratic Party board in late August. Albert Chow, a recall proponent, told the board in public comment that disenfranchised residents were mobilizing.
“Why have all of us, five or six hundred volunteers, kept pounding the pavement to get him out of office?” Chow said. “Why? Because he crafted this betrayal.”
Betrayal: It’s the theme of the recall effort. To see why, one only has to travel to a neighborhood near Engardio’s home: Lakeshore.
In the southwestern corner of San Francisco, Lakeshore is a slice of midcentury suburbia, with raised post-war ranch and split-level homes splashed with pastel paint.
The name of one major street, Country Club Drive, recalls bucolic vibes and exclusivity. True to its name, a September morning found the streets barren of traffic and neighbors strolling together.
But cutting through the tranquility is a surge of political passion, with vibrant yellow “Recall Joel Engardio” signs blazing from windows on nearly every block.
Angela Lao was walking from her car to her garage when The Standard caught up to her, but she made time to air her anger over Engardio. She said she voted for him in 2022 but voted “yes” on the recall because of his role in crafting Prop. K.
“It’s the betrayal,” Lao said. “Why should a road closure be put on a citywide ballot?”
Tom Ngai, another Lakeshore resident, misses driving out-of-town visitors down the Great Highway.
“I’d show them proudly what Ocean Beach looks like,” he said.
The loss of that tradition — driving along the beach with the wind in his hair, hearing the roar of the ocean — is reason enough to recall Engardio, Ngai said.
An analysis of precinct maps shows Engardio’s support appears stronger — or, more accurately, his opposition is weaker — on the northwest side near the Great Highway.
Martha Abbene is a 69-year-old Sunset District resident who lives near Kirkham Street and 47th Avenue, a veritable island of Engardio support amid precincts against him. She’s an outlier in the broader district: She supported Prop. K.
Consequently, she opposes the recall.
“I think people need to understand that this is not just about recalling Joel,” Abbene said. “This is about working against the park.”
Engardio’s career hinges on how many voters like Abbene he can turn out, especially in those like-minded precincts.
A casual stroll by two reporters near the Great Highway showed signs against and for the recall, in equal measure. Georgia Hodges, who has lived on 43rd Avenue since 1999, is against the recall in principle, not for any great love of Engardio.
“I find him lackluster,” she said of her supervisor. Still, Hodges said, “the park is hands-down absolutely essential, from a climate perspective.”
As of early September, she hadn’t cast her ballot.
Swaying the hearts and minds of the most aggravated voters isn’t necessarily the key to victory. Many have already voted: More than 12,000 had returned their mail-in ballots as of Tuesday.
Jim Ross, a campaign consultant, said that number is strong, especially for a recall election. He worked on Gavin Newsom’s 2003 mayoral run and gained experience in the Sunset running former District 4 Supervisor Carmen Chu’s campaign in 2008.
Alarmingly for Engardio, the precincts that have turned out for the recall so far are largely the angriest ones highlighted in the “betrayal zones.” The correlation shows just how difficult surviving the recall might be.
“That would probably put the recall over the top,” Ross said.
Shayla Love, a longtime Sunset resident who lives two blocks from the beach, worries that if Engardio is recalled, the park’s future could be at risk.
Love has been canvassing at the farmers market, urging neighbors to support Engardio and preserve the park. But she admits to feeling uneasy — not only about confronting recall supporters, but about what comes next for Sunset Dunes, a place she quickly came to love.
“That’s my biggest fear,” Love said. “Whether he’s recalled or reelected, it could determine whether my happy place — me and my family’s place — is undone.”