Want more ways to catch up on the latest in Bay Area sports? Sign up for the Section 415 email newsletter here and subscribe to the Section 415 podcast wherever you listen.

When UC Berkeley chancellor Rich Lyons convinced Ron Rivera to return to his alma mater in March to assume a newly created general manager role, he talked to the former NFL head coach about setting a realistic goal for a downtrodden Bears program.

“Could we get to an eight-win regular season?” Lyons asked Rivera.

“Nine,” Rivera responded. “Nine is when we start feeling successful.”

Fewer than 24 hours after the Bears’ dreams of a nine-win season slipped away in an embarrassing 31-10 blowout loss to rival Stanford in the Big Game, Rivera made the biggest decision of his tenure to date.

Rivera reportedly fired head coach Justin Wilcox, who fell to 48-55 in his nine-year tenure and watched his four-year streak of wins over Stanford come to a screeching halt in a mistake-filled performance in Palo Alto on Saturday.

ESPN first reported (opens in new tab) the news of Wilcox’s dismissal. The Athletic reported offensive analyst Nick Rolovich, the former Washington State head coach, will take over in an interim capacity.

A 6-4 Cal team needed to beat Stanford, then Southern Methodist, then an opponent in a bowl game to achieve Rivera’s nine-win dream. A loss sealed the Bears’ fate, and a program that hasn’t won more than eight games since 2008 will now search for its next leader.

Wilcox’s firing thrusts Rivera and the Bears into a coaching carousel that’s spinning faster than ever before. The pressure of succeeding in football isn’t limited to a handful of SEC and Big Ten programs, as the realities of a pay-to-play landscape have compelled Cal and Stanford to dive in and attempt to keep pace with ACC powers.

Earlier this year, Lyons told The Standard that Cal needs to reestablish itself as a winning program by the end of the 2029-2030 athletic year, which is when the Big Ten’s media rights deal with FOX, CBS, and NBC expires and another round of conference realignment could take place.

“That’s the timeframe … or you’re just not going to be in the big game anymore,” Lyons said in October.

In other words, it’s a now-or-never moment for a Cal program that doesn’t want to get left behind.

Rivera has undoubtedly spent the entire season evaluating Wilcox and his coaching staff, but a matchup with a Stanford program that’s also searching for its next head coach weighed heavily on the first-year general manager.

When Rivera looked across the field in the second half of Saturday’s game and watched Stanford — under interim head coach Frank Reich — executing the pro-style offense that general manager Andrew Luck sought to implement, he watched a rival with a clear identity and direction moving forward. Stanford was able to put the game on ice on the ground because of early Cal giveaways and a never-ending string of penalties, which are the type of self-inflicted errors that have prevented Wilcox’s teams from winning more games.

Cal’s miscues and Stanford’s confidence created the type of contrast that was assuredly noted to Rivera by the Bears’ top donors. And in the current landscape of college sports, when money is in danger of drying up, programs have no choice but to take action.

The urgency to win is what originally compelled Cal to pursue Rivera, who oversees the football program and was a prominent figure on the sidelines of Saturday’s loss. When Bears linebacker Luke Ferrelli was flagged for roughing the passer and targeting on the first play of the third quarter against Stanford, Rivera joined Wilcox on the field to argue with officials before a replay review ultimately rescinded the targeting call.

Next season, Rivera will stand next to a different coach, but it’s unclear exactly what qualities he’ll look for in Wilcox’s successor.

Rivera has to grapple with the reality that Cal is embarking on a search weeks after some of the most coveted jobs in college football have come open. Florida, LSU, and Penn State all have national championship aspirations, and the candidates who don’t land those gigs can fall back on vacancies at Arkansas, Auburn, and even Oklahoma State, which has historically enjoyed a strong donor base.

The Bears’ next coach needs to convince the best players on the current roster — especially freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagopolutele — to stay and then secure commitments from immediate impact players in the transfer portal. Rivera was hired to help secure the financial resources necessary for the Bears to become a factor, but a new coach will be responsible for identifying and developing talent that can engineer a turnaround.

Considering Rivera’s extensive NFL background, it’s impossible to know all the names in his rolodex and who he might lean on to assist with the search to succeed Wilcox.

UC Davis coach Tim Plough deserves consideration after starting his Aggies tenure with 19 wins in 25 games, and New Mexico’s Jason Eck might be the best candidate with FBS experience west of Texas after helping the Lobos to an 8-3 record this season.

Regardless of who the Bears hire, Wilcox’s firing is a signal that Rivera isn’t content to let Stanford return to relevance at a faster clip.

Luck, who was hired last November as the Cardinal’s first general manager, is expected to hire Stanford’s next head coach in the coming weeks. That person will take over a Cardinal team that will finish the 2025 season with a worse record than the Bears, but one that secured a victory in its most important game of the season.

Cal’s blowout loss on Saturday put a magnifying glass up to the program, and no one — not Lyons, not Rivera, and not the fans — liked what they had to see.

In nine seasons, Wilcox never won nine games. As Rivera outlined when he was hired, the Bears’ next coach will ultimately be judged by their ability to hit that threshold.

Jane Kenny contributed to this story.