A new poll may dampen what had appeared to be a surge in support for San Francisco Mayor London Breed’s reelection bid: She is locked in a virtual dead heat with challenger Mark Farrell under the city’s ranked-choice voting system, according to a survey conducted by Probolsky Research and funded by the San Francisco Deputy Sheriff’s Association Political Action Committee.
The new poll shows support for Breed at 51% and Farrell at 49% in a ranked-choice contest. The survey of 300 people was conducted by phone and online between July 30 and Aug. 7, in English, Spanish and Cantonese.
The poll’s timing coincided with the start of Breed’s “very aggressive” homeless encampment sweeps. That may have soothed voters, as the poll shows that homelessness is the top concern of San Franciscans. Public safety ranked second on voters’ minds.
A poll released last week by the San Francisco Chronicle showed Breed eclipsing Farrell by 8 percentage points, but it showed only first-round votes in the ranked-choice voting system. That’s far from the full story, said Adam Probolsky, president of the research firm that conducted the new poll for the deputies’ PAC.
Probolsky went a step further and asked respondents to fully rank their votes for mayor. This showed Breed and Farrell far closer than the Chronicle poll, he said — notable because election season hasn’t yet reached a fever pitch.
“That’s why I’m so impressed by Farrell’s numbers,” Probolsky said. “This guy doesn’t have to be where he’s at.”
Voters who are satisfied with San Francisco’s direction are more likely to vote for Breed by a long shot, the poll shows.
It also shows a rough road ahead for Breed’s other challengers: Supervisor Ahsha Safaí was eliminated in ranked-choice voting, with less than 3% support; Levi Strauss heir and nonprofit CEO Daniel Lurie had 21% support; and Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin had 28%.
The results are well within the margin of error of 5.8%, suggesting Farrell could pull ahead of the mayor. He netted a key endorsement last week from Local 798, the firefighters union. That all-important nod comes with the promise of a pile of cash and campaign mailers featuring San Francisco’s beloved firefighters holding “Mark Farrell for mayor” signs.
“We have known since launch that this was going to be a two-person race between our campaign and Mayor Breed,” said Jess Montejano, Farrell’s campaign spokesperson. “What this poll now makes clear is that Mark is the only hope voters have to deliver real change in City Hall unless they want four more years of London Breed or Aaron Peskin. We are taking nothing for granted and will keep sprinting through Election Day.”
Breed campaign spokesperson Joe Arellano painted the poll as a win for the mayor.
“Mayor Breed has overtaken her opponents in the polls because voters are seeing and feeling the effects of her policies,” Arellano said in a statement. “While her opponents promote the negative Trump and MAGA portrait of our city, Mayor Breed continues to serve as San Francisco’s biggest champion.”