We started this prediction series last week before the 49ers took on the Rams. We got a few things right (mainly Brock Purdy blowing past the century mark in passer rating) and a few things very wrong (predicting a big game from Jordan Mason and Brandon Aiyuk). We’ll be applying the same five categories to every game so we can track our predictive performance.
Here are our predictions for the 49ers’ game Sunday against the Patriots.
Purdy’s passer rating under or over 100
Lombardi: OVER
The times when Purdy doesn’t hit the benchmark this season will be rare, especially against a low-tier defense like New England’s. The Patriots rank No. 28 in expected points added (EPA) per play against the pass (the Rams rank No. 31), so expect Purdy to cook again.
Kakakami: UNDER
I don’t think the 49ers will need much from the air to beat the Patriots, and it’s unlikely that Purdy has Jauan Jennings running free all game like he did against the Rams. I’ll say this will be a solid baseline game for the QB, maybe with one interception, which will put him around a 90 rating.
49er with the most yards from scrimmage, rushing and receiving
Lombardi: JENNINGS
Let’s ride the hot hand. Jennings was a monster last week. He might not have good straight-line speed, but he’s a great separator — and that’ll come in handy against all the man-to-man coverage the Patriots run. Also, expect Aiyuk to be a defensive focal point again. That helped set up Jennings for his huge game against L.A.
Kawakami: AIYUK
I missed with him last week, but I’ll pick him again because he’s due for a big game, and the Patriots are pretty good against the run. When the 49ers need yards, I think Purdy will find Aiyuk when he’s wide open this time.
49ers defensive player with the most big plays
We’re defining big plays as sacks + forced fumbles + fumble recoveries + interceptions.
Lombardi: WARNER
The Patriots are a run-heavy team, and that’ll give the star 49ers linebacker plenty of chances to punch the ball out.
Kawakami: NICK BOSA
He seems especially revved up for this one, so I’ll put him down for two sacks, maybe including a forced fumble.
Non-star who makes a big splash
Lombardi: ERIC SAUBERT
George Kittle should be back from his hamstring strain at tight end, but the 49ers won’t want to overextend him. Saubert has shown he can contribute in the passing game and should have opportunities to make plays.
Kawakami: JI’AYIR BROWN
Good thing for the suddenly vulnerable 49ers defense, the Patriots sure don’t threaten defenses downfield. So Brown will be free to chase the ball — maybe for an interception and several big hits at the line.
Game prediction
Lombardi: 49ers 30, Patriots 17
The 49ers offense remains productive, and they’re facing a bad defense this week. It’s the other two phases of the game that are big concerns. But New England’s bruising run game can go only so far by itself.
Kawakami: 49ers 24, Patriots 10
All is not well with the 49ers, but this is absolutely not a matchup that should test their weakest areas. They should get a quick lead and, this time, add to it.