We’re making predictions in the same five categories for every 49ers game so we can track our performance. For last week’s victory over the Patriots, we split — David nailed the Fred Warner call on defense, and Tim guessed that Brock Purdy’s passer rating level would land under 100. We both got a few other things wrong — but we won’t let that stop us.
Here are our predictions for the 49ers’ game against the Cardinals on Sunday.
Purdy’s passer rating over 100
Lombardi: OVER
It usually comes down to whether Purdy throws an interception or not. He was well over 100 last week until the Jabrill Peppers pick on a fourth-quarter throw intended for Brandon Aiyuk. Odds are that Purdy plays a clean game against Arizona’s defense, which ranks No. 30. He finished 20 of 21 the last time he faced the Cardinals at Levi’s Stadium.
Kawakami: OVER
Weird stat: Purdy’s been under this number in the 49ers’ two wins this season and over the number in the two losses. I’ll guess that this streak ends with Purdy hitting 110 or higher this week by tearing up the Cardinals defense on the way to an easy win.
49er with the most yards from scrimmage, rushing and receiving
Lombardi: JORDAN MASON
He’s been a workhorse for the 49ers, and Purdy’s top-notch play, with more deep shots than ever, should open running room against a bottom-barrel defense. The only factor that may slow Mason is the 49ers looking ahead to a quick-turnaround Thursday-night game against the Seattle Seahawks.
Kawakami: AIYUK
I keep picking Aiyuk here, and he keeps putting up low totals. But I think Aiyuk, Purdy, and Kyle Shanahan have the perfect setup this weekend to get him flying. Everybody gets big yards against the Arizona defense. It’s time for the team’s highly paid wide receiver to do it.
49ers defensive player with the most big plays
We’re defining big plays as sacks + forced fumbles + fumble recoveries + interceptions.
Lombardi: NICK BOSA
Last week, Bosa averaged the fastest get-off of any pass rusher over the past seven years, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s what happens when the 49ers stymie the run game and allow Bosa to pin his ears back against opposing quarterbacks. If the 49ers can slow Arizona running back James Conner, it’ll be game on for Bosa.
Kawakami: CHARVARIUS WARD
Warner’s an automatic choice these days — when he’s not dinged up. But that ankle problem likely will slow him down, so I’ll guess that Ward picks off at least one Kyler Murray pass.
Non-star who makes a big splash
Lombardi: MALIK MUSTAPHA
Even if safety Talanoa Hufanga returns from his ankle injury, the 49ers should find a way to keep Mustapha on the field following his impressive starting debut. Maybe they run the same three-safety sets that gave Hufanga his first chance in 2021.
Kawakami: RENARDO GREEN
The 49ers are leaning into this rookie class, and this is a great time to get Green up to speed — especially with that big game in Seattle against the Seahawks’ deep WR group looming just ahead.
Game prediction
Lombardi: 49ers 35, Cardinals 16
Arizona ranks No. 10 in offensive efficiency, so this is a bigger challenge for the 49ers defense than last week’s cakewalk against the Patriots. But the Cardinals are no juggernaut. Murray has struggled beyond scripted opening drives, and Arizona’s defense is straight-up bad. Purdy’s ownership of the Cardinals should continue, and the 49ers defense can continue its steady build.
Kawakami: 49ers 38, Cardinals 17
Arizona’s defense is better than that turkey it put up against Washington last weekend, but maybe not much better. The 49ers are averaging 413.3 yards per game, and 500 should be gettable in this one. If the 49ers play a little bit of defense and don’t make critical special teams errors, this should be a laugher.