It’s part game prep and part team-wide therapy session for the 49ers this week. It’s made them wince. Let’s see if it makes them stronger and better. Let’s see if it produces a victory over the Kansas City Chiefs for the first time in the Kyle Shanahan era, after four grievous losses.
Simply put, the 49ers know they won’t beat the Chiefs on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium — and get fractional consolation for two Super Bowl losses, including February in overtime — if they don’t look back and learn from the stomach-punching losses they’ve taken from Patrick Mahomes & Co.
“I think everyone understands that we’ve lost two Super Bowls to them,” Shanahan said before Wednesday’s practice. “So that can give a little post-traumatic stress when you turn on the tape. I think that’s human nature.
“But you’ve gotta make sure you don’t get caught up in that. This game has nothing to do with past games. That was last year.”
Sunday’s game, of course, is just another moment in a long regular season. The 49ers have fought back to a 3-3 record and first place in the NFC West, while the Chiefs are 5-0, ahead of everybody in the AFC, and coming off a bye week. This inter-conference game likely won’t be all that important for playoff positioning in January and won’t mean much once the playoffs start in January.
But by the look in the 49ers’ eyes Wednesday in the locker room and on the practice field, I can guarantee they will be crestfallen if they can’t find a way to end this losing streak to the Chiefs on Sunday. It won’t be the same as losing a Super Bowl, naturally, but it would increase doubts about their ability to ever get past Kansas City.
I imagine many of those doubts would be centered in 49ers headquarters.
“It’s definitely a little emotional,” Nick Bosa said. “But at this point, it’s just a game. We’re just looking at the tape, trying to learn from it. A lot of similarities from last year. A few new guys, but a really good defense and an offense that obviously has [Mahomes] back there. Always dangerous.”
As Shanahan and Bosa noted, this game isn’t about the past. It’s not about the leads the 49ers held then surrendered to Mahomes in both Super Bowls. Not about the blowout at Levi’s in the 2022 regular season. And not about the 2018 early-season loss in Arrowhead Stadium that included Jimmy Garoppolo’s ACL tear.
But that recent history casts a shadow on the 49ers’ present and future and sets up some leading questions leading into Sunday’s game. Starting with …
Can Shanahan finally outduel Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo?
Shanahan has had so much trouble against Spagnuolo’s blitzing defenses, including critical plays at the end of Super Bowl 58, that he tried to hire him last offseason. That’s true respect. But Spagnuolo re-upped, alongside Reid, and the Chiefs are once again a top-10-ranked defense in almost all categories.
“I think it’s gotten better and better each year,” Shanahan said of Spagnuolo’s defense. “I thought last year was the best defense that we played all year. And I feel that way this year so far.”
The 49ers are once again without the injured Christian McCaffrey for this game, but Brock Purdy is keeping the 49ers’ offensive machine going. It’s up to Shanahan to figure out ways to spread the ball to his playmakers against Spagnuolo’s coverage schemes and keep Spagnuolo’s unpredictable blitzes from getting to Purdy on key passing plays.
It just doesn’t seem mathematically likely that an offensive play caller as sharp as Shanahan would be stumped so consistently by an individual DC, especially with the kinds of playmakers that the 49ers have assembled.
Which leads us to the next question …
Can Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk break loose?
The signature stats of Spagnuolo’s successful shutdown of the 49ers in February: Facing a lot of man-to-man press coverage, Aiyuk had just three catches for 49 yards with a long of 20 yards on six targets and Deebo had three catches for 33 yards with a long of just 12 yards on 11 targets. Deebo also had three carries for eight yards.
That is not good enough for receivers who currently have average annual salaries of $23.85 million (Deebo) and $30 million (Aiyuk). They’re paid to get open, even against a cornerback group as good as the Chiefs’. They’re paid to make plays.
If Aiyuk and Deebo — and Purdy throwing it to them — can’t put together three or four plays longer than 20 yards and at least two longer than 30 yards, the 49ers are probably going to lose this game.
Can Dominick Puni not only survive against Chris Jones but win some battles?
For a team that rarely starts rookies of any kind, especially on the offensive line, Puni’s smooth, powerful performance at right guard in the first six games has been an NFL blessing.
But now he’ll probably spend most of his time on Sunday blocking Jones, the Chiefs’ All-Pro defensive lineman, who in the Super Bowl famously blew up Purdy’s third-down pass in the Red Zone to force the 49ers into a field goal in overtime. Which, of course, set up Mahomes’ game-winning touchdown drive.
If the 49ers get slightly worse than a draw in this matchup and Jones bothers Purdy only a few times, it’d be a big step up from the Super Bowl … and a continued sign of Puni’s bright future.
Can 49ers’ DC Nick Sorensen seal off the perimeter with linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and Dee Winters?
DeMeco Ryans, in his second sterling season as 49ers’ DC, helplessly watched his defense get flummoxed by misdirection and beaten to the perimeter repeatedly by the Chiefs in October 2022 — to the tune of 529 total yards and 44 points. And that was a great DC and great defense.
Can Sorensen, whose unit has been up and down in the first six games of his DC career, seal off those Chiefs’ speedsters by deploying Campbell and Winters in the right spots? (Obviously, Fred Warner is crucial in this, too, but I consider him essentially a co-DC with his elevated leadership responsibilities.) Can Sorensen find a way to stop Mahomes from breaking free when he keeps it on the read option — unlike what happened to DC Steve Wilks and the 49ers’ defense in the Super Bowl last February on fourth-and-1 in OT?
Sorensen hasn’t quite won over 49ers fans, and his reputation around the league is TBD. A huge and airtight 49ers defensive performance Sunday would begin to change that. Another Chiefs TD party would … not.
If Mahomes gets hot again, can Purdy go throw-for-throw with the GOAT?
Purdy wasn’t one of the top five reasons the 49ers lost Super Bowl 58, but he could’ve been better. That showed up in the end, when Mahomes went incandescent and Purdy merely remained human.
And no, he’s not Mahomes and shouldn’t be asked to single-handedly match the greatest QB of this era. But Purdy’s had his shot at it once and didn’t shrink from the moment. He didn’t win, but you can imagine Purdy lifting his performance every time he’s on the field against Mahomes. Starting with Sunday.