Steve Kerr probably can’t indulge himself and his roster by going with a 12-man rotation all season — that’s too many mouths to feed every night, often too little time for a stalwart veteran to get into full rhythm, and too many chances for a back-end guy to turn in a clunker that screws up a tense game.
Kerr will eventually whittle it down to nine or 10 players in the main rotation. We saw the foundation of that at the end of the first half on Wednesday, when Kerr closed with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and Buddy Hield — before subbing in Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II for extra defense. Add in Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson, and there’s a logical 10-man endpoint for Kerr, pending injuries or other variables.
But it’s easy to see why Kerr went so deep in the season-opening 139-104 blowout victory in Portland — and why he plans to keep going with this for as long as it works. He really does have 12 very solid players who seem to blend well together in most configurations. And it definitely would be difficult to countenance (or explain) a full benching for, let’s say, Moses Moody, Kevon Looney, GP2, or Kyle Anderson.
“Two days ago, I was thinking, well, maybe I’ll just play 10 and I’ll just have to tell two of these guys that they’re going to sit,” Kerr told reporters after the game. ”And I couldn’t justify that. … This is as deep a team as I’ve ever coached, and we’ve gotta lean into that.”
It’s not just about hurt feelings, though Kerr always has to take the locker-room mood into account. It’s just clear that playing to their depth to start this season could have major benefits for the Warriors now and later in the season — as long as Kerr can keep all the plates in the air at once or until injuries and slumps start to winnow things down naturally.
Let’s take a look at some of the short- and long-term consequences of the 12-man plan:
It’s the easiest way to deal with the Kuminga conundrum
Kerr jammed Kuminga into the starting lineup by going big on Wednesday, alongside TJD and Draymond on the frontline, and by moving Wiggins to the shooting-guard spot. That put Kuminga at small forward, which still isn’t ideal for him and clogs up the spacing for this unit around Curry. The Warriors could get away with that against the Trail Blazers. But against good teams? Not as likely. But that comes later.
On Wednesday, Kuminga was the only Warrior who wasn’t on the “plus” side in the plus-minus, registering a neutral 0 in 20 minutes — which means the Warriors were +35 in the 28 minutes he didn’t play.
You can take that however you wish; Kuminga is a huge talent and surely will have better games than this one. But he doesn’t seem to blend too well with the Curry group, and I’m not sure that Kuminga is a perfect fit for what looks like a very dynamic second unit either. I don’t think Kerr has figured this one out.
So the compromise: Put Kuminga into the starting lineup to make sure he receives early minutes, get him out in the first sub (for Hield on Wednesday), get him back in for a shift with the second unit, then go with other options at money time to close halves and games until and unless Kuminga proves he can properly complement a Curry group. That’s about 20 to 24 minutes a game, surely fewer than Kuminga wants, but it seems about right at this point.
The starting spot should keep Kuminga sharp and engaged for the times when Curry or Draymond are flat or absent and the Warriors really need Kuminga’s unique ability to get to the basket. But keeping Kuminga from a full-scale role opens up more minutes for Moody and GP2 especially, and they deserve them.
This is a narrow tightrope for Kerr to walk because he’s gone back and forth with Kuminga’s playing time for several years now. The Warriors love Kuminga’s skill set, but they’re still not sure about his value. There was no way they could commit to a massive extension at the recent deadline, and now Kuminga is headed toward restricted free agency next July (or possibly a trade before that).
He’s still floating in the NBA in-between world. Kerr has to give Kuminga minutes, but it’s better for the team if Kerr splits up the role among two or three players. That’s how you get a 12-man rotation to open a season.
A dangerous second unit changes everything
When was the last time the Warriors’ second unit really attacked the opponent instead of just trying to hold on while Curry rested (and often failed)? I can’t really remember — even during the height of the dynasty — a reserve combo as dangerous as Hield (5 of 7 from 3-point distance, 22 points) and Melton (4 assists and 3 steals in 19 minutes) looked on Wednesday.
Portland is awful, and it’s not like the Warriors’ second unit blew down the doors (they were +3 in the 6:53 that Curry rested in the first half). But you could feel the stress that the Trail Blazers were under trying to defend Hield, Melton, and Kuminga. And that matters.
When a fresh Curry checked back in, the stage was set. The Warriors immediately went on a huge run that never really stopped. That’s how a good team builds leads and keeps them, especially on the road. And that’s how the Warriors can avoid some of those close finishes that helped make last season so fretful and tiring.
You know the stat: The Warriors played an NBA-high 48 clutch games last season (and were 24-24 in those games). The NBA defines a “clutch game” as one when the score is within 5 points or fewer with five minutes or less remaining. Just a slight decrease for the Warriors this season to, say, 42 of these games (which is how many clutch games they had in their title-winning 2021-22 season), would be a relief for everybody.
Curry rested the final 16 minutes
Earlier this week, Kerr said he wanted to keep Curry around 32 minutes a game, at least for now. On Wednesday, Curry played 25 minutes before he went out in the third quarter and didn’t have to go back into the game. This also tells us Kerr’s plan for Curry to return to the court in non-blowouts — with about seven minutes left in the fourth quarter.
I’m not so sure about the spacing in the Warriors’ Game 1 starting lineup. Without Klay Thompson (and with Kerr saving Hield mostly for the non-Curry minutes), the Warriors are setting Curry up to get bombarded by defenses, which, to this point, don’t have to worry much about the other four starters killing them from deep. (Wiggins was 4 of 7 from 3-point Wednesday, but I’m sure opponent defenses will be happy to wait and see if that lasts.)
I think Melton could fit in the starting lineup. But it also seems like Kerr is saving him to be a pedal-to-the-metal point guard in the non-Curry minutes, which, again, stresses the defense at a time when they’re not used to being stressed.
And Melton wasn’t even the Warriors’ best backup guard on Wednesday.
Podziemski didn’t score a point, but he was +34 in his 25 minutes, playing a lot of minutes both with and without Curry. His game (7 rebounds, 4 assists) defined the value of the plus-minus stat — the Warriors gained significant ground every time he was in, especially the pivotal run in the second quarter, and his point total was irrelevant.
There will be nights when Kerr needs Curry to play well more than 32 minutes. But if Podziemski and Melton play like this all season, there won’t be as many of them. And Curry will have less injury risk and should have some very lively legs going into April.