Kawakami’s 49ers offseason predictions: Adding a Bosa, Purdy’s deal date, and more

Call this the John Lynch moment.

The 49ers’ general manager, of course, has been one of the franchise’s busiest and most important figures since he and Kyle Shanahan took over the football operation in February 2017. But these next few months figure to be some of Lynch’s busiest and most important.

This offseason already feels like a pivot point for this era. Deebo Samuel is recently gone, there are loud rumblings of a financial pullback amid the start of crucial negotiations with Brock Purdy, the 49ers hold the 11th pick in the draft, and Shanahan and Lynch head into their ninth season together dying to erase the memories of last year’s 6-11 tumble. Really, if you look closely, this offseason was set up as a pivot point.

And Lynch is set up to be the key player — he’s the only guy who has the relationships to hammer out compromises across the franchise and who can keep this tied together from ownership to the financial side to Shanahan’s coaching staff to the locker room. Lynch has already been doing this stuff. He’s got a lot more of it coming right now.

In some ways, this situation is relatively comparable to the months leading up to the doomed split with Jim Harbaugh after the 2014 season — ownership was tired of him and more tired of spending so much money without a Super Bowl title; Harbaugh wasn’t thrilled to feel the squeeze and let everybody know it. Shanahan isn’t nearly as combustible as Harbaugh, but there are some similarities to their driven, grinding, mostly successful 49ers tenures and anguished losses. Big difference: Harbaugh was stuck with Trent Baalke as his GM and Shanahan has Lynch — which is one large reason this era has already lasted double the length as the Harbaugh run.

Baalke worked against Harbaugh. And York sided with Baalke. There will be no such back-stabbing in this situation, but there are pressures. The 49ers have to win this season. York, Lynch, and Shanahan have to figure out how to keep the talent level up while dropping the cash spending. They have to do it together. And the best — probably the only — way this can happen is if Lynch is the buffer, bargainer, brains, and chief diplomatic fixer.

With that in mind, let’s fire off some predictions about the 49ers’ biggest decisions this offseason, obviously knowing that trading Deebo for a fifth-round pick (and taking a huge dead-cap hit but saving a big chunk of cash) has already kicked things off with a bang.

After so many recent injury-plagued seasons, he probably isn’t the first choice to fill the 49ers’ need on the defensive line. The last thing the 49ers should want is another big-name, big-salary player with questionable health going into 2025. But the dream of pairing Nick and Joey Bosa together might be just too great a draw, especially if the 49ers can get Joey on a moderately priced one-year deal with incentives tacked on. No big risk. Potential huge dividends. Classic Lynch-ian compromise.

First, though, the 49ers will see if it’s possible to trade for Myles Garrett or Trey Hendrickson. I imagine they’ll offer the 11th pick plus other pieces, which might get Cincinnati talking about Hendrickson. But the 30-year-old Hendrickson’s going to want a huge new contract; with the Nick Bosa deal already heavy on their books, I don’t know if the 49ers will be ready to pull the trigger on the full cost. The 49ers just bailed out of their deal with Javon Hargrave, their big veteran D-line add from two offseasons ago when he was — guess what — 30 years old. I don’t think there’s a huge appetite for experiencing that again.

If I had to guess, the 49ers’ top choice probably would’ve been Maxx Crosby, who is only 27 with a lot of prime years left. But he just signed a three-year, $106.5 million deal that vaulted him past Nick Bosa’s record annual average value for a defensive player.

They can do it, as The Standard’s David Lombardi explains, with a smaller dead-cap hit ($18.4 million) than many of us realized due to some tricky cap mechanics. I understand there’s some desire inside 49ers HQ to move on from Aiyuk after they felt they got burned by last year’s negotiations.

But Aiyuk isn’t exactly at peak trade value as he rehabs from a torn ACL — he might not be ready until a month or so into the regular season — and it’d be self-defeating to discard him for anything less than a second-day draft pick (which I don’t think they’re going to get).

If the 49ers trade Aiyuk so soon after trading Deebo, they’d be absorbing almost $50 million in combined dead money on this year’s cap to not have either on the team anymore. That doesn’t seem too wise. I think cooler heads should and will prevail.

Lockett, at 32, won’t be as good this season as Deebo was at his peak — but neither will Deebo. And Lockett probably won’t be too pricey after a relative down year in 2024. But he’s always been a productive receiver and could be a solid starter while the 49ers wait for Aiyuk. And when Aiyuk’s back, Lockett would fit in nicely on the depth chart with Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall.

Dalman is only 26, seems right for the 49ers’ scheme, and would fill a giant need in the middle of the 49ers’ offensive line.

The 49ers are strict about specific arm-length requirements on the line of scrimmage, but they should toss them all away if Graham slips to the 11th pick after his arms measured only 32 inches at the NFL Scouting Combine and he weighed a lot less than expected.

He’s just a really good player, though, and the 49ers should be elated if teams ahead of them back off of the most impressive and consistent DT in this draft. Yes, Graham could be the 49ers’ best interior lineman since DeForest Buckner. A thought: Javon Kinlaw had all the best physical measurements (nearly 35-inch arms) and never worked out after the 49ers drafted him in 2020.

Not long ago, I was projecting an early-April resolution to this situation. But even then, I thought that there could be some problems, particularly if the 49ers started mentioning that there’s no rush because Purdy’s already under contract for $5.2 million this season. And, well, we are very much starting to hear that, including from Lynch himself last week.

This is obviously a negotiating ploy and not a subtle one. The 49ers are tacitly suggesting that Purdy can either take their offer (whatever it is, presumably at least $40 million AAV or so) … or play for $5.2 million and risk getting hurt or having a bad year and watching his value sink.

But almost all good QB1s get new deals when they’re eligible for one — unless the team doesn’t think the QB is all that valuable. Is that the message the 49ers want to send here? We shall see. It’s negotiations. You never make your best offer right away. I think Purdy will seek something near $50 million a year or more. I think he’s earned the right to demand it. I think the 49ers can get there. That’s what top-12 QBs make. But how quickly will it happen? And will there be hard feelings and missed practices along the way?

This is where Lynch comes in. He has the credibility with York and Purdy to make sure the negotiations aren’t too bruising. He can convince the 49ers’ negotiators not to try to shove around their QB. Lynch can try to nudge Purdy’s camp to the right spot, too. There is a pathway for this to happen, with both sides making some compromises. You can’t have your QB holding out. You can’t have bitterness. It looks bad. It looks cheap. It is cheap.

I think they’ll get it done. And I think Lynch will be one of the main guys who gets it done.